First marginal snow event on the 23rd. Places highest at risk include Wales and the NW Midlands.

 

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First marginal snow event on the 23rd. Places highest at risk include Wales and the NW Midlands.

 

 

When you say 'NW Midlands', can you be a bit more specific?

Are you talking the higher parts of Staffordshire? Or more widespread?

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https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_48_2.png 

The temp gradient there shows it could be a tricky one to predict.
Incidently the Met Office automated for here goes for light snow turning back to rain on Wednesday morning.

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https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_48_2.png

The temp gradient there shows it could be a tricky one to predict.
Incidently the Met Office automated for here goes for light snow turning back to rain on Wednesday morning.

 

Agreed.

IMBY, the main back edge departs at around 3pm, but at that time the 850's are only around -3c. 

The 850 temp drops fairly quickly after that, but all that's left in terms of PPN by the time we're due to be under -5c 850's are some broken drizzly fragments.

It won't look exactly like that come the time, but I doubt the colder air will move south any quicker in terms of the ppn band.

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Agreed.

IMBY, the main back edge departs at around 3pm, but at that time the 850's are only around -3c. 

The 850 temp drops fairly quickly after that, but all that's left in terms of PPN by the time we're due to be under -5c 850's are some broken drizzly fragments.

It won't look exactly like that come the time, but I doubt the colder air will move south any quicker in terms of the ppn band.

It's a pity there isn't more cold air embedded as it's quite a neat set up with an area of precipitation moving NE into the cold air before retreating back south. 6z shows intense rainfall which could turn to snow in the early hours for more parts of N England and then another opportunity for places further south later in the day as it intensifies again. Need some upgrades for anything significant though.

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I think the main issue with this event is a lack of calm zones, the wind doesn't fall light enough anywhere. Still west is best to keep the air over land for long enough.

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I think the main issue with this event is a lack of calm zones, the wind doesn't fall light enough anywhere. Still west is best to keep the air over land for long enough.

I am assuming this is different to the snow risk further north (or indeed east later)?

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I am assuming this is different to the snow risk further north (or indeed east later)?

Yeh Xmas eve has snow risk in the form of showers for Scotland and NE England.

 

For the 23rd AROME shows where the high risk areas are:

 

 

You want to be on the northern edge, in heavy precip and light winds.

So NE Wales and possibly south Yorkshire look good.

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Xmas eve look on Q sub -9 FL about 200 metres 528 leaving south coast at that time some ens 12z have added short wave fax shows grouping of heavy showers over the north sea moving into N/E maybe EA later

 

I think the main issue with this event is a lack of calm zones, the wind doesn't fall light enough anywhere. Still west is best to keep the air over land for long enough.

Risk of rain to snow wednesday as the band of rain swipes central england

Onto the next chance, 24th Dec. Looks like a weak front will slip south, anywhere could get a breif snow shower from this, those lucky enough will get their xmas postcard wish.

Then onto 27th onwards for more localised heavy snow showers for just about anywhere as the LP airmasses mix out

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Yet another England/Wales only event which bears no relevance whatsoever, to any of us up here in Scotland and once again, this is just yet another example of how it is usually always the southerners which get the more "interesting" weather.

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I doubt that mix on 23rd will produce any significant goods for anyone #coldrain

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Yes very doubtful that it will produce for anyone apart from the higher Pennine hills for a time tonight. Edinburgh has already had more snow than most this winter and some very interesting thundersnow.

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Yet another England/Wales only event which bears no relevance whatsoever, to any of us up here in Scotland and once again, this is just yet another example of how it is usually always the southerners which get the more "interesting" weather.

I would prefer bright and cold with occasional (perhaps wintry) showers over the “excitement” of wet and windy any day.

 

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I would prefer bright and cold with occasional (perhaps wintry) showers over the “excitement” of wet and windy any day.

 

That would be fine if we could at least get a frost, but that seems to be too much to ask for these days, especially in this part of the world.

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That would be fine if we could at least get a frost, but that seems to be too much to ask for these days, especially in this part of the world.

There will be no shortage of frost over the next 2 weeks.

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Tommorow's event seems to mostly affect Ireland now, the precip to the east is not heavy enough to allow significant evap cooling.

But a few cms in SW Ireland definitely possible.

 

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There will be no shortage of frost over the next 2 weeks.

Given the way that this winter has gone so far though, it wouldn't surprise me if the whole of the UK got a frost, except for those of us who live here in Edinburgh (and possibly, Aberdeen in which case, you will no doubt be hearing a lot from Richard on that one).

 

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Given the way that this winter has gone so far though, it wouldn't surprise me if the whole of the UK got a frost, except for those of us who live here in Edinburgh (and possibly, Aberdeen in which case, you will no doubt be hearing a lot from Richard on that one).

 

Don't panic, Xmas eve probably has higher snow potential than tommorow anyway and you could easily see snow then.

 

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Tommorow's event seems to mostly affect Ireland now, the precip to the east is not heavy enough to allow significant evap cooling.

But a few cms in SW Ireland definitely possible.

 

I suppose that there's a chance of that system correcting to the East a little to affect my neck of the woods?

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