Hadley

Hadley

17.0c to the 14th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

The South has been so much warmer than the North. Feels like a 18c month so far here.

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The South has been so much warmer than the North. Feels like a 18c month so far here.

Actually going down by 0.1C yesterday is quite remarkable in the middle of a heatwave, albeit the cooler interlude in a heatwave. 

Interesting to look at mean max vs min stats this month. With the sunshine and dryness I expect the max anomalies are much higher and the mins dragging things down. For example it was 7.6C at my vineyard last night. 

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Actually going down by 0.1C yesterday is quite remarkable in the middle of a heatwave, albeit the cooler interlude in a heatwave. 

Interesting to look at mean max vs min stats this month. With the sunshine and dryness I expect the max anomalies are much higher and the mins dragging things down. For example it was 7.6C at my vineyard last night. 

Current provisional stats: max +2.2 anomaly, minimum +0.1. So you're bang on.

Metcheck            17.26c        Anomaly       0.90c

Netweather         18.01c        Anomaly       1.52c

Peasedwn St John  16.69c     Anomaly   -0.61c.

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CET about to blast off into space now. I wonder what it will be come Wednesday? I'd guess high-18s, maybe even low-19s?

I'm pretty certain that Monday's CET will be a new daily record. It expect it could even be a record by some margin? I'm going to guess that it could be around 27.5-28.5°C

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The South has been so much warmer than the North. Feels like a 18c month so far here.

mean temp so far here is 17.8C so I’m surprised the CET area is that low

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HADLEY      17.0c       Anomaly        10c.   Provisional to  15th.

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mean temp so far here is 17.8C so I’m surprised the CET area is that low

Iam suprised too imby the mean is now 20.2c. Given the mean is 17.8c in Leeds something doesn`t add up with CET currently being only 17c??

 

Iam suprised too imby the mean is now 20.2c. Given the mean is 17.8c in Leeds something doesn`t add up with CET currently being only 17c??

There have been a lot of clear days under not super high uppers so the minimums at Pershore have been very low, was 6.9 two nights ago for instance when most other places weren't below 9. Rothamsted has also recorded a number of low minimums and temps in the NW have not been that high either, it's just so been that the stations used are this month not completely representative of the UK.

 

There have been a lot of clear days under not super high uppers so the minimums at Pershore have been very low, was 6.9 two nights ago for instance when most other places weren't below 9. Rothamsted has also recorded a number of low minimums and temps in the NW have not been that high either, it's just so been that the stations used are this month not completely representative of the UK.

Pershore is a renowned frost hollow so it seems a strange choice for a CET station.

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Rough guide= 15 days at 17 mean = 235 degrees.

A monthly mean of 18 requires 31x18 = 558 degrees.

Current deficit to 15th = 323 degrees.

This spread over remaining 16 days requires 20.2C per day everage.

Yesterday will have been below that but although today through Tuesday should easily exceed that and give us some to spare, beyond is still uncertain and no prolonged hot spell is in the models although hints of some more hot days here & there.

I reckon at this stage we will be looking at mid 17s at best, but of course I won't pretend to see beyond Wednesday.

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Metcheck              17.38c             Anomaly          0.92c

Netweather           18.07c             Anomaly          1.58c

Peasedown St John 17.92c           Anomaly          0.62c. 

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Rough guide= 15 days at 17 mean = 235 degrees.

A monthly mean of 18 requires 31x18 = 558 degrees.

Current deficit to 15th = 323 degrees.

This spread over remaining 16 days requires 20.2C per day everage.

Yesterday will have been below that but although today through Tuesday should easily exceed that and give us some to spare, beyond is still uncertain and no prolonged hot spell is in the models although hints of some more hot days here & there.

I reckon at this stage we will be looking at mid 17s at best, but of course I won't pretend to see beyond Wednesday.

My gut feel is it'll end over 18c, but can't say you're wrong

scenario:

16 days at 17.1c

4 days at 24c

11 days at 18c

Would give 18.3c

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Rough guide= 15 days at 17 mean = 235 degrees.

A monthly mean of 18 requires 31x18 = 558 degrees.

Current deficit to 15th = 323 degrees.

This spread over remaining 16 days requires 20.2C per day everage.

Yesterday will have been below that but although today through Tuesday should easily exceed that and give us some to spare, beyond is still uncertain and no prolonged hot spell is in the models although hints of some more hot days here & there.

I reckon at this stage we will be looking at mid 17s at best, but of course I won't pretend to see beyond Wednesday.

Isn't 15*17 255?

Hadley

Rough guide= 15 days at 17 mean = 235 degrees.

A monthly mean of 18 requires 31x18 = 558 degrees.

Current deficit to 15th = 323 degrees.

This spread over remaining 16 days requires 20.2C per day everage.

Yesterday will have been below that but although today through Tuesday should easily exceed that and give us some to spare, beyond is still uncertain and no prolonged hot spell is in the models although hints of some more hot days here & there.

I reckon at this stage we will be looking at mid 17s at best, but of course I won't pretend to see beyond Wednesday.

 

Calculation is wrong

Half a month at 17, to get average 18, other half a month would be 19

The extra day is not going to make much difference to this quick check

 

 

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By Wednesday the average we will need for the rest of the month to get to 18C will be considerably more modest... I think we're gonna do it and thus I've gone too low ..

 

 

Calculation is wrong

Half a month at 17, to get average 18, other half a month would be 19

The extra day is not going to make much difference to this quick check

 

 

Yes apologies- the first step was wrong. 15 x 17 = 255 not 235

Deficit was ergo 303 not 323 degrees

303 ÷ 16 = 18.9.

Good method, bad maths!

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Metcheck               17.75c           Anomaly         1.27c

Netweather            18.3c.           Anomaly          1.87c

Peasedown St John  18.37c         Anomaly           1.07c.

 

Should have gone for 18.3c this month.

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