Friday morning FWIW
The problem is obvious from the latter charts - the surface temps are just too high, approaching 4C in Manchester, approaching 5C or 6C on the coast. Dewpoints favourable but 850-1000 hPa thicknesses certainly not.
Lots of showers no doubt with that strong westerly and low heights, predominantly of rain in the first instance.
Conditions do get more favourable as the weekend progresses. There’s a feature moving in on Sunday morning but that also comes with a warm sector. Never straightforward this is it?
I probably sounded like a negative nelly yesterday when I commented. This was sort of what I was expecting setup wise. Temps at my level will probably hover around 2C which will probably give wet snow but only slushy deposits.
-5 uppers and a strong flow probably won’t cut it below 200m for significant snow.
With this setup things normally improve after dark so I would expect a few Cm’s here by Saturday morning if the Irish Sea generates enough showers and the direction is favourable.
Lack of clear spells doesn’t with the fast moving flow also stops temps from dropping down too. Although it’s one of my favourite setups it’s also one of the most frustrating as so many things need to come together. It’s been a good few years since we had a classic NWly spell here. I’m talking thunder snow, large hail and 4 inches + accumulation.
What’s the setup for Sunday. I’m hoping it arrives early on. Sounds interesting. I really hope we get something of note whislt im back for the weekend.
Glossop Derbyshire, 200m asl