Most forget 2018 had 2, yes 2 BFTE episodes....beginning of march and mid march
 

One was record-breakingly cold aloft, brought -14C to Kent and a few ice days - a true Beast, albeit cruelly cut off in its prime.

The second saw no ice days, wasn't that cold and saw some slush. Less a beast, more a tired old moggy!

Incidentally, the fact it took record-breaking low 1000-500 thickness and 850s to bring a winter wonderland means I won't get excited about prospects for the end of Feb this year... the odds on breaking two records within 5 years are vanishingly small.

---

One was record-breakingly cold aloft, brought -14C to Kent and a few ice days - a true Beast, albeit cruelly cut off in its prime.

The second saw no ice days, wasn't that cold and saw some slush. Less a beast, more a tired old moggy!

Incidentally, the fact it took record-breaking low 1000-500 thickness and 850s to bring a winter wonderland means I won't get excited about prospects for the end of Feb this year... the odds on breaking two records within 5 years are vanishingly small.

Yes but for some of us (okay me) it was very underwhelming. On the other hand.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2005/cfsr/CFSR_1_2005022106_2.png 

This brought feet of snow to my area. Uppers were cold, but not excessively so.

Though I will admit the maximum temps of 3-5C during the day made everything a bit drippy.

---

slowly slowly...

Confidence in the forecast around the turn of the month becomes much lower, and whilst the more likely scenario is one of a continuation of similar conditions experienced through the latter half of February, there is a low probability of some much colder weather developing.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Tue 7 Feb 2023

---

Yes but for some of us (okay me) it was very underwhelming.

I'm with you on the underwhelming bus.

The odds for snow here from an easterly are poor anyway, but 2013 gave hope. Sadly, 2018 brought just a few falls of 1-2cm.

---

Looks potentially spring-like at times this weekend in parts of the UK. 

---

I'm with you on the underwhelming bus.

The odds for snow here from an easterly are poor anyway, but 2013 gave hope. Sadly, 2018 brought just a few falls of 1-2cm.

Yeh but with all due respect, you live in the NW so don't expect to do well during an easterly.

2018 should have delivered, but it was painful watching everywhere else get loads of snow. You've probably done okay this winter, I never get snow during polar maritime outbreaks, but a scandi high should deliver which made 2018 all the more dissapointing.
 

---

Yeh but with all due respect, you live in the NW so don't expect to do well during an easterly.

2018 should have delivered, but it was painful watching everywhere else get loads of snow. You've probably done okay this winter, I never get snow during polar maritime outbreaks, but a scandi high should deliver which made 2018 all the more dissapointing.
 

I know. That's what  said 😁

We've not done well at all here this winter. A few of 1cm falls and that's it (one coinciding with our flight to Paris, robbing us of most of a day of a long weekend because Manc Airport are penny-pinching arseholes). That fall did at least freeze and stay on the ground for a week - but then it turned depressingly mild for Xmas.

I don't think many did that well out of either cold spell. We went across to Haworth in January, and whilst there was snow from Rochdale upwards (altitude-wise), it was only perhaps 5-7cm even over the tops (and in Haworth, so it did make it to Yorkshire)

---

I know. That's what  said 😁

We've not done well at all here this winter. A few of 1cm falls and that's it (one coinciding with our flight to Paris, robbing us of most of a day of a long weekend because Manc Airport are penny-pinching arseholes). That fall did at least freeze and stay on the ground for a week - but then it turned depressingly mild for Xmas.

I don't think many did that well out of either cold spell. We went across to Haworth in January, and whilst there was snow from Rochdale upwards (altitude-wise), it was only perhaps 5-7cm even over the tops (and in Haworth, so it did make it to Yorkshire)

Look at my sig! The single entry wasn't even snow, I include all wintry precip including ice pellets!

On the plus side there is now a trend towards a bit more amplification. The 12Z is trying to form a siberian high. I mean nowhere near there yet, but maybe 3 upgrades away from something really good?
 

---

This sort of thing starting to show up now. Again its not that far away from a cold spell, needs a few more upgrades in the right direction.
 

---

Looks potentially spring-like at times this weekend in parts of the UK. 

Would reckon get to low to mid teens? Today Nuneaton hit 10C from -3 under full sun.  If the same at the weekend if night not that cold then possible no heating day.

Would reckon get to low to mid teens? Today Nuneaton hit 10C from -3 under full sun.  If the same at the weekend if night not tok cold then possible no heating day.

It felt quite warm this afternoon in the sun.

---

It felt quite warm this afternoon in the sun.

It did!  I sat with a coffee on my sister’s patio late morning and remarked how warm the sun was!  👍

---

Look at my sig! The single entry wasn't even snow, I include all wintry precip including ice pellets!

On the plus side there is now a trend towards a bit more amplification. The 12Z is trying to form a siberian high. I mean nowhere near there yet, but maybe 3 upgrades away from something really good?
 

2 upgrades away now...

Is something brewing?

---

I'm with you on the underwhelming bus.

The odds for snow here from an easterly are poor anyway, but 2013 gave hope. Sadly, 2018 brought just a few falls of 1-2cm.

We usually get tons of the stuff here from sliding lows and fronts butting and stalling into the cold air, as we did twice in 2018

Hopefully absolutely nothing comes of it and we end up with average or above average temps. You can feel the warmth in the sun already now when stood in it. This week has been amazing so far. The finish line is fast approaching for this winter. 

---

2 upgrades away now...

Is something brewing?

There is certainly a southerly push right up into the high arctic - reaching Svalbard, so the raw ingredients are showing signs of coming into the bowl, but the GFS is thus far missing the Magi-mixer, but as you say - a couple of runs more. Is the Euro slug/ Azores high monster, that scourge of the climate changed NW Europe winter, wallowing too deep to shift, and set to spoil the cake?  

---

Not sure if I really want another carrot dangled as it is being again. Of course we all do it’s still winter !!

The positive anomaly is notable. This could be an exceptionally mild February. 

---

The positive anomaly is notable. This could be an exceptionally mild February. 

Not only that but also mostly dry over a large part of the country away from some NWern parts.

---

Not only that but also mostly dry over a large part of the country away from some NWern parts.

It's been weeks since we've had any meaningful rain, however, our reservoir levels are at 93% (91% this time last year).

---

The positive anomaly is notable. This could be an exceptionally mild February. 

Meanwhile, here is the latest GFS ensemble chart for here in Edinburgh.

Not looking good for anyone who is looking for some late season cold weather and so given that we are now just three weeks away from the start of the meteorological spring, we might as well say that winter is now over if that verifies (although, you could argue that for some parts of the UK, winter was effectively "over" after that December cold spell which ended just before Christmas).

---