Temp has started to bomb here in Wirral... Wonder if this cold air is digging in sooner than forecast..

this evening sounds very interesting

Bizarrely, it's colder on the Irish Sea coast than it is slightly inland - if XC Weather is to be believed. As you say, it's the colder air moving in from the NW. You don't see this sort of arrangement very often:

St Bees 3c

Walney Island 5c

Blackpool 5c

Crosby 6c

Rhyl 6c

Caernarfon 6c

Yet...

Liverpool 11c

Hawarden 11c

Manchester 11c

Leeds-Bradford 10c

Leek 10c

Capel Curig 8c

 

 

Bizarrely, it's colder on the Irish Sea coast than it is slightly inland - if XC Weather is to be believed. As you say, it's the colder air moving in from the NW. You don't see this sort of arrangement very often:

 

St Bees 3c

Walney Island 5c

Blackpool 5c

Crosby 6c

Rhyl 6c

Caernarfon 6c

 

Yet...

Liverpool 11c

Hawarden 11c

Manchester 11c

Leeds-Bradford 10c

Leek 10c

Capel Curig 8c

I hope Brian doesn’t mind me copying this link , it is no way a rival to TWO. 

I’ve talked about Kasim a fair bit on the other side - he has updated his thoughts here: http://snowchat4um.com/forums/topic/northern-england-nw-yorkshire-weather-discussion/page/6/

You may find his comments interesting , more than likely to be updated through the weekend too. 

Temp has started to bomb here in Wirral... Wonder if this cold air is digging in sooner than forecast..

this evening sounds very interesting

The weather type radar is showing snow just the other side of the Irish Sea on the Irish coast south of Dublin.

 

I hope Brian doesn’t mind me copying this link , it is no way a rival to TWO. 

I’ve talked about Kasim a fair bit on the other side - he has updated his thoughts here: http://snowchat4um.com/forums/topic/northern-england-nw-yorkshire-weather-discussion/page/6/

You may find his comments interesting , more than likely to be updated through the weekend too. 

Thanks, Joe. He's pretty precise, isn't he?

 

 

Thanks, Joe. He's pretty precise, isn't he?

Very. 🙂 Definitely worth keeping an eye on his posts as he was correct about the events between Christmas and New Year.

The Met Office rain warnings have added the possibility of 1-4cm of snow on the back edge of the system. However as they cover such a wide area it is unlikely that the risk is across the whole area. They probably didn't want to add a new WW as the map is already awash with them.

I would think the Western Pennines are best placed, especially with a westerly wind , may fragment slightly over this side. All 4 of our snowfalls this winter have had NE winds or a NE undercut to pep up the precipitation perfectly for the eastern upslopes. Westerlies do the same for the Western Pennines.

Up to 24mm rain now with periods of heavy rain this afternoon. Still mild at 10c.

Indeed Tim, a new Amber Snow warning just issued for the borders

The Met Office rain warnings have added the possibility of 1-4cm of snow on the back edge of the system. However as they cover such a wide area it is unlikely that the risk is across the whole area. They probably didn't want to add a new WW as the map is already awash with them.

I would think the Western Pennines are best placed, especially with a westerly wind , may fragment slightly over this side. All 4 of our snowfalls this winter have had NE winds or a NE undercut to pep up the precipitation perfectly for the eastern upslopes. Westerlies do the same for the Western Pennines.

Up to 24mm rain now with periods of heavy rain this afternoon. Still mild at 10c.

The MetO app is now showing sleet here between 10pm and midnight at a temp of just 1C... that’s down here at 40m ASL. 

I wonder.... 

 

The MetO app is now showing sleet here between 10pm and midnight at a temp of just 1C... that’s down here at 40m ASL. 

I wonder.... 

You could be well placed but especially those with some altitude around Manchester.  This sort of setup screams surprises though. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=fax&model=fax

Interesting feature running across the South on saturday night/Sunday. Surely snow potential here?

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=fax&model=fax

Interesting feature running across the South on saturday night/Sunday. Surely snow potential here?

There's been one or two features modelled to bring some rain/sleet/snow to the south at varying points of this weekend in quite a few of the GFS runs this week so it's definitely possible. Must admit I usually ignore them until we're within T24 as those little features seem more likely to disappear or end up miles to the south than a defined LP. Given the air source it is also a bit marginal for many in the South so we're relying on intensity and track and a few tweaks to either can mean rain or snow

Fingers crossed though - will be nice to see snow falling at least again, even if it amounts to little or nothing

The feature is bringing mainly rain with brief sleet / snow according to Meto forecast for the South East.

Rain is probably the form horse but the 528 dam line is showing a good distance to the South on the Fax charts. My rule of thumb is that snow is always a possibility once you're on the right side of the 528 dam line. More runs needed, I suppose. 

I would add that some of the snow rows for Sunday are quite impressive in particular for Cardiff and Plymouth. To be taken with a pinch of salt, of course. but enough to have me keeping a close eye on that feature as it approaches.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=plymouth&charthour=006&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM)

This is the 12z EURO4 for snow lying by 6pm Saturday. This is normally a good model for picking up showers/streamer potential. It could be an interesting weekend coming up for NW England, including Manchester and St Helens. Edinburgh too - but I’m not sure if this chart is simply picking up on the existing snow cover there. 

ECM 12z predicts several hours of snow on Sunday morning, with some sleet and rain for the far south/SE.   It delivers a covering of 2cm quite widely.

ICON 12z also predicts snow, with a small disturbance deepening and delivering up to 10cm in parts of north Essex/Suffolk. But ICON has changed with every run.

The BBC R4 forecast at 17.58 concluded with a comment about snow on Sunday, so it's safe to conclude that their models are also showing a high probability.

This is the 12z EURO4 for snow lying by 6pm Saturday. This is normally a good model for picking up showers/streamer potential. It could be an interesting weekend coming up for NW England, including Manchester and St Helens. Edinburgh too - but I’m not sure if this chart is simply picking up on the existing snow cover there. 

Interesting.... I believe the uppers are due to drop to -7 on Saturday. Very promising if we can get under a streamer. I notice the wind direction is showing as WSW which is no good for here. Straight Westerly or WNW is perfect for here.