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Gavin D
Friday, July 15, 2022 5:59:17 PM

Hadley



17.0c to the 14th


1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average


Ally Pally Snowman
Friday, July 15, 2022 6:01:39 PM


Hadley



17.0c to the 14th


1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average



Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


The South has been so much warmer than the North. Feels like a 18c month so far here.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
Friday, July 15, 2022 8:41:40 PM


 


The South has been so much warmer than the North. Feels like a 18c month so far here.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Actually going down by 0.1C yesterday is quite remarkable in the middle of a heatwave, albeit the cooler interlude in a heatwave. 


Interesting to look at mean max vs min stats this month. With the sunshine and dryness I expect the max anomalies are much higher and the mins dragging things down. For example it was 7.6C at my vineyard last night. 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Chidog
Friday, July 15, 2022 9:42:09 PM


 


Actually going down by 0.1C yesterday is quite remarkable in the middle of a heatwave, albeit the cooler interlude in a heatwave. 


Interesting to look at mean max vs min stats this month. With the sunshine and dryness I expect the max anomalies are much higher and the mins dragging things down. For example it was 7.6C at my vineyard last night. 


Originally Posted by: TimS 


Current provisional stats: max +2.2 anomaly, minimum +0.1. So you're bang on.

ARTzeman
Saturday, July 16, 2022 12:36:41 PM

Metcheck            17.26c        Anomaly       0.90c


Netweather         18.01c        Anomaly       1.52c


Peasedwn St John  16.69c     Anomaly   -0.61c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Bolty
Saturday, July 16, 2022 1:03:15 PM
CET about to blast off into space now. I wonder what it will be come Wednesday? I'd guess high-18s, maybe even low-19s?

I'm pretty certain that Monday's CET will be a new daily record. It expect it could even be a record by some margin? I'm going to guess that it could be around 27.5-28.5°C
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
LeedsLad123
Saturday, July 16, 2022 1:06:54 PM


 


The South has been so much warmer than the North. Feels like a 18c month so far here.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


mean temp so far here is 17.8C so I’m surprised the CET area is that low


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
ARTzeman
Saturday, July 16, 2022 1:11:02 PM

HADLEY      17.0c       Anomaly        10c.   Provisional to  15th.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
springsunshine
Saturday, July 16, 2022 3:58:44 PM


 


mean temp so far here is 17.8C so I’m surprised the CET area is that low


Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


Iam suprised too imby the mean is now 20.2c. Given the mean is 17.8c in Leeds something doesn`t add up with CET currently being only 17c??

Chidog
Saturday, July 16, 2022 8:43:10 PM


 


Iam suprised too imby the mean is now 20.2c. Given the mean is 17.8c in Leeds something doesn`t add up with CET currently being only 17c??


Originally Posted by: springsunshine 


There have been a lot of clear days under not super high uppers so the minimums at Pershore have been very low, was 6.9 two nights ago for instance when most other places weren't below 9. Rothamsted has also recorded a number of low minimums and temps in the NW have not been that high either, it's just so been that the stations used are this month not completely representative of the UK.

LeedsLad123
Saturday, July 16, 2022 11:54:03 PM


 


There have been a lot of clear days under not super high uppers so the minimums at Pershore have been very low, was 6.9 two nights ago for instance when most other places weren't below 9. Rothamsted has also recorded a number of low minimums and temps in the NW have not been that high either, it's just so been that the stations used are this month not completely representative of the UK.


Originally Posted by: Chidog 


Pershore is a renowned frost hollow so it seems a strange choice for a CET station.


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Bertwhistle
Sunday, July 17, 2022 8:04:18 AM

Rough guide= 15 days at 17 mean = 235 degrees.


A monthly mean of 18 requires 31x18 = 558 degrees.


Current deficit to 15th = 323 degrees.


This spread over remaining 16 days requires 20.2C per day everage.


Yesterday will have been below that but although today through Tuesday should easily exceed that and give us some to spare, beyond is still uncertain and no prolonged hot spell is in the models although hints of some more hot days here & there.


I reckon at this stage we will be looking at mid 17s at best, but of course I won't pretend to see beyond Wednesday.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
ARTzeman
Sunday, July 17, 2022 9:41:23 AM

Metcheck              17.38c             Anomaly          0.92c


Netweather           18.07c             Anomaly          1.58c


Peasedown St John 17.92c           Anomaly          0.62c. 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Frank H
  • Frank H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
Sunday, July 17, 2022 11:06:56 AM


Rough guide= 15 days at 17 mean = 235 degrees.


A monthly mean of 18 requires 31x18 = 558 degrees.


Current deficit to 15th = 323 degrees.


This spread over remaining 16 days requires 20.2C per day everage.


Yesterday will have been below that but although today through Tuesday should easily exceed that and give us some to spare, beyond is still uncertain and no prolonged hot spell is in the models although hints of some more hot days here & there.


I reckon at this stage we will be looking at mid 17s at best, but of course I won't pretend to see beyond Wednesday.


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


My gut feel is it'll end over 18c, but can't say you're wrong


scenario:


16 days at 17.1c


4 days at 24c


11 days at 18c


Would give 18.3c


Wrightington, Wigan
Chidog
Sunday, July 17, 2022 5:16:51 PM


Rough guide= 15 days at 17 mean = 235 degrees.


A monthly mean of 18 requires 31x18 = 558 degrees.


Current deficit to 15th = 323 degrees.


This spread over remaining 16 days requires 20.2C per day everage.


Yesterday will have been below that but although today through Tuesday should easily exceed that and give us some to spare, beyond is still uncertain and no prolonged hot spell is in the models although hints of some more hot days here & there.


I reckon at this stage we will be looking at mid 17s at best, but of course I won't pretend to see beyond Wednesday.


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


Isn't 15*17 255?

Gavin D
Sunday, July 17, 2022 8:38:00 PM

Hadley



17.0c to the 16th


1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.6c above the 81 to 10 average


Surrey John
Sunday, July 17, 2022 9:29:54 PM


Rough guide= 15 days at 17 mean = 235 degrees.


A monthly mean of 18 requires 31x18 = 558 degrees.


Current deficit to 15th = 323 degrees.


This spread over remaining 16 days requires 20.2C per day everage.


Yesterday will have been below that but although today through Tuesday should easily exceed that and give us some to spare, beyond is still uncertain and no prolonged hot spell is in the models although hints of some more hot days here & there.


I reckon at this stage we will be looking at mid 17s at best, but of course I won't pretend to see beyond Wednesday.


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


 


Calculation is wrong


Half a month at 17, to get average 18, other half a month would be 19


The extra day is not going to make much difference to this quick check


 


 


Bradford on Avon, Wiltshire
35m ASL
Spring Sun Winter Dread
Monday, July 18, 2022 7:57:56 AM
By Wednesday the average we will need for the rest of the month to get to 18C will be considerably more modest... I think we're gonna do it and thus I've gone too low ..
Bertwhistle
Monday, July 18, 2022 9:54:06 AM


 


 


Calculation is wrong


Half a month at 17, to get average 18, other half a month would be 19


The extra day is not going to make much difference to this quick check


 


 


Originally Posted by: Surrey John 


Yes apologies- the first step was wrong. 15 x 17 = 255 not 235


Deficit was ergo 303 not 323 degrees


303 ÷ 16 = 18.9.


Good method, bad maths!


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
ARTzeman
Monday, July 18, 2022 10:22:41 AM

Metcheck               17.75c           Anomaly         1.27c


Netweather            18.3c.           Anomaly          1.87c


Peasedown St John  18.37c         Anomaly           1.07c.


 


Should have gone for 18.3c this month.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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