true enough, easterlies can develop at relatively short notice, still time yet. FWIW I’m indifferent once I have seen a bit fall, I’ll then happily take mild useable weather through till spring.

I take your point Kieren. What I would add is that neither model covers the period from now until late February which the entirety of the MetO's forecasts go out to and GFS only goes as far ahead as the next fortnight. That only takes us to 11/12th February or around then. As everyone who follows the models regularly must know, anything for more than a week ahead is very much open to change even under normal circumstances and far-off GFS FI can certainly never be relied upon.

Look at the three GFSop runs today as an example of how much they can and do change from one run to the next. For all GFS 12z is poor for cold, deep FI in the previous two runs today looked a bit more prosmising although neither delivered a deep freeze.

In short, all I am saying is don't discount the MetO yet. They were right about a change to colder weather in the middle of this month and they were likewise proved correct about the Beast at the end of last February at a time when some of us were beginning to have doubts.

Wow, that's one hell of a swing mild from the 12z GEFS. It'll be interesting to see whether EPS shows a similar flip later today...

That's because you don't work in Exeter , oddly enough I can 

I certainty am not wound up! Far from it but other members sometimes seem to have it in for me and/or not like me commenting on facts of each run because they are some 10 days out etc!? WHilst i know they will change each run or vary i don;t see what's the harm on commenting on them, comparing them to previous runs or posting charts from Op runs? Or what's wrong with comparing these runs to the Met outlook like what you are doing!? in the end this is the model output discussion and if some people don't wish to see my posts they can always hide them...! It's no biggie.

It is looking much milder and i agree 100%. 

Back to the more reliable time frame it seems like the heavier rain tomorrow will be between 3 and 6pm and by the time the temperature has fallen in time for snow the frontal system would have lost it's omph! So at the best we (east Devon will get light rain and sleet before it fizzles out().

Back to the ensembles they have trended much, much milder since the 06z run in both medium and long term and this isn't just the OP run: - Notice not one GFS ensemble member going down to -10 or below in FI stages? - You can seen by the ensemble mean from around 5th Feb!

12z run

06z run - Notice many ensembles go down between -5 and -10 @ 850hpa into FI and some go below -10 in FI stages of the 06z run:

Fingers crossed and see what the ECM has to offer? and what the 18z run will bring?

The EC clusters - over half of them have built a ridge to the NE  by 9th -10th Feb

I don't see any clear trends yet, only continued uncertainty.

As I said to Kieren, the FI section of the GFS 00z and 06z op runs this morning both looked better for cold IMO than the 12z does.

Actually they haven't they have fluctuated , sometimes there have been 4 or 5  clusters but the fact that the latest has just 2 clusters and over 50% go with a strong HP to the NE really cant be dismissed .

Yes, a big switch to mild in the mean GEFS. Not a good sign.

We have already had others predicting at times earlier this winter that the MetO would drop their colder outlook for later in the winter, and they haven't done so. We had a change to generally colder weather than previously about a fortnight ago and quite a few areas have seen their first notable snow of the winter.

Had the MetO's forecast of a colder second half of January not come to pass and the pattern of December and early January continued up to now, I would have more reason to be doubtful of their thoughts for February. Until there is cross-model agreement, run-to-run consistency on a milder outlook and until such times at the MetO radically alter their forecast for February, I am keeping the faith even if no-one else does.

GEFS12z certainly have flipped milder tonight as Darren said. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=london&charthour=06&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM)

Let's hope they go cold again! I reckon if we can keep the virtual winter on the road for a couple more weeks it will be the best ever. A virtual counterpart to 1963.

Some absolutely ridiculous comments surrounding charts etc out in FI.  Its as if some don't actually get it.  The trend is cold with milder blips with the chance of the potential for a very cold period.  This is very likely to verify, why, because its winter and not yet February, law of averages, just like calling August a warmer month with the potential for it to be hot at times with the likelyhood of some rain.

The MetO have been just about spot on, but read their forecast and when you do, you will notice that they are always full with caveats, it may or it may not, but the likelihood is, but it could change etc.  One thing is true about their forecasters, they are professionals and they do have access to information the likes of you and i can probably only dream of.

If you feel a need to post charts from two weeks from now showing snowmeggedon or BBQ time, at least have the intelect to justify your remarks with a reasoning based on facts that support your theory, rather than some churlish remark based on the fact that it looks good and fits your agenda. 

I live in the Midlands and we still dont really know what our weather potential regards snaow is going to be tomorrow, let alone a BBQ 2 weeks away.

In one set surely it is a sign of uncertainty? In two or more sets it is potentially a trend. Let’s see the 18z. If it is a big switch in the other direction is that a good sign, or a blip or highlighting the uncertainty? I would say the latter. 

Having said that it is not the direction cold weather fans will want to see I’m sure but if it continues I hope it switches to very mild anticyclonic early spring loveliness. The chances of that I fear are slim (as it is still midwinter!).

All this aside why have we switched from dismissing FI to seemingly only talking about it when there is so much of interest in the coming week? 

A quick look through the 12z GEFS suite is actually quite interesting. The high 850s are mostly due to high pressure sitting over or close to us, but not many from zonality.

Maybe all is not lost and pressure will build more NE on subsequent runs?

GFS-p certainly seems to go with a total whiteout 

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs-para&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=weas&HH=84&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=