The Weather Outlook

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Gavin D
13 July 2022 13:46:11

Hadley


 


17.0c to the 12th


1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

ARTzeman
14 July 2022 10:38:53

Metcheck             17.37c         Anomaly     0.91c


Netweather          18.14c         Anomaly      0.91c


Peasedown St John 17.85c      Anomaly       0.55c.  





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Rob K
14 July 2022 19:13:06

Monday is surely going to be a strong contender for the hottest CET day ever, and by some margin?

The record to beat is 25.2C (set on 29 Jul 1948 & 25 Jul 2019).

Looking at the UKV, even a conservative estimate would have a max for the CET area of 36C and a minimum of 21C, giving a mean of 28.5C.


Taking the more extreme end of a 38C max and a 22C minimum we would end up with a 30C CET day, which is just ridiculous to contemplate. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gavin D
14 July 2022 20:07:45

Hadley


 



17.1c to the 13th


1.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.8c above the 81 to 10 average


Spring Sun Winter Dread
14 July 2022 20:40:54
It would be going some for the average of the CET station maxes to be 38C though
Surprising to see 1948 holding that joint record still .. it's not a heatwave that gets mentioned very often now but has survived several smashings of the record UK temperature...
lanky
14 July 2022 21:02:20


Monday is surely going to be a strong contender for the hottest CET day ever, and by some margin?

The record to beat is 25.2C (set on 29 Jul 1948 & 25 Jul 2019).

Looking at the UKV, even a conservative estimate would have a max for the CET area of 36C and a minimum of 21C, giving a mean of 28.5C.


Taking the more extreme end of a 38C max and a 22C minimum we would end up with a 30C CET day, which is just ridiculous to contemplate. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I think some of these historical data were slighly altered when CET 2.0.0 was started a few weeks ago


Just to be a bit pedantic, the leader on its own now is 25 July 2019 at 25.3C


(12/08/2020 is 2nd at 25.2C and 29/07/1948 3rd at 25.1C)


As one of the 3 CET locations is in Lancashire I am not sure a combined average max of 36C is goint to be that easy - but should be interestung to see


 

Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Rob K
14 July 2022 21:37:20


 


As one of the 3 CET locations is in Lancashire I am not sure a combined average max of 36C is goint to be that easy - but should be interestung to see


 


Originally Posted by: lanky 


I was going by the UKV grid points for the CET locations. If it goes as modelled then the widespread nature of the heat would be amazing. Even a max of 35 and min of 18 would smash the record by over 1 degree. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
LeedsLad123
14 July 2022 21:40:25


 


I think some of these historical data were slighly altered when CET 2.0.0 was started a few weeks ago


Just to be a bit pedantic, the leader on its own now is 25 July 2019 at 25.3C


(12/08/2020 is 2nd at 25.2C and 29/07/1948 3rd at 25.1C)


As one of the 3 CET locations is in Lancashire I am not sure a combined average max of 36C is goint to be that easy - but should be interestung to see


 


Originally Posted by: lanky 


Manchester is forecast to be 34C on Tuesday as per the BBC, while the GFS shows 40C around there. I know the Lancashire site is north of Manchester but it gives you an idea of how widespread the exceptional heat is forecast to be. 

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
ARTzeman
15 July 2022 10:58:29

Metcheck       17.28c         Anomaly       0.82c


Netweather    18.05c         Anomaly       1.56c


Peasedown St John  17.88c  Anomaly     0.58c. 





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
15 July 2022 12:15:52


Monday is surely going to be a strong contender for the hottest CET day ever, and by some margin?

The record to beat is 25.2C (set on 29 Jul 1948 & 25 Jul 2019).

Looking at the UKV, even a conservative estimate would have a max for the CET area of 36C and a minimum of 21C, giving a mean of 28.5C.


Taking the more extreme end of a 38C max and a 22C minimum we would end up with a 30C CET day, which is just ridiculous to contemplate. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 

  Not looking forward to it, as I don’t sleep well in heat.  But it excites me from a record point of view!  
What is the record CET for July?  I’m sure we’re well on our way to that!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Gavin D
15 July 2022 17:59:17

Hadley



17.0c to the 14th


1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average


Ally Pally Snowman
15 July 2022 18:01:39


Hadley



17.0c to the 14th


1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average



Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


The South has been so much warmer than the North. Feels like a 18c month so far here.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
15 July 2022 20:41:40


 


The South has been so much warmer than the North. Feels like a 18c month so far here.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Actually going down by 0.1C yesterday is quite remarkable in the middle of a heatwave, albeit the cooler interlude in a heatwave. 


Interesting to look at mean max vs min stats this month. With the sunshine and dryness I expect the max anomalies are much higher and the mins dragging things down. For example it was 7.6C at my vineyard last night. 

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Chidog
15 July 2022 21:42:09


 


Actually going down by 0.1C yesterday is quite remarkable in the middle of a heatwave, albeit the cooler interlude in a heatwave. 


Interesting to look at mean max vs min stats this month. With the sunshine and dryness I expect the max anomalies are much higher and the mins dragging things down. For example it was 7.6C at my vineyard last night. 


Originally Posted by: TimS 


Current provisional stats: max +2.2 anomaly, minimum +0.1. So you're bang on.

ARTzeman
16 July 2022 12:36:41

Metcheck            17.26c        Anomaly       0.90c


Netweather         18.01c        Anomaly       1.52c


Peasedwn St John  16.69c     Anomaly   -0.61c.





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Bolty
16 July 2022 13:03:15
CET about to blast off into space now. I wonder what it will be come Wednesday? I'd guess high-18s, maybe even low-19s?

I'm pretty certain that Monday's CET will be a new daily record. It expect it could even be a record by some margin? I'm going to guess that it could be around 27.5-28.5°C
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
LeedsLad123
16 July 2022 13:06:54


 


The South has been so much warmer than the North. Feels like a 18c month so far here.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


mean temp so far here is 17.8C so I’m surprised the CET area is that low

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
ARTzeman
16 July 2022 13:11:02

HADLEY      17.0c       Anomaly        10c.   Provisional to  15th.





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
springsunshine
16 July 2022 15:58:44


 


mean temp so far here is 17.8C so I’m surprised the CET area is that low


Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


Iam suprised too imby the mean is now 20.2c. Given the mean is 17.8c in Leeds something doesn`t add up with CET currently being only 17c??

Chidog
16 July 2022 20:43:10


 


Iam suprised too imby the mean is now 20.2c. Given the mean is 17.8c in Leeds something doesn`t add up with CET currently being only 17c??


Originally Posted by: springsunshine 


There have been a lot of clear days under not super high uppers so the minimums at Pershore have been very low, was 6.9 two nights ago for instance when most other places weren't below 9. Rothamsted has also recorded a number of low minimums and temps in the NW have not been that high either, it's just so been that the stations used are this month not completely representative of the UK.

LeedsLad123
16 July 2022 23:54:03


 


There have been a lot of clear days under not super high uppers so the minimums at Pershore have been very low, was 6.9 two nights ago for instance when most other places weren't below 9. Rothamsted has also recorded a number of low minimums and temps in the NW have not been that high either, it's just so been that the stations used are this month not completely representative of the UK.


Originally Posted by: Chidog 


Pershore is a renowned frost hollow so it seems a strange choice for a CET station.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Bertwhistle
17 July 2022 08:04:18

Rough guide= 15 days at 17 mean = 235 degrees.


A monthly mean of 18 requires 31x18 = 558 degrees.


Current deficit to 15th = 323 degrees.


This spread over remaining 16 days requires 20.2C per day everage.


Yesterday will have been below that but although today through Tuesday should easily exceed that and give us some to spare, beyond is still uncertain and no prolonged hot spell is in the models although hints of some more hot days here & there.


I reckon at this stage we will be looking at mid 17s at best, but of course I won't pretend to see beyond Wednesday.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
ARTzeman
17 July 2022 09:41:23

Metcheck              17.38c             Anomaly          0.92c


Netweather           18.07c             Anomaly          1.58c


Peasedown St John 17.92c           Anomaly          0.62c. 





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Frank H
  • Frank H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
17 July 2022 11:06:56


Rough guide= 15 days at 17 mean = 235 degrees.


A monthly mean of 18 requires 31x18 = 558 degrees.


Current deficit to 15th = 323 degrees.


This spread over remaining 16 days requires 20.2C per day everage.


Yesterday will have been below that but although today through Tuesday should easily exceed that and give us some to spare, beyond is still uncertain and no prolonged hot spell is in the models although hints of some more hot days here & there.


I reckon at this stage we will be looking at mid 17s at best, but of course I won't pretend to see beyond Wednesday.


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


My gut feel is it'll end over 18c, but can't say you're wrong


scenario:


16 days at 17.1c


4 days at 24c


11 days at 18c


Would give 18.3c

Wrightington, Wigan
Chidog
17 July 2022 17:16:51


Rough guide= 15 days at 17 mean = 235 degrees.


A monthly mean of 18 requires 31x18 = 558 degrees.


Current deficit to 15th = 323 degrees.


This spread over remaining 16 days requires 20.2C per day everage.


Yesterday will have been below that but although today through Tuesday should easily exceed that and give us some to spare, beyond is still uncertain and no prolonged hot spell is in the models although hints of some more hot days here & there.


I reckon at this stage we will be looking at mid 17s at best, but of course I won't pretend to see beyond Wednesday.


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


Isn't 15*17 255?

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