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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
06 July 2022 19:24:33
Remarkably chilly first week of the month for what has been, for the most part, a very pleasant start to July. Cool nights.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
07 July 2022 09:35:34

Remarkably chilly first week of the month for what has been, for the most part, a very pleasant start to July. Cool nights.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


Continuing the theme of June. Perhaps many of us have gone too high? 


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
ARTzeman
07 July 2022 10:16:32

Metcheck                15.25c           Anomaly         -1.21c


Netweather             15.77c           Anomaly         -0.74c


Peasedown St John   15.37c          Anomaly         -3.93c. 


 


5 Sunny days to come next week....     






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin D
07 July 2022 13:02:12

Hadley


 



14.9c to the 6th


1.1c below the 61 to 90 average
1.2c below the 81 to 10 average


Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
07 July 2022 14:25:14


Hadley


 



14.9c to the 6th


1.1c below the 61 to 90 average
1.2c below the 81 to 10 average



Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


The only way is up now and for those who went in the 18s in the comp there's still a long way to go.....


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Bertwhistle
07 July 2022 17:11:44

First 6 days of 1995 had a mean of 15.5 I think (did quick mental calculation) which although it's .6 up, is not far off.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
ARTzeman
08 July 2022 10:38:49

Metcheck                15.45c           Anomaly         -1.01c


Netwather                16.06c           Anomaly         -0.45c


Peasedown St John     15.52c          Anomaly          -1.78c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin D
08 July 2022 19:06:59

Hadley


 



15.3c to the 7th


0.7c below the 61 to 90 average
0.8c below the 81 to 10 average


rickm
09 July 2022 04:04:11

Sorry not to have entered everyone especially given my current lofty position! I'm away in the States and not back till the middle of next week but hopefully Frank can work out GW's formula for a one off missed month - I certainly can't!


Will be back in August.

Frank H
  • Frank H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
09 July 2022 07:30:46


Sorry not to have entered everyone especially given my current lofty position! I'm away in the States and not back till the middle of next week but hopefully Frank can work out GW's formula for a one off missed month - I certainly can't!


Will be back in August.


Originally Posted by: rickm 


I found this in GW's January CET thread. 


 


Missed predictions


 


If a person participating in the annual CET competition does not make a prediction in any one month (including January) their prediction error for that month will be calculated as follows:


 


- the upper quartile (75th percentile) of the prediction errors of all the people in the annual competition who did make a prediction for that month will be calculated at the end of the month plus a penalty of 0.4C (to tie in with the penalties for late predictions); 


 


The result of the above calculation will be used as the CET prediction error for any person who misses a prediction in a particular month subject to one further point:


 


- If, for any person, their average monthly prediction error for all the previous months in the year to date is higher than the 75th percentile of errors (across all entrants), then the person's average prediction error will be substituted instead of the 75th percentile figure. This override is only likely to apply to those people towards the foot of the table who have very made very large errors in previous months and hence is no likely to be of significance to the overall result. 


 


One final important point. If you want to be included in the year long competition you may not miss more than two predictions during a calendar year. If a third prediction is missed that person will be eliminated from the annual competition (otherwise it would mean 25% or more of the annual error being calculated on non-existent predictions which would reduce the credibility of the competition too much). However, that person can continue to make predictions for the purpose of the monthly competition


Wrightington, Wigan
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
09 July 2022 07:39:10


 


I found this in GW's January CET thread. 


 


Missed predictions


 


If a person participating in the annual CET competition does not make a prediction in any one month (including January) their prediction error for that month will be calculated as follows:


 


- the upper quartile (75th percentile) of the prediction errors of all the people in the annual competition who did make a prediction for that month will be calculated at the end of the month plus a penalty of 0.4C (to tie in with the penalties for late predictions); 


 


The result of the above calculation will be used as the CET prediction error for any person who misses a prediction in a particular month subject to one further point:


 


- If, for any person, their average monthly prediction error for all the previous months in the year to date is higher than the 75th percentile of errors (across all entrants), then the person's average prediction error will be substituted instead of the 75th percentile figure. This override is only likely to apply to those people towards the foot of the table who have very made very large errors in previous months and hence is no likely to be of significance to the overall result. 


 


One final important point. If you want to be included in the year long competition you may not miss more than two predictions during a calendar year. If a third prediction is missed that person will be eliminated from the annual competition (otherwise it would mean 25% or more of the annual error being calculated on non-existent predictions which would reduce the credibility of the competition too much). However, that person can continue to make predictions for the purpose of the monthly competition


Originally Posted by: Frank H 

 Frank, you’re a star!  In fact, a super star if you can work that out!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
ARTzeman
09 July 2022 10:46:31

Metcheck             15.87c          Anomaly        -0.59c


Netweather          16.48c          Anomaly       -0.3c


Peasedown St John 15.62c         Anomaly       -1.88c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
09 July 2022 13:22:49

Met Office Hadley   15.0c     Anomaly    -0.4c provisional to 8th.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Bertwhistle
09 July 2022 14:25:51


Met Office Hadley   15.0c     Anomaly    -0.4c provisional to 8th.


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


Just so no one's unduly alarmed, it's 15.6 to 8th. Just a typo.


Should get to mid 16s early next week and slide easily into 17 + but we'll soon be half-month; so that bigheat will be needed to sustain get to 18+ I suspect. Even so, it feels 95 ish.


Edit: and if certain models bear out, 95 may have > 1 meaning! 


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
ARTzeman
10 July 2022 09:44:55

Metcheck      16.04c      Anomaly      -0.43c


Netweather   16.71c      Anomaly       0.22c


Peasedown St John   15.8c  Anomaly  -1.7c.       






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Bertwhistle
10 July 2022 14:47:09

And now 15.9C to 9th. 


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html


 


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
ARTzeman
11 July 2022 10:33:17

Metcheck                16.42c           Anomaly          -0.05c


Netweather             17.06c           Anomaly          0.56c


Peasedown St John  16.65c          Anomaly          -0.85c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
11 July 2022 14:11:23

Met Office: 16.2C to the 10th (+0.2C). Finally we are above average for the month.


Considering how nice July has been so far it's a testament to the dryness of the airmass and hence the relatively cold nights, as well as the West-centred nature of the CET in a month where East has been best. 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
springsunshine
12 July 2022 08:46:22


Met Office: 16.2C to the 10th (+0.2C). Finally we are above average for the month.


Considering how nice July has been so far it's a testament to the dryness of the airmass and hence the relatively cold nights, as well as the West-centred nature of the CET in a month where East has been best. 


Originally Posted by: TimS 


Given the way the models are looking an 18c+ july is now well possible.

ARTzeman
12 July 2022 10:56:13

Metcheck          17.04c       Anolmaly      0.58c.


Netweather       17.54c       Anomaly       1.1c


Peasedwn St John   17.63c  Anomaly       -0.13c.   






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Hungry Tiger
12 July 2022 13:43:10


Metcheck          17.04c       Anolmaly      0.58c.


Netweather       17.54c       Anomaly       1.1c


Peasedwn St John   17.63c  Anomaly       -0.13c.   


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


Didn't take long to hump that over 17.0C



Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Bertwhistle
12 July 2022 18:52:17

Hadley 16.6C to 11th, as predicted. I reckon today's heat will move it to 16.8 or 16.9 followed by a slight levelling. When we get to the end of the week it will be low 17s and mid month. A meteoric short term rise to between 17.4 and 17.6 by Tuesday then very uncertain.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Rob K
13 July 2022 06:28:11
Models suggesting another plume maybe at the end of next week. Could we get a 19C?
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
13 July 2022 06:42:52

Models suggesting another plume maybe at the end of next week. Could we get a 19C?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Think we'll be well into the 19s by the 24th. The final week could be iffy though.


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ARTzeman
13 July 2022 11:39:21

Metcheck          17.40c   Anomaly  0.94c


Metcheck          18.02c   Anomaly  1.53c


Peasedown St John  17.61c   Anomaly  0.31c.  






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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