Dont think Edinburgh normally does that well out of WNW showers.
If its lying snow, remember those marked areas all have existing lying snow.

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Dont think Edinburgh normally does that well out of WNW showers.
If its lying snow, remember those marked areas all have existing lying snow.

Thats what I thought - the Edinburgh snow covering shown on Euro4 is existing today. 

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Interesting.... I believe the uppers are due to drop to -7 on Saturday. Very promising if we can get under a streamer. I notice the wind direction is showing as WSW which is no good for here. Straight Westerly or WNW is perfect for here. 

Same for here too. Lots of uncertainly for this weekend but I note a few models are picking up a streamer though our patches tomorrow night. How did Glossop do yesterday evening? 

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Same for here too. Lots of uncertainly for this weekend but I note a few models are picking up a streamer though our patches tomorrow night. How did Glossop do yesterday evening? 

 

That would be great as I’m back home tomorrow afternoon.

I wasn’t home but from the photos I’ve seen there looks to have been a couple of inches. Areas to the West of here with much lower altitude saw heavier precipitation so equalled or exceeded the depth in Glossop. The transition to snow was quite late due to how Far East Glossop is in the region. Was fascinated reading the reports across the region last night.

I was in Carlisle last night at 20m asl. We had some brief  snow but the hills to the South West took all the energy out of it as it approached. 

 

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I would have said a bit more than that still some left in Simmondlley

GFS favouring Central Southern and S.Midlands on Sunday with a light covering..

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Hi-res models seem to have scrapped the idea of any meaningful snow in the south at the weekend, with the precipitation missing us to the south. Very out of kilter with the BBC forecast which has a decent chance of showers throughout the day on Sunday.

 

Meanwhile this evening some models have some heavy showers passing through the south, but conditions will be marginal at best.

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Hi-res models seem to have scrapped the idea of any meaningful snow in the south at the weekend, with the precipitation missing us to the south. Very out of kilter with the BBC forecast which has a decent chance of showers throughout the day on Sunday.

 

Meanwhile this evening some models have some heavy showers passing through the south, but conditions will be marginal at best.

Keep the faith Rob

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Hi-res models seem to have scrapped the idea of any meaningful snow in the south at the weekend, with the precipitation missing us to the south. Very out of kilter with the BBC forecast which has a decent chance of showers throughout the day on Sunday.

 

Meanwhile this evening some models have some heavy showers passing through the south, but conditions will be marginal at best.

GFS 0.25 looks ok but Aperge skirts the S Coast. 
It’s still too early to call Sunday and I’d wait until later tomorrow for clarity. These runners are fickle things.

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GFS 0.25 looks ok but Aperge skirts the S Coast. 
It’s still too early to call Sunday and I’d wait until later tomorrow for clarity. These runners are fickle things.

 

thank Neil... I'll be watching closely to see what you say this time tomorrow.. (no pressure!!) .At this stage, whilst not expecting to see any lying snow in Chichester, a  short trip up onto the downs might prove to be productive... But to avoid disappointment, I'm working on the basis for now of rain with an odd bit of sleet!

Gfs 6z seems to show sundays feature quite well, seems more prominent than in earlier runs but I'm going on memory and nothing else ! I really need to work out how to post pics !!

Looking at the latest Fax charts, the Sunday event looks like it could affect parts of South Wales and the South West, missing the South East. Based on these I'd expect the likes of Dartmoor and Exmoor to be in the firing line:

https://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t48 

https://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t60 

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As ever the snow starved S.E will find itself in marginal territory. Exactly what the LP does and what low  level air gets trapped in its circulation will be critical On paper it could well snow. 850 near to -7C, DP below freezing - what's not to like except it is the S.E and it is the 21st Century!

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As ever the snow starved S.E will find itself in marginal territory. Exactly what the LP does and what low  level air gets trapped in its circulation will be critical On paper it could well snow. 850 near to -7C, DP below freezing - what's not to like except it is the S.E and it is the 21st Century!

 

Icon looks the best bet for Sat into Sun.

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As ever the snow starved S.E will find itself in marginal territory. Exactly what the LP does and what low  level air gets trapped in its circulation will be critical On paper it could well snow. 850 near to -7C, DP below freezing - what's not to like except it is the S.E and it is the 21st Century!

I'm reasonably optimistic that we will see snow from this trough. We had an hour and a half or so of quite heavy snow this morning which to my mind shows what's possible under current conditions. MetEireann is forecasting rain on the West coast of Ireland or Saturday evening but turning increasingly to snow as it moves East. That should also hopefully translate into snow once it crosses the Irish Sea. That said, I do agree that we can only be sure that it will snow until we actually see it falling from the sky!

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New UKM warning for snow covering S and SW for Sunday is a good sign. Still differences across the models but taking a blend of data I’d say most will see some snow falling on Sunday (except the poor IOW - according to the warning graphic)

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GFS 0.25 looks ok but Aperge skirts the S Coast. 
It’s still too early to call Sunday and I’d wait until later tomorrow for clarity. These runners are fickle things.

Yes, the models keep picking up, adjusting and dropping various disturbances. But the WRF model has picked up on two troughs moving through parts of the country on Sunday afternoon and then again overnight.

Here's the mid-afternoon snapshot:

Then again later, here at midnight:

 

ICON 06z shows something similar but with slightly different timing and a less organised feature overnight.

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Will be interesting to see how this pans out tonight into tomorrow for merseyside. Alot of shower potential, and ripe conditions low DPs and Low uppers

Metoffice is giving us all day snow, but its unlikely to come off like that, typically there is usuaully a handful of showers one or two beefy ones, that leave car window wipers full - thats it.

saying that - theres potential for up to Id say 5cm? in the right location.

For the winter so far - this is our best chance at something white laying

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Will be interesting to see how this pans out tonight into tomorrow for merseyside. Alot of shower potential, and ripe conditions low DPs and Low uppers

Metoffice is giving us all day snow, but its unlikely to come off like that, typically there is usuaully a handful of showers one or two beefy ones, that leave car window wipers full - thats it.

saying that - theres potential for up to Id say 5cm? in the right location.

For the winter so far - this is our best chance at something white laying

 

Just a pity it's going to warm up next week and melt anything that lies. 

The longevity of the Jan 10 lying snowfall was part of what made it so special. 

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06z EURO4 snow accumulation snapshot by 12z Sunday. 

A classic Cheshire gap setup earlier on with some notable accumulations in SW England associated with the more organised feature. The possibility of lying snow in Manchester, Bristol, Cardiff, Exeter by the end of the weekend.. 

A lot of the snow showing in Scotland is already lying as we speak. 

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