ECM6Z has a weaker lobe...
 

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The GEFS ensemble was upgraded last October. 

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ICON first nail in the cold spell coffin!! More to come

Yup, complete collapse to the milder scenario, with only the op run and a couple of other stragglers preserving a brief cold plunge, and I would expect those to have vanished by the 12Z. So predictable.

Never bought into those fantasy charts that GFS was showing.

Writing really is well and truly on the wall now for this winter, another completely snowless one IMBY, although I accept other areas have had a bit.

Another poor winter looks done and dusted though, now looking forward to spring and summer, and hopefully something cheery.

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The GEFS ensemble was upgraded last October. 

Thanks for the info.

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Never bought into those fantasy charts that GFS was showing.

Writing really is well and truly on the wall now for this winter, another completely snowless one IMBY, although I accept other areas have had a bit.

Another poor winter looks done and dusted though


, now looking forward to spring and summer, and
hopefully something cheery.

The Moomintroll does NOT see his shadow

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From UKM to extended:
’There is a small and possibly diminishing chance of much colder conditions for a time across the south.’

Maybe another thing that’s diminishing is the reputation of the GFS model. We’re not out of the game, but we’re definitely looking for our hat.

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Final capitulation from the GFS 12z.  Rather sad really. 

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GEM offers some hope longer term
GFS is still pretty cold and frosty for the south as will UKMO

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Final capitulation from the GFS 12z.  Rather sad really. 

There are still a few of the suite that try to keep the flame burning, but only a few.
GFS is like ‘if you run with the devil, expect to get burnt.’
 

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There are still a few of the suite that try to keep the flame burning, but only a few.
GFS is like ‘if you run with the devil, expect to get burnt.’
 

Always better to walk behind from a safe distance and wait for the wheels to fall off….

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Not an unexpected GFS set today but shame it didn't pull off an unexpected coup😄

The 0z ECM ens IMBY showed a fairly clear signal for chilly (at the surface at least) HP for a few days from Monday, with increasing scatter thereafter and more chance of unsettled weather. Just looking at the T240 ECM op from this morning and the hemisphere view is quite interesting IMO - the PV has finished wandering eastwards from Canada although a weaker PV lobe (word of the day) remains, with another love over Russia/Siberia. There's a weakish but fairly large area of HP over the pole between the two lobes and it's gradually extending itself towards Scandinavia. 

As it stands the Canadian remnants are spitting too much energy in to the Atlantic and there's a whopping Azores HP too but it's not an unpromising chart exactly.

All in all though re mid term pattern, I'd say a 'win' for the ens sets (sort of including the GEFS as they were never solidly cold although more keen than ECM). The most likely solution always looked like a few days of chilly HP before a gradual decline to more unsettled and unless something flips that looks like what we're going to get.

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Looks like zonal winds will take a dive again - So maybe Another SSW possibility this time splitting the PV and reversing zonal winds after mid month - maybe could give us a colder end to February and by then the MJO should be out of 3-4 phase? I don't know much about this...

http://www.weatheriscool.com/prod/gfs/eps/strat/u10serie_gefsonly.png

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Well worth comparing the last 4 GEFS updates.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=london 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=06&lg=850&lglocation=london&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM) 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=00&lg=850&lglocation=london&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM) 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=18&lg=850&lglocation=london&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM) 

Should be a good lesson. 😁

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Not sure if anyone took GFS Stella runs that seriously but they were fun to look at

Shows that 7 days away is still too far away for cold spell prediction even with the latest super computers. Not really any better than the Home Service forecast 60 years go to be honest, in that respect.

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Not sure if anyone took GFS Stella runs that seriously but they were fun to look at

Yes less than a day ago we were seeing many GFS ENS going below -10c @ 850hpa with a few going down to -14c or -16c uppers plunging us into the freezer! Today or latest 12z we only have one going down to -10c and that's the control!

 

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Looks like zonal winds will take a dive again - So maybe Another SSW possibility this time splitting the PV and reversing zonal winds after mid month - maybe could give us a colder end to February and by then the MJO should be out of 3-4 phase? I don't know much about this...

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IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

http://www.weatheriscool.com/prod/gfs/eps/strat/u10serie_gefsonly.png

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

 

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I agree. I’ve often thought that this winter has been similar in some respects to 2017/18 and I think we’ll get a good easterly shot at the end of this month or beginning of March.

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Shows how altering just one small component from the model run can make all the difference.  TBF the GFS was largely alone in its predicitions so there has been no major backdown by the models, just a correction by one!   

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A blended solution it is then. No model has covered itself in glory the last few days. The gfs is what most on this forum would love to see so is the bigger disappointment but with any modelled cold spell (especially a Scandi high ) for the UK their always needs to be cross model agreement from all three. 
This willy waving crap from some quarters ( all hail the Euro's the gfs is crud) admittedly far worse on the other forum is completely tiresome and juvenile. Go back three days or so and see what the ecm was showing for later next week lol.
Anyway moving on, who's up for another BFTE 18 style freeze again. Early days but if the latest 12z gfs strat run is anything to go by then  come late Feb we could be heading into the freezer.