theweatheroutlook

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Brian Gaze
07 February 2023 18:54:50

Would reckon get to low to mid teens? Today Nuneaton hit 10C from -3 under full sun.  If the same at the weekend if night not tok cold then possible no heating day.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



It felt quite warm this afternoon in the sun.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+1
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
07 February 2023 20:19:09

It felt quite warm this afternoon in the sun.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

It did!  I sat with a coffee on my sister’s patio late morning and remarked how warm the sun was!  👍
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Quantum
07 February 2023 23:13:06

Look at my sig! The single entry wasn't even snow, I include all wintry precip including ice pellets!

On the plus side there is now a trend towards a bit more amplification. The 12Z is trying to form a siberian high. I mean nowhere near there yet, but maybe 3 upgrades away from something really good?
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



2 upgrades away now...

Is something brewing?
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Matty H
08 February 2023 00:16:19

I'm with you on the underwhelming bus.

The odds for snow here from an easterly are poor anyway, but 2013 gave hope. Sadly, 2018 brought just a few falls of 1-2cm.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



We usually get tons of the stuff here from sliding lows and fronts butting and stalling into the cold air, as we did twice in 2018

Hopefully absolutely nothing comes of it and we end up with average or above average temps. You can feel the warmth in the sun already now when stood in it. This week has been amazing so far. The finish line is fast approaching for this winter. 
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
+1
BJBlake
08 February 2023 00:40:49

2 upgrades away now...

Is something brewing?

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

There is certainly a southerly push right up into the high arctic - reaching Svalbard, so the raw ingredients are showing signs of coming into the bowl, but the GFS is thus far missing the Magi-mixer, but as you say - a couple of runs more. Is the Euro slug/ Azores high monster, that scourge of the climate changed NW Europe winter, wallowing too deep to shift, and set to spoil the cake?  
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
ballamar
08 February 2023 06:57:31
Not sure if I really want another carrot dangled as it is being again. Of course we all do it’s still winter !!
Brian Gaze
08 February 2023 07:12:19
The positive anomaly is notable. This could be an exceptionally mild February. 

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
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doctormog
08 February 2023 07:40:04

The positive anomaly is notable. This could be an exceptionally mild February. 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Not only that but also mostly dry over a large part of the country away from some NWern parts.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
speckledjim
08 February 2023 08:29:46

Not only that but also mostly dry over a large part of the country away from some NWern parts.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


It's been weeks since we've had any meaningful rain, however, our reservoir levels are at 93% (91% this time last year).
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
johncs2016
08 February 2023 08:44:49

The positive anomaly is notable. This could be an exceptionally mild February. 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


UserPostedImage
Meanwhile, here is the latest GFS ensemble chart for here in Edinburgh.

Not looking good for anyone who is looking for some late season cold weather and so given that we are now just three weeks away from the start of the meteorological spring, we might as well say that winter is now over if that verifies (although, you could argue that for some parts of the UK, winter was effectively "over" after that December cold spell which ended just before Christmas).
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Chunky Pea
08 February 2023 09:03:08

Not only that but also mostly dry over a large part of the country away from some NWern parts.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


The banality of most of this winter is stark. Every day brings the same weather. Bit of cloud. Bit of wet sun. The odd raindrop hitting you in the face out of nowhere. Snore galore.
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
The Beast from the East
08 February 2023 09:38:55

The positive anomaly is notable. This could be an exceptionally mild February. 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Was it Feb 98 that we got up to 18C?
I think in the modern are we could easily smash 20 with a similar pattern. The older I get the more I hate the cold and seem to crave sun and heat, so bring on an early spring and another record breaking year of heat. 
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
David M Porter
08 February 2023 09:43:22

Was it Feb 98 that we got up to 18C?
I think in the modern are we could easily smash 20 with a similar pattern. The older I get the more I hate the cold and seem to crave sun and heat, so bring on an early spring and another record breaking year of heat. 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



I think that has already happened, unless my recollection is wrong.

I'm fairly sure that 20C or 21C was reached during the record-warm spell of mid-February 2019, around the same time that the previous record was set in 1998.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Quantum
08 February 2023 09:48:07
I always say to muggles (non model watchers) that very cold and very warm weather (particularly in spring and autumn) are friends with each other. In the spring of 2021 which was the snowiest of my lifetime there were warm spells prior. I mean for us its easy to understand why, the same thing that brings unusually warm weather is just an anticyclone repositioning away from very cold weather; so if its very mild (again especially in spring and autumn) then chances are its blocked and that always leaves open the door for things to turn very cold...
 
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Quantum
08 February 2023 09:49:23

There is certainly a southerly push right up into the high arctic - reaching Svalbard, so the raw ingredients are showing signs of coming into the bowl, but the GFS is thus far missing the Magi-mixer, but as you say - a couple of runs more. Is the Euro slug/ Azores high monster, that scourge of the climate changed NW Europe winter, wallowing too deep to shift, and set to spoil the cake?  

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 



6Z looks to be another upgrade.

Could be one of those days where it suddenly flips from boring to interesting. Hopefully anyway.
 
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Quantum
08 February 2023 09:52:13
Have a look at P48 on the ECMWF. To me this seems like a plausible evolution, and as I say I think we are only 1 upgrade away from seeing this appear quite widely on the ensembles.


UserPostedImage
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
The Beast from the East
08 February 2023 09:54:40

I think that has already happened, unless my recollection is wrong.

I'm fairly sure that 20C or 21C was reached during the record-warm spell of mid-February 2019, around the same time that the previous record was set in 1998.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



Yes, I had forgotten about that. Could be on course for a repeat if the Merkel slug/Bartlett remains in the right place
 
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
warrenb
08 February 2023 09:58:16
Looking lovely for the foreseeable. Nice pleasantly warm days.
Tonbridge 45m 
ballamar
08 February 2023 11:13:53
Bog standard on the op run - any blocking quickly pushed away.
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
08 February 2023 11:41:22

The banality of most of this winter is stark. Every day brings the same weather. Bit of cloud. Bit of wet sun. The odd raindrop hitting you in the face out of nowhere. Snore galore.

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



Perhaps it's just in this region then but I'm loving the weather we've had since mid January. Mostly dry with plenty of sunshine (and a few cloudy days) , varying between mild and cold with some decent overnight frosts. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
+1
ballamar
08 February 2023 13:35:37
Thought I would do a review of GEFS 6z and prospects for cold

Not good!!

more in depth analysis later on 12z
Rob K
08 February 2023 15:10:37

I think that has already happened, unless my recollection is wrong.

I'm fairly sure that 20C or 21C was reached during the record-warm spell of mid-February 2019, around the same time that the previous record was set in 1998.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Yes, 2019 was exceptional with several record-breaking days. I remember sitting in a pub garden in a T-shirt on Sunday 24th and that wasn't even the warmest day.

From Trevor Harley's site:

On Thursday 21 Scotland's record maximum (since 1897) was broken, with 18.3C recorded at Aboyne (Aberdeenshire). On the 22nd a new Welsh record is set with 18.1C at Gogerddan (Cardigan Bay), and then broken again with 19.1 on the 24th also at Gogerddan. On Monday the 25th 20.6C broke the 20C record in Trawgoedd (and 20.4 in Northolt, London). Tuesday 26th was then exceptional: 21.2C at Kew Gardens in London, and 20.8 in Porthmadog (Wales). 

And of course the month started with deep snow on the ground! We had a a couple of inches overnight 31 Jan - 1 Feb and then a serious dump on the night of 1-2 Feb. It took me about an hour and a half to get the 4 miles home from Fleet station with my bike as the snow was too deep even to push the bike through easily. 2 Feb was a glorious day with 8 inches of snow over Basingstoke way and brilliant sunshine.

Feb 2019 was probably the best winter month of the last decade - it had everything.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Quantum
08 February 2023 15:28:38
ICON12Z looks a bit more amplified than ICON6Z and alot more amplifed than ICON0Z.

Still feels a few upgrades away from anything good. GFS6Z was actually a downgrade on GFS0Z.
 
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Quantum
08 February 2023 15:57:40
GFS12Z definitely more amplified than GFS6Z, looks fairly comparable to the 0Z which was the most amplified GFSOP so far.
 
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
The Beast from the East
08 February 2023 17:45:48
Some serious warmth possible

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=1 
 
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

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