Quantum
02 February 2023 14:35:52
ECM6Z has a weaker lobe...
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Brian Gaze
02 February 2023 14:36:07
The GEFS ensemble was upgraded last October. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
ballamar
02 February 2023 15:14:52
ICON first nail in the cold spell coffin!! More to come
moomin75
02 February 2023 15:22:55
Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Yup, complete collapse to the milder scenario, with only the op run and a couple of other stragglers preserving a brief cold plunge, and I would expect those to have vanished by the 12Z. So predictable.


Never bought into those fantasy charts that GFS was showing.

Writing really is well and truly on the wall now for this winter, another completely snowless one IMBY, although I accept other areas have had a bit.

Another poor winter looks done and dusted though, now looking forward to spring and summer, and hopefully something cheery.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
warrenb
02 February 2023 15:28:03
Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

The GEFS ensemble was upgraded last October. 


Thanks for the info.
Downpour
02 February 2023 15:54:58
Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Never bought into those fantasy charts that GFS was showing.

Writing really is well and truly on the wall now for this winter, another completely snowless one IMBY, although I accept other areas have had a bit.

Another poor winter looks done and dusted though


, now looking forward to spring and summer, and
hopefully something cheery.



The Moomintroll does NOT see his shadow
Chingford
London E4
147ft
nsrobins
02 February 2023 15:57:02
From UKM to extended:
’There is a small and possibly diminishing chance of much colder conditions for a time across the south.’

Maybe another thing that’s diminishing is the reputation of the GFS model. We’re not out of the game, but we’re definitely looking for our hat.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Ally Pally Snowman
02 February 2023 16:37:11
Final capitulation from the GFS 12z.  Rather sad really. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
The Beast from the East
02 February 2023 16:52:30
GEM offers some hope longer term
GFS is still pretty cold and frosty for the south as will UKMO
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
nsrobins
02 February 2023 17:38:20
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Final capitulation from the GFS 12z.  Rather sad really. 


There are still a few of the suite that try to keep the flame burning, but only a few.
GFS is like ‘if you run with the devil, expect to get burnt.’
 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gandalf The White
02 February 2023 17:42:21
Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

There are still a few of the suite that try to keep the flame burning, but only a few.
GFS is like ‘if you run with the devil, expect to get burnt.’
 



Always better to walk behind from a safe distance and wait for the wheels to fall off….
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Hippydave
02 February 2023 17:59:02
Not an unexpected GFS set today but shame it didn't pull off an unexpected coup😄

The 0z ECM ens IMBY showed a fairly clear signal for chilly (at the surface at least) HP for a few days from Monday, with increasing scatter thereafter and more chance of unsettled weather. Just looking at the T240 ECM op from this morning and the hemisphere view is quite interesting IMO - the PV has finished wandering eastwards from Canada although a weaker PV lobe (word of the day) remains, with another love over Russia/Siberia. There's a weakish but fairly large area of HP over the pole between the two lobes and it's gradually extending itself towards Scandinavia. 

As it stands the Canadian remnants are spitting too much energy in to the Atlantic and there's a whopping Azores HP too but it's not an unpromising chart exactly.

All in all though re mid term pattern, I'd say a 'win' for the ens sets (sort of including the GEFS as they were never solidly cold although more keen than ECM). The most likely solution always looked like a few days of chilly HP before a gradual decline to more unsettled and unless something flips that looks like what we're going to get.
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
tallyho_83
02 February 2023 19:12:59
Looks like zonal winds will take a dive again - So maybe Another SSW possibility this time splitting the PV and reversing zonal winds after mid month - maybe could give us a colder end to February and by then the MJO should be out of 3-4 phase? I don't know much about this...
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Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


ballamar
02 February 2023 19:47:27
Not sure if anyone took GFS Stella runs that seriously but they were fun to look at
fairweather
02 February 2023 19:56:09
Shows that 7 days away is still too far away for cold spell prediction even with the latest super computers. Not really any better than the Home Service forecast 60 years go to be honest, in that respect.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
tallyho_83
02 February 2023 20:11:34
Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Not sure if anyone took GFS Stella runs that seriously but they were fun to look at



Yes less than a day ago we were seeing many GFS ENS going below -10c @ 850hpa with a few going down to -14c or -16c uppers plunging us into the freezer! Today or latest 12z we only have one going down to -10c and that's the control!

 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


TPentlow
02 February 2023 20:22:44
Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Looks like zonal winds will take a dive again - So maybe Another SSW possibility this time splitting the PV and reversing zonal winds after mid month - maybe could give us a colder end to February and by then the MJO should be out of 3-4 phase? I don't know much about this...

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I agree. I’ve often thought that this winter has been similar in some respects to 2017/18 and I think we’ll get a good easterly shot at the end of this month or beginning of March.
________________________________________________
Tom (North Northants - 130m asl)
Karl Guille
02 February 2023 20:49:22
Shows how altering just one small component from the model run can make all the difference.  TBF the GFS was largely alone in its predicitions so there has been no major backdown by the models, just a correction by one!   
St. Sampson
Guernsey
DPower
02 February 2023 22:02:58
A blended solution it is then. No model has covered itself in glory the last few days. The gfs is what most on this forum would love to see so is the bigger disappointment but with any modelled cold spell (especially a Scandi high ) for the UK their always needs to be cross model agreement from all three. 
This willy waving crap from some quarters ( all hail the Euro's the gfs is crud) admittedly far worse on the other forum is completely tiresome and juvenile. Go back three days or so and see what the ecm was showing for later next week lol.
Anyway moving on, who's up for another BFTE 18 style freeze again. Early days but if the latest 12z gfs strat run is anything to go by then  come late Feb we could be heading into the freezer. 
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