Plenty of ensemble support this time (18z)for the cold GFS op run. Be interesting over the next couple of days to see if the other models (mainly ECM and UKMO) go down this route or not, or meet halfway.
No support at all or very little - Op was a cold outlier wasn't it? 18z if that's what you're referring too?
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I am ready for more chopping and changing but ENS members have trended colder in medium term - the models are all over the place. I think there is a lot of confusion following this warming of Stratosphere and what's really confusing the models is this deep pool of cold airmass heading into N, and NE America/Canada which is also helping to fuel up the jet which could be why the models are flip flopping each run? Furthermore, the MJO is in phase 3.5 which doesn't favour cold weather for NW Europe but then again we have weaker PV and there could be another stratospheric warming occurring around middle of February - but will split the already weakened PV and reverse zonal flow to bring us a cold end to February this time? - Time will tell!?
At least the PV has been wounded and significantly weaker than before this stratospheric warming last week so shouldn't take too much of a warming to split it this time IMO.
Edited by user
02 February 2023 01:24:10
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