Local BBC forecast says that as the rain reaches SE Scotland this evening it will turn to snow on higher ground and there may be snow showers tomorrow before more general snow develops on a strong north wind Wednesday night and Thursday

I suspect the really heavy falls will be above 200m but there could be a reasonable fall above 100m away from the immediate coast.

For my backyard, it will be the usual set up. Wet in Leith, bit of slushy snow here and the Pentlands plastered! 

I’m currently watching Thursday night into Friday morning. 

Frontal potential aside, the models often underplay convective snow and I would not be at all surprised to see some Irish Sea showers into Friday morning, with the snow line gradually lowering towards sea level as the colder air moves SE. 

The output I've looked at today inserts less cold air into the system on Wed night into Thursday, so there is much less snow now being modelled away from elevated areas.

Story of the winter for me - so close, yet so far (and downgrading the snow risk once it gets within 48 hours)

 

 

The output I've looked at today inserts less cold air into the system on Wed night into Thursday, so there is much less snow now being modelled away from elevated areas.

Story of the winter for me - so close, yet so far (and downgrading the snow risk once it gets within 48 hours)

Not in Japan they get upgraded every time and now they got another snow storms from the very same LP like we get here. The Pacific which is half more bigger than our nasty Atlantic allowed them to get snow.

 

 

The output I've looked at today inserts less cold air into the system on Wed night into Thursday, so there is much less snow now being modelled away from elevated areas.

Story of the winter for me - so close, yet so far (and downgrading the snow risk once it gets within 48 hours)

Just had a quick skim of the 12z GFS and it looks fairly wintry this weekend but generally further east in the region and over high ground. A westerly needs to be super cold (approaching -10C at 850 hPa) for snow on the Lancs and Merseyside coast. I’ve conceded that Friday morning will probably be too mild away from high ground but we’ll see. 

I think we are in a similar boat in terms of snow chances, Sunday morning is worth watching. 

Friday morning FWIW 

The problem is obvious from the latter charts - the surface temps are just too high, approaching 4C in Manchester, approaching 5C or 6C on the coast. Dewpoints favourable but 850-1000 hPa thicknesses certainly not.

Lots of showers no doubt with that strong westerly and low heights, predominantly of rain in the first instance. 

Conditions do get more favourable as the weekend progresses. There’s a feature moving in on Sunday morning but that also comes with a warm sector. Never straightforward this is it? 

 

Not in Japan they get upgraded every time and now they got another snow storms from the very same LP like we get here. The Pacific which is half more bigger than our nasty Atlantic allowed them to get snow.

It helps japan sits to the east of a massive and cold landmass. Not much modification to the air if you get a stiff northwesterly

.. picks up a bit of moisture and boom..7ft of snow

 

 

It helps japan sits to the east of a massive and cold landmass. Not much modification to the air if you get a stiff northwesterly

.. picks up a bit of moisture and boom..7ft of snow

Indeed. Japan is in a very different climatic zone to ourselves. Isn't Hokkaido one of the snowiest places in the world? So we shouldn't really be comparing the two, same goes for The NE US & SE Canada, completely different. If comparisons are to be made then it should be with the Pacific north west of the US, Seattle and the like and Vancouver & the coastal strip of British Columbia in Canada.

 

 

It helps japan sits to the east of a massive and cold landmass. Not much modification to the air if you get a stiff northwesterly

.. picks up a bit of moisture and boom..7ft of snow

Can be done in here but something always try to deliberated UK from getting any cold air by inserting wrong pressure patterns which mostly down to Azores HP but this winter the Norway LP that I never seen this before by deliberate sitting there for a month to stop the easterly from going to UK by flowing above Scotland on precision level as if been controlled perfectly.  I am sure the stupid LP over Norway will have to move at some point but Azores HP will take on duty to stop UK from getting it.

I've two snow spots on my phone for Saturday and Sunday, really?

It stay there until Saturday and remove itself at the 11th hoir

Friday morning FWIW 

The problem is obvious from the latter charts - the surface temps are just too high, approaching 4C in Manchester, approaching 5C or 6C on the coast. Dewpoints favourable but 850-1000 hPa thicknesses certainly not.

Lots of showers no doubt with that strong westerly and low heights, predominantly of rain in the first instance. 

Conditions do get more favourable as the weekend progresses. There’s a feature moving in on Sunday morning but that also comes with a warm sector. Never straightforward this is it? 

I probably sounded like a negative nelly yesterday when I commented. This was sort of what I was expecting setup wise. Temps at my level will probably hover around 2C which will probably give wet snow but only slushy deposits.

-5 uppers and a strong flow probably won’t cut it below 200m for significant snow. 

With this setup things normally improve after dark so I would expect a few Cm’s here by Saturday morning if the Irish Sea generates enough showers and the direction  is favourable. 

Lack of clear spells doesn’t with the fast moving flow also stops temps from dropping down too. Although it’s one of my favourite setups it’s also one of the most frustrating as so many things need to come together. It’s been a good few years since we had a classic NWly spell here. I’m talking thunder snow, large hail and 4 inches + accumulation. 

What’s the setup for Sunday. I’m hoping it arrives early on.  Sounds interesting. I really hope we get something of note whislt im back for the weekend.

Chris Fawkes on the BBC really ramping up the snow potential for parts of Scotland. Blizzards, drifting snow, power cuts all mentioned. 

Chris Fawkes on the BBC really ramping up the snow potential for parts of Scotland. Blizzards, drifting snow, power cuts all mentioned. 

Yes, although realistically many low lying areas will just see strong winds and heavy rain. It looks much more wintry in the eastern Grampians. With relatively high t850s and lots of mixing the chances of snow at low levels seems to be minimal across large parts of Scotland - well inland and further south may be okay.

 

 

I probably sounded like a negative nelly yesterday when I commented. This was sort of what I was expecting setup wise. Temps at my level will probably hover around 2C which will probably give wet snow but only slushy deposits.

-5 uppers and a strong flow probably won’t cut it below 200m for significant snow. 

With this setup things normally improve after dark so I would expect a few Cm’s here by Saturday morning if the Irish Sea generates enough showers and the direction  is favourable. 

 

Lack of clear spells doesn’t with the fast moving flow also stops temps from dropping down too. Although it’s one of my favourite setups it’s also one of the most frustrating as so many things need to come together. It’s been a good few years since we had a classic NWly spell here. I’m talking thunder snow, large hail and 4 inches + accumulation. 

What’s the setup for Sunday. I’m hoping it arrives early on.  Sounds interesting. I really hope we get something of note whislt im back for the weekend.

You’re absolutely right - these cold westerlies are very fickle. Jan 2015 and 2019 show that they can occasionally deliver the goods to low levels. 

Sunday shows quite a significant area of precipitation moving into the region, worth watching. Sadly dewpoints are shown to be above freezing for most of the region, you may do ok up in the hills. 

Then of course there’s the ECM. 😂😂😂

You’re absolutely right - these cold westerlies are very fickle. Jan 2015 and 2019 show that they can occasionally deliver the goods to low levels. 

Sunday shows quite a significant area of precipitation moving into the region, worth watching. Sadly dewpoints are shown to be above freezing for most of the region, you may do ok up in the hills. 

Looks interesting. I look forward to your updates on that one. Really hope it delivers for the region.  Sod’s law says it will somehow fall as sleet here and give Yorkshire another 4 inches of snow! 

 

 

You’re absolutely right - these cold westerlies are very fickle. Jan 2015 and 2019 show that they can occasionally deliver the goods to low levels. 

Sunday shows quite a significant area of precipitation moving into the region, worth watching. Sadly dewpoints are shown to be above freezing for most of the region, you may do ok up in the hills. 

 

 

 

Looks interesting. I look forward to your updates on that one. Really hope it delivers for the region.  Sod’s law says it will somehow fall as sleet here and give Yorkshire another 4 inches of snow! 

We’ll see , either way it’s an interesting setup.

You only have to look through all the early frames of the ECM to see there is a fair amount of potential, a general westerly flow, low heights and uppers cold enough for snow in many parts of the region from Friday evening. Worth noting it’s still cold Tuesday lunchtime. 

I’d be very surprised if you didn’t see any snow whatsoever, I’d even suggest Saint and I have a small chance, depending on that blasted Irish Sea, both our friend and foe.