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Gavin D
17 July 2022 20:38:00

Hadley



17.0c to the 16th


1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.6c above the 81 to 10 average


Surrey John
17 July 2022 21:29:54


Rough guide= 15 days at 17 mean = 235 degrees.


A monthly mean of 18 requires 31x18 = 558 degrees.


Current deficit to 15th = 323 degrees.


This spread over remaining 16 days requires 20.2C per day everage.


Yesterday will have been below that but although today through Tuesday should easily exceed that and give us some to spare, beyond is still uncertain and no prolonged hot spell is in the models although hints of some more hot days here & there.


I reckon at this stage we will be looking at mid 17s at best, but of course I won't pretend to see beyond Wednesday.


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


 


Calculation is wrong


Half a month at 17, to get average 18, other half a month would be 19


The extra day is not going to make much difference to this quick check


 


 


Bradford on Avon, Wiltshire
35m ASL
Spring Sun Winter Dread
18 July 2022 07:57:56
By Wednesday the average we will need for the rest of the month to get to 18C will be considerably more modest... I think we're gonna do it and thus I've gone too low ..
Bertwhistle
18 July 2022 09:54:06


 


 


Calculation is wrong


Half a month at 17, to get average 18, other half a month would be 19


The extra day is not going to make much difference to this quick check


 


 


Originally Posted by: Surrey John 


Yes apologies- the first step was wrong. 15 x 17 = 255 not 235


Deficit was ergo 303 not 323 degrees


303 ÷ 16 = 18.9.


Good method, bad maths!


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
ARTzeman
18 July 2022 10:22:41

Metcheck               17.75c           Anomaly         1.27c


Netweather            18.3c.           Anomaly          1.87c


Peasedown St John  18.37c         Anomaly           1.07c.


 


Should have gone for 18.3c this month.






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Others just get wet.
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ARTzeman
18 July 2022 13:49:08

MET OFFICE HADLEY CENTER       17.3C     ANOMALY   1.3C. PROVISIONAL TO 17TH






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Frank H
  • Frank H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
19 July 2022 08:14:58


MET OFFICE HADLEY CENTER       17.3C     ANOMALY   1.3C. PROVISIONAL TO 17TH


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


Probably rise approx 0.5c after yesterday


Wrightington, Wigan
ARTzeman
19 July 2022 10:11:11

Metcheck                18.23c         Anomaly        1.27c


Netweather             18.81c         Anomaly         2.31c 


Peasedown St John  18.65c         Anomaly         1.30c. 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
lanky
19 July 2022 11:55:06


Monday is surely going to be a strong contender for the hottest CET day ever, and by some margin?

The record to beat is 25.2C (set on 29 Jul 1948 & 25 Jul 2019).

Looking at the UKV, even a conservative estimate would have a max for the CET area of 36C and a minimum of 21C, giving a mean of 28.5C.


Taking the more extreme end of a 38C max and a 22C minimum we would end up with a 30C CET day, which is just ridiculous to contemplate. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


If the Met Office just take the average of the 3 maxima and the 3 minima from 09:00 to 09:00 of the 3 stations then I think the mean CET from the last 24 hours will be aroind 27.0C which is easily a new record - probably lasting 1 day


 


Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Bertwhistle
19 July 2022 12:21:18


 


Probably rise approx 0.5c after yesterday


Originally Posted by: Frank H 


That's what I reckon, going on the 3 stations' thermographs.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
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lanky
19 July 2022 12:43:50


 


If the Met Office just take the average of the 3 maxima and the 3 minima from 09:00 to 09:00 of the 3 stations then I think the mean CET from the last 24 hours will be aroind 27.0C which is easily a new record - probably lasting 1 day


 


Originally Posted by: lanky 


Evidently yhey don't do it that way then I have just seen they have it at 24.4 and not breaking the record


The new month to date is now 17.7


Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Bertwhistle
19 July 2022 12:54:27


 


Evidently yhey don't do it that way then I have just seen they have it at 24.4 and not breaking the record


The new month to date is now 17.7


Originally Posted by: lanky 


Is that because of the minima used for a day being the ones before the day and maybe you'd used last night's for yesterday's? The previous night was cooler, especially at Pershore; the record will go today- those minima will be used.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
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lanky
19 July 2022 13:13:47


 


Is that because of the minima used for a day being the ones before the day and maybe you'd used last night's for yesterday's? The previous night was cooler, especially at Pershore; the record will go today- those minima will be used.


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


Thanks Bert


I think you nailed it - doing it that way gives their answer


That means we will smash it on tomorrows figure


Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Chidog
19 July 2022 13:52:29

Today's figure is going to be pretty hard to beat even with global warming, going to be something like 20C min and 37C max = 28.5C...

redmoons
19 July 2022 14:26:52
Northholt
2022-07-19 15:00 39.1 °C Fog 😉
Andrew,
Watford
ASL 35m
http://weather.andrewlalchan.co.uk 





Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2022 15:24:40


 


Thanks Bert


I think you nailed it - doing it that way gives their answer


That means we will smash it on tomorrows figure


Originally Posted by: lanky 

Yes, at the end of the month, there’s always one more minima to count. So it’ll be 9am today, to 9am tomorrow.  Now I’m confused. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Snowshoe
19 July 2022 16:46:02
Yesterday was a daily record for maximum temperatures, at 34.8°C, beating the 34.2°C set in 2019.

It's quite remarkable that this record will probably be smashed today.
Gavin D
19 July 2022 16:57:28

Hadley



17.7c to the 18th


1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.3c above the 81 to 10 average


Rob K
19 July 2022 19:13:21


Hadley



17.7c to the 18th


1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.3c above the 81 to 10 average



Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Will be well over 18 after today then?


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Bertwhistle
19 July 2022 19:39:11


Yes, at the end of the month, there’s always one more minima to count. So it’ll be 9am today, to 9am tomorrow.  Now I’m confused. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 


That will be the minimum for tomorrow Caz!


Not sure if that helped at all!


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
20 July 2022 08:01:58
By my quickfire calculations I make it 18.4C at the end of the month, per this morning's 00z GFS. But note that does have early 30s on the last couple of days which hike the average up a lot.

Some quite cool, single figure nights to come. The difference between daytime and night temperatures this month is quite stark - with the honourable exception of the last 3 nights.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Hungry Tiger
20 July 2022 09:49:27

By my quickfire calculations I make it 18.4C at the end of the month, per this morning's 00z GFS. But note that does have early 30s on the last couple of days which hike the average up a lot.

Some quite cool, single figure nights to come. The difference between daytime and night temperatures this month is quite stark - with the honourable exception of the last 3 nights.


Originally Posted by: TimS 


The exceptionally low soil moisture levels are to explain for some of the cool nights. With much more heat expected further on in the summer those cool nights are welcome.


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


ARTzeman
20 July 2022 12:06:04

Metcheck                 18.74c           Anomaly         2.28c


Netweather              19.34c           Anomaly         2.85c


Peasedown St John   18.7c             Anomaly         1.47c.  






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
20 July 2022 13:30:56


 


That will be the minimum for tomorrow Caz!


Not sure if that helped at all!


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

 Erm.  It still frazzles my brain!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Chidog
20 July 2022 13:30:58

Minimum yesterday: 18.9


Maximum: 37.3 (!!!)


No mean released, but my maths says 28.1. Hottest day ever by 2.8C!

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