Can the well-informed help me out here?

The snow row for London has a very healthy 19 on it one day, but the numbers don't align with the dates very well.

Is that 19 under 24th, 25th or the interceding night?

 

 

 

 

 

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I think it is the latter part of the 24th.

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I suppose that there's a chance of that system correcting to the East a little to affect my neck of the woods?

Yes but would you really want it.

The worst type of snow. Sleety, wet slushy and what does lay will be gone a few hours later!

 

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Yes but would you really want it.

The worst type of snow. Sleety, wet slushy and what does lay will be gone a few hours later!

 

Thanks, Q. Living in my neck of the woods, I'll take whatever kind of snow I can get! I suspect that any snow will stay to the W/NW of us and most likely some elevation will be needed. However, you never know and if I get a bit of wet snow, I'll be happy enough with that.

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Tommorow's event seems to mostly affect Ireland now, the precip to the east is not heavy enough to allow significant evap cooling.

But a few cms in SW Ireland definitely possible.

 

thats just for a point in time though. As that low tracks south and east, the areas of risk will also change. Doesn’t mean that anywhere else will benefit of course, but that shot doesn’t show that it won’t. 

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thats just for a point in time though. As that low tracks south and east, the areas of risk will also change. Doesn’t mean that anywhere else will benefit of course, but that shot doesn’t show that it won’t. 

Still a risk for Wales, in particular, later however it doesn't look quite as good as when I made this thread. Will do a risk map tonight once the 12z has come throuhg.

 

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Can the well-informed help me out here?

The snow row for London has a very healthy 19 on it one day, but the numbers don't align with the dates very well.

Is that 19 under 24th, 25th or the interceding night?

 

The date point on the x-axis is for the start of that day, so the 25th marks 00.00 hours.

If you look on the far right hand side you can see 7 Jan on the x-axis and the lines stop just after the date, which is 06.00, reflecting the fact that this was from the 06z run.

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Still a risk for Wales, in particular, later however it doesn't look quite as good as when I made this thread. Will do a risk map tonight once the 12z has come throuhg.

 

   One of your maps would be good.

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https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_39_53.png 

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https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_39_53.png 

Yeh looks like a trough type feature. Suspect more snow will come of that than the front, particularly because the snow will be rather dry when it falls.

 

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Thanks Doc and Gandalf for clarifying the question re: snow row dates.

So- a fair chance for Londoners to have an overnight flurry at least, which for me would be the perfect moment.

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Thanks Doc and Gandalf for clarifying the question re: snow row dates.

So- a fair chance for Londoners to have an overnight flurry at least, which for me would be the perfect moment.

 

This is marginal, but if the snow is on back edge, might just survive into daylight if it settles, it is looking like (especially some rural parts) that it will be below freezing and frosty on Christmas morning.  Of course, could be any puddles from the rain has turned to ice as an alternative.

 

 

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I've just had a good look at the 12z Euro4 model. Looking first at the lower atmosphere parameters it suggested a decent prospect of some wintry precipitation so I looked at those charts and they show some sleet and snow mixed in with the rain as the main band moves east tomorrow evening and then again on Eve.

18.00 tomorrow: rain and snow mix.

21.00:

Then mid-afternoon on Xmas Eve a dusting or perhaps a covering for a large part of East Anglia

 

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You left out this one 

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You left out this one 

Actually I omitted it on purpose as it shows the coastal band clear of snow and I thought you'd be unimpressed and Richard would be suicidal... 😉😁

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Actually it has quite a bit of snow over my neck of the woods but at 40hr out I’m not taking it too seriously.

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Actually it has quite a bit of snow over my neck of the woods but at 40hr out I’m not taking it too seriously.

Given that I've seen Euro4 wrong at 6 hours out I agree; it's just that it was not showing what I expected, i.e. more wintry precipitation, however transient.

As we've both commented in recent days, the models have underestimated by several degrees how cold this airmass would be. When it's marginal that's enough to tip the balance from rain to wintriness.

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Actually it has quite a bit of snow over my neck of the woods but at 40hr out I’m not taking it too seriously.

I'm taking it as gospel and waxing the sledge in preparation 

Nothing exciting from this current system . Dipped to 2c during the precipitation in the early hours but there wasn't enough cold air or heavy precipitation about. Some snow above 500m in the N Pennines.

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The Met Office have now issued a warning for snow and ice for this evening into tomorrow morning for the north of Scotland.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2020-12-23&id=6b98833f-70a5-42a0-9352-e37876bec6ae 

“ Issued: 10:05 (UTC) on Wed 23 Dec 2020

Showers across northern Scotland will turn more persistent from late evening, with snow occasionally falling to low levels through the night. This will result in widespread icy patches on untreated surfaces, and up to 1 cm of snow below 100m away from the coasts, with 2 to 3 cm between 200 and 300m. Showers will turn less frequent after dawn on Christmas Eve.”

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