theweatheroutlook

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Downpour
02 February 2023 15:54:58

Never bought into those fantasy charts that GFS was showing.

Writing really is well and truly on the wall now for this winter, another completely snowless one IMBY, although I accept other areas have had a bit.

Another poor winter looks done and dusted though


, now looking forward to spring and summer, and
hopefully something cheery.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



The Moomintroll does NOT see his shadow
Chingford
London E4
147ft
nsrobins
02 February 2023 15:57:02
From UKM to extended:
’There is a small and possibly diminishing chance of much colder conditions for a time across the south.’

Maybe another thing that’s diminishing is the reputation of the GFS model. We’re not out of the game, but we’re definitely looking for our hat.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Ally Pally Snowman
02 February 2023 16:37:11
Final capitulation from the GFS 12z.  Rather sad really. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
The Beast from the East
02 February 2023 16:52:30
GEM offers some hope longer term
GFS is still pretty cold and frosty for the south as will UKMO
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
nsrobins
02 February 2023 17:38:20

Final capitulation from the GFS 12z.  Rather sad really. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


There are still a few of the suite that try to keep the flame burning, but only a few.
GFS is like ‘if you run with the devil, expect to get burnt.’
 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gandalf The White
02 February 2023 17:42:21

There are still a few of the suite that try to keep the flame burning, but only a few.
GFS is like ‘if you run with the devil, expect to get burnt.’
 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Always better to walk behind from a safe distance and wait for the wheels to fall off….
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
Hippydave
02 February 2023 17:59:02
Not an unexpected GFS set today but shame it didn't pull off an unexpected coup😄

The 0z ECM ens IMBY showed a fairly clear signal for chilly (at the surface at least) HP for a few days from Monday, with increasing scatter thereafter and more chance of unsettled weather. Just looking at the T240 ECM op from this morning and the hemisphere view is quite interesting IMO - the PV has finished wandering eastwards from Canada although a weaker PV lobe (word of the day) remains, with another love over Russia/Siberia. There's a weakish but fairly large area of HP over the pole between the two lobes and it's gradually extending itself towards Scandinavia. 

As it stands the Canadian remnants are spitting too much energy in to the Atlantic and there's a whopping Azores HP too but it's not an unpromising chart exactly.

All in all though re mid term pattern, I'd say a 'win' for the ens sets (sort of including the GEFS as they were never solidly cold although more keen than ECM). The most likely solution always looked like a few days of chilly HP before a gradual decline to more unsettled and unless something flips that looks like what we're going to get.
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
tallyho_83
02 February 2023 19:12:59
Looks like zonal winds will take a dive again - So maybe Another SSW possibility this time splitting the PV and reversing zonal winds after mid month - maybe could give us a colder end to February and by then the MJO should be out of 3-4 phase? I don't know much about this...
UserPostedImage
UserPostedImagehttp://www.weatheriscool.com/prod/gfs/eps/strat/u10serie_gefsonly.png

UserPostedImage 

UserPostedImage
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


+1
ballamar
02 February 2023 19:47:27
Not sure if anyone took GFS Stella runs that seriously but they were fun to look at
fairweather
02 February 2023 19:56:09
Shows that 7 days away is still too far away for cold spell prediction even with the latest super computers. Not really any better than the Home Service forecast 60 years go to be honest, in that respect.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
tallyho_83
02 February 2023 20:11:34

Not sure if anyone took GFS Stella runs that seriously but they were fun to look at

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Yes less than a day ago we were seeing many GFS ENS going below -10c @ 850hpa with a few going down to -14c or -16c uppers plunging us into the freezer! Today or latest 12z we only have one going down to -10c and that's the control!

 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


TPentlow
02 February 2023 20:22:44

Looks like zonal winds will take a dive again - So maybe Another SSW possibility this time splitting the PV and reversing zonal winds after mid month - maybe could give us a colder end to February and by then the MJO should be out of 3-4 phase? I don't know much about this...
UserPostedImage
UserPostedImagehttp://www.weatheriscool.com/prod/gfs/eps/strat/u10serie_gefsonly.png

UserPostedImage 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 



I agree. I’ve often thought that this winter has been similar in some respects to 2017/18 and I think we’ll get a good easterly shot at the end of this month or beginning of March.
________________________________________________
Tom (North Northants - 130m asl)
Karl Guille
02 February 2023 20:49:22
Shows how altering just one small component from the model run can make all the difference.  TBF the GFS was largely alone in its predicitions so there has been no major backdown by the models, just a correction by one!   
St. Sampson
Guernsey
DPower
02 February 2023 22:02:58
A blended solution it is then. No model has covered itself in glory the last few days. The gfs is what most on this forum would love to see so is the bigger disappointment but with any modelled cold spell (especially a Scandi high ) for the UK their always needs to be cross model agreement from all three. 
This willy waving crap from some quarters ( all hail the Euro's the gfs is crud) admittedly far worse on the other forum is completely tiresome and juvenile. Go back three days or so and see what the ecm was showing for later next week lol.
Anyway moving on, who's up for another BFTE 18 style freeze again. Early days but if the latest 12z gfs strat run is anything to go by then  come late Feb we could be heading into the freezer. 
Karl Guille
02 February 2023 22:31:30
GFS 18z doesn't put us in the freezer but things on the ground could get fairly chilly, especially so for the south east.
 https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2023020218/gfs-1-216.png?18 
 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
tallyho_83
02 February 2023 22:32:09
I have also just noted the ECMWF 42 day mean zonal wind forecast at 10hpa shows quite a crash and it does appear (again!) that we could see a SSW and hopefully this should be enough to split the already weakened PV and send the winds into reverse - let's hope the MJO is in a more favourable phase to give US COLDER blocked weather.

UserPostedImage


 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Karl Guille
02 February 2023 22:40:30
Seen worse at T240 as GFS 18z temps us with a Scandi High!
https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2023020218/gfs-0-240.png?18 
 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
ballamar
02 February 2023 22:41:40
Another tease for 11 days time on GFS
squish
02 February 2023 22:50:58
The 18z GEFS 'mean' synoptic pattern is marginally better than the 12z and both remain considerably out of kilter with the rest of the models.  Quite unusual to have such constant divergence, not just in most of the op runs but also in the ensemble suite from al the rest.

ICON seems to have moved incrementally closer to GFS in the last few runs...aslo APERGE 18z

...and the 00z NASA run was quite good 
 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
squish
02 February 2023 22:51:50
Snow Hoper
02 February 2023 23:01:48
Looks like the GFS has decided the first part of it's cold spell was a bust, but the 2nd half is still a go🤣 couldn't make it up.
Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
Karl Guille
02 February 2023 23:15:21
An encouraging set of short 18z ensembles IMBY given the disappointment of the 12z suite!  In this scenario an easterly would bring very low daytime maxima!
 https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/runs/2023020218/graphe3_00000_220_248___.gif 
 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
The Beast from the East
02 February 2023 23:26:34

Looks like the GFS has decided the first part of it's cold spell was a bust, but the 2nd half is still a go🤣 couldn't make it up.

Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper 



once again we allow ourselves to get sucked in by GFS showing some leg and bust, only to get cruelly shown the  door in the morning 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Dub Version
02 February 2023 23:52:29
GFS , "sacked in the morning"

Or just maybe....just maybe...
Berkshire
+1
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