Gavin D
15 July 2022 17:59:17

Hadley

17.0c to the 14th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

Ally Pally Snowman
15 July 2022 18:01:39

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Hadley

17.0c to the 14th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

The South has been so much warmer than the North. Feels like a 18c month so far here.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
15 July 2022 20:41:40

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

 

The South has been so much warmer than the North. Feels like a 18c month so far here.

Actually going down by 0.1C yesterday is quite remarkable in the middle of a heatwave, albeit the cooler interlude in a heatwave. 

Interesting to look at mean max vs min stats this month. With the sunshine and dryness I expect the max anomalies are much higher and the mins dragging things down. For example it was 7.6C at my vineyard last night. 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Chidog
15 July 2022 21:42:09

Originally Posted by: TimS 

 

Actually going down by 0.1C yesterday is quite remarkable in the middle of a heatwave, albeit the cooler interlude in a heatwave. 

Interesting to look at mean max vs min stats this month. With the sunshine and dryness I expect the max anomalies are much higher and the mins dragging things down. For example it was 7.6C at my vineyard last night. 

Current provisional stats: max +2.2 anomaly, minimum +0.1. So you're bang on.

ARTzeman
16 July 2022 12:36:41

Metcheck            17.26c        Anomaly       0.90c

Netweather         18.01c        Anomaly       1.52c

Peasedwn St John  16.69c     Anomaly   -0.61c.




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Bolty
16 July 2022 13:03:15
CET about to blast off into space now. I wonder what it will be come Wednesday? I'd guess high-18s, maybe even low-19s?

I'm pretty certain that Monday's CET will be a new daily record. It expect it could even be a record by some margin? I'm going to guess that it could be around 27.5-28.5°C


Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

LeedsLad123
16 July 2022 13:06:54

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

 

The South has been so much warmer than the North. Feels like a 18c month so far here.

mean temp so far here is 17.8C so I’m surprised the CET area is that low


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
ARTzeman
16 July 2022 13:11:02

HADLEY      17.0c       Anomaly        10c.   Provisional to  15th.




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

springsunshine
16 July 2022 15:58:44

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

 

mean temp so far here is 17.8C so I’m surprised the CET area is that low

Iam suprised too imby the mean is now 20.2c. Given the mean is 17.8c in Leeds something doesn`t add up with CET currently being only 17c??

Chidog
16 July 2022 20:43:10

Originally Posted by: springsunshine 

 

Iam suprised too imby the mean is now 20.2c. Given the mean is 17.8c in Leeds something doesn`t add up with CET currently being only 17c??

There have been a lot of clear days under not super high uppers so the minimums at Pershore have been very low, was 6.9 two nights ago for instance when most other places weren't below 9. Rothamsted has also recorded a number of low minimums and temps in the NW have not been that high either, it's just so been that the stations used are this month not completely representative of the UK.

LeedsLad123
16 July 2022 23:54:03

Originally Posted by: Chidog 

 

There have been a lot of clear days under not super high uppers so the minimums at Pershore have been very low, was 6.9 two nights ago for instance when most other places weren't below 9. Rothamsted has also recorded a number of low minimums and temps in the NW have not been that high either, it's just so been that the stations used are this month not completely representative of the UK.


Pershore is a renowned frost hollow so it seems a strange choice for a CET station.


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Bertwhistle
17 July 2022 08:04:18

Rough guide= 15 days at 17 mean = 235 degrees.

A monthly mean of 18 requires 31x18 = 558 degrees.

Current deficit to 15th = 323 degrees.

This spread over remaining 16 days requires 20.2C per day everage.

Yesterday will have been below that but although today through Tuesday should easily exceed that and give us some to spare, beyond is still uncertain and no prolonged hot spell is in the models although hints of some more hot days here & there.

I reckon at this stage we will be looking at mid 17s at best, but of course I won't pretend to see beyond Wednesday.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Definition of disappointment: brown birch bolete

ARTzeman
17 July 2022 09:41:23

Metcheck              17.38c             Anomaly          0.92c

Netweather           18.07c             Anomaly          1.58c

Peasedown St John 17.92c           Anomaly          0.62c. 




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Frank H
  • Frank H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
17 July 2022 11:06:56

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Rough guide= 15 days at 17 mean = 235 degrees.

A monthly mean of 18 requires 31x18 = 558 degrees.

Current deficit to 15th = 323 degrees.

This spread over remaining 16 days requires 20.2C per day everage.

Yesterday will have been below that but although today through Tuesday should easily exceed that and give us some to spare, beyond is still uncertain and no prolonged hot spell is in the models although hints of some more hot days here & there.

I reckon at this stage we will be looking at mid 17s at best, but of course I won't pretend to see beyond Wednesday.

My gut feel is it'll end over 18c, but can't say you're wrong

scenario:

16 days at 17.1c

4 days at 24c

11 days at 18c

Would give 18.3c


Wrightington, Wigan
Chidog
17 July 2022 17:16:51

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Rough guide= 15 days at 17 mean = 235 degrees.

A monthly mean of 18 requires 31x18 = 558 degrees.

Current deficit to 15th = 323 degrees.

This spread over remaining 16 days requires 20.2C per day everage.

Yesterday will have been below that but although today through Tuesday should easily exceed that and give us some to spare, beyond is still uncertain and no prolonged hot spell is in the models although hints of some more hot days here & there.

I reckon at this stage we will be looking at mid 17s at best, but of course I won't pretend to see beyond Wednesday.

Isn't 15*17 255?

Gavin D
17 July 2022 20:38:00

Hadley

17.0c to the 16th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

Surrey John
17 July 2022 21:29:54

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Rough guide= 15 days at 17 mean = 235 degrees.

A monthly mean of 18 requires 31x18 = 558 degrees.

Current deficit to 15th = 323 degrees.

This spread over remaining 16 days requires 20.2C per day everage.

Yesterday will have been below that but although today through Tuesday should easily exceed that and give us some to spare, beyond is still uncertain and no prolonged hot spell is in the models although hints of some more hot days here & there.

I reckon at this stage we will be looking at mid 17s at best, but of course I won't pretend to see beyond Wednesday.

 

Calculation is wrong

Half a month at 17, to get average 18, other half a month would be 19

The extra day is not going to make much difference to this quick check

 

 


Bradford on Avon, Wiltshire

35m ASL

Spring Sun Winter Dread
18 July 2022 07:57:56
By Wednesday the average we will need for the rest of the month to get to 18C will be considerably more modest... I think we're gonna do it and thus I've gone too low ..
Bertwhistle
18 July 2022 09:54:06

Originally Posted by: Surrey John 

 

 

Calculation is wrong

Half a month at 17, to get average 18, other half a month would be 19

The extra day is not going to make much difference to this quick check

 

 

Yes apologies- the first step was wrong. 15 x 17 = 255 not 235

Deficit was ergo 303 not 323 degrees

303 ÷ 16 = 18.9.

Good method, bad maths!


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Definition of disappointment: brown birch bolete

ARTzeman
18 July 2022 10:22:41

Metcheck               17.75c           Anomaly         1.27c

Netweather            18.3c.           Anomaly          1.87c

Peasedown St John  18.37c         Anomaly           1.07c.

 

Should have gone for 18.3c this month.




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

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