Not an unexpected GFS set today but shame it didn't pull off an unexpected coup😄
The 0z ECM ens IMBY showed a fairly clear signal for chilly (at the surface at least) HP for a few days from Monday, with increasing scatter thereafter and more chance of unsettled weather. Just looking at the T240 ECM op from this morning and the hemisphere view is quite interesting IMO - the PV has finished wandering eastwards from Canada although a weaker PV lobe (word of the day) remains, with another love over Russia/Siberia. There's a weakish but fairly large area of HP over the pole between the two lobes and it's gradually extending itself towards Scandinavia.
As it stands the Canadian remnants are spitting too much energy in to the Atlantic and there's a whopping Azores HP too but it's not an unpromising chart exactly.
All in all though re mid term pattern, I'd say a 'win' for the ens sets (sort of including the GEFS as they were never solidly cold although more keen than ECM). The most likely solution always looked like a few days of chilly HP before a gradual decline to more unsettled and unless something flips that looks like what we're going to get.
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