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06z EURO4 snow accumulation snapshot by 12z Sunday. A classic Cheshire gap setup earlier on with some notable accumulations in SW England associated with the more organised feature. The possibility of lying snow in Manchester, Bristol, Cardiff, Exeter by the end of the weekend.. A lot of the snow showing in Scotland is already lying as we speak.
06z EURO4 snow accumulation snapshot by 12z Sunday.
A classic Cheshire gap setup earlier on with some notable accumulations in SW England associated with the more organised feature. The possibility of lying snow in Manchester, Bristol, Cardiff, Exeter by the end of the weekend..
A lot of the snow showing in Scotland is already lying as we speak.
I sincerely hope that that chart is accurate, Joe!
Expecting 1 - 5cm on Sunday. according to some forecasts.
I think Devon and North Somerset could be in the sweet spot for this one, subject to altitude and distance from the coast.
I have been watching the development of this weekend’s weather with interest. I don’t expect my location to get more than a mix of hail and sleet but I am surrounded on three sides with hills topping out between 670-820ft. This weather set up can give us snow but the conditions are marginal. The fax charts would suggest snow is possible especially on the hills around me.
What is fun is putting that on loop. Looks great for here (although I think this model is showing the absolute top optimistic ceiling), but the final 10 or so frames should have the SW & S contingent getting giddy. It's exciting watching that pink spread all along the Cornwall/Devon peninsula* as the PPN band moves eastwards.
* is there a proper name for 'the Cornwall & Devon peninsula'?
What is fun is putting that on loop. Looks great for here (although I think this model is showing the absolute top optimistic ceiling), but the final 10 or so frames should have the SW & S contingent getting giddy. It's exciting watching that pink spread all along the Cornwall/Devon peninsula* as the PPN band moves eastwards. * is there a proper name for 'the Cornwall & Devon peninsula'?
🤔
The far SW
Gods country
The Shire
I’ve always understood that it’s called ‘the South-West Peninsula’ - which I think includes Somerset.
Some heavy showers moving across central Southern England now as mentioned earlier. Showing as sleet currently.
Looks like fake showers on the radar as it says it showers one over Watford but its clear skies
If 12z EURO4 is correct it’s going to be a pretty snowy weekend ahead for certain parts of the country.
The general theme is an Irish Sea streamer in the early hours of tomorrow morning across Lancs sinking south, followed by widespread snow showers across the NW through the day tomorrow. If it verifies then Manchester will cop it again, and the Wirral (hi Russ) looks to do quite well. This is by no means certain but this model does tend to do quite well with this setup. It could be that Euro4 is overdoing it and only the hills get the snow. Saturday evening:
Sunday evening:
some snow in the SW but slightly less than modelled in the 06z run - this more organised feature is a nightmare to forecast and will probably be a case of checking the radar.
If 12z EURO4 is correct it’s going to be a pretty snowy weekend ahead for certain parts of the country. The general theme is an Irish Sea streamer in the early hours of tomorrow morning across Lancs sinking south, followed by widespread snow showers across the NW through the day tomorrow. If it verifies then Manchester will cop it again, and the Wirral (hi Russ) looks to do quite well. This is by no means certain but this model does tend to do quite well with this setup. It could be that Euro4 is overdoing it and only the hills get the snow. Saturday evening: Sunday evening: some snow in the SW but slightly less than modelled in the 06z run - this more organised feature is a nightmare to forecast and will probably be a case of checking the radar.
Thanks Joe...
I will report back. But this will be a good litmus test of models vs Wirral climate.
Id say 50% chance of this happening. This isnt impossible, we do get snow, but these scenarios happen bout once in every 4 or 5 winters, at best
🤔The far SWGods countryThe Shire
I think that's reserved by our 6-fingered brethren in Yaaaaarksher.
That's a tad boring
Definitely more snow than sleet currently
Hoping for more on Sunday
comparing with recent BBC graphics, that snow cover looks exaggerated.
It may well be. UKV is also much less keen on lying snow here and that may prove closer to the mark.
Worth noting though that the five little snow events we’ve had so far this winter haven’t been especially well forecast by the BBC.
It may well be. UKV is also much less keen on lying snow here and that may prove closer to the mark. Worth noting though that the five little snow events we’ve had so far this winter haven’t been especially well forecast by the BBC.
It’s going to be really interesting to see how tonight and tomorrow plays out. Temp was 1.7C when I last checked and is heading in the right direction. Like classic spells in the past it would be good to get some heavy hail showers first to put down a decent base layer.
If the showers line up favourably later in the night and tomorrow 10+ cms is not impossible here. Hopefully a decent covering for you too.
It’s going to be really interesting to see how tonight and tomorrow plays out. Temp was 1.7C when I last checked and is heading in the right direction. Like classic spells in the past it would be good to get some heavy hail showers first to put down a decent base layer. If the showers line up favourably later in the night and tomorrow 10+ cms is not impossible here. Hopefully a decent covering for you too.
If Euro4 verifies you’re gonna get absolutely clobbered. Good luck :)
Snow falling