Indeed.... people are perhaps reading too much into 850s... that said, there’s not much to support a cold/very cold February in the models at the moment.... however, the fact it’s blocked mean there’s more potential for something to appear ofnoit nowhere 

Not quite. 

Happens all the time....850's change and its a mild flip WIO …….doesn't show ground temps  

In agreement with you 

One of very many scenario's 

Another ….all primed 

And another 

And another 

And another 

And another

And another

The above are from the mild flip GFS 12z , if people cant see why there could well be colder weather down the line then rub your eyes, I certainly can see why the Met are keeping it in their LRF's at the moment , all is not lost

GFS Para does look wintry this Friday! If only though!

With output like his around at 72hr people may miss what is underneath some of their noses while staring into the distance. Do we get varifocals for weather watchers? 

I don't often comment in the MOD thread as I'm not really qualified to do so but I do dislike the useless off topic stuff (so im breaking my own rule here) which appears from time to time. 

Discussion of the model output with reasoned opinion and sometimes excitable stuff without is all fine but there is no need to link it to the Met Office forecasts or any other for that matter - that belongs firmly in the media thread. Frankly I think that those who are posting "it's got to change soon.." etc are either deliberately on the wind up or at best like the drama that ensues from both sides of the debate that inevitably follows. I mean no disrespect to any of the posters on here as they all make valuable contributions - this aspect though isn't one of them .

So here is a plea to Brian and the other moderators to keep the thread clutter free. 

*gets back into his hole and puts hard hat on.

Unless you’re in Aberdeen!

I realised after posting, the slim portion of eastern Scotland  

I can't understand why there's not much interest in the next 72hrs personally 

Aberdeen misses out on the snow in that chart!

Icon shows the snow for Thursday night into Friday mostly affecting the middles and central areas:

They aren't all for JFF , fill your glass up K

If it is consistent with previous runs I would expect it to become milder/less colder from this point.

Not sure of your age moom but i can assure you we have had much worse than this winter....may i also point out we still have a 3rd of winter left yet ...you along with other known posters have been writing winter off since november.

The new cold army out in force this evening?

I wouldn’t label myself as a ‘known poster’, but ensemble charts like this do not signal the chance of a very cold Easterly regime at all.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

And I’m well aware 850s do not always represent the surface or 500mb setup, but we’ve used them for years to monitor the longer term trends and as the UKM have been claiming a high chance of Easterly type weather since Christmas we naturally look for signs in the models we have available. This is after all model discussion is it not?

And for the next few days - there’s a thread for that.

GEFS trending less cold and drier later in the run with higher pressure, at odds withe the 6z - I wonder how we'll fare with the 18z? Different again no doubt from this flip-flopper model. Our signal for higher pressure into February is a reasonably strong one. Pressure also forecast to rise over Oslo, albeit much more scatter which only serves to highlight the uncertainty in the output.

It is easy to see the uptick in the mean on the GEFS and automatically think along the lines of winter iso ver and sharpen the pitchforks for the Met Office but, thanks to some well-reasoned posters on here we are made aware that there is much more to it than that.

I'd be lying if I wasn't disappointed with the GEFS this evening but February's weather is far from determined and won't be for some time. As Doc says we've got enough on our plate this week let alone confidently calling trends thereafter. Interpreting the model output is fine but some do it with a certainty that the mild solution will win. AFAIK it has been rather cool to cold for some time now...

I know that the BBC don't get their forecasts from the MetO now, but Alina Jenkins on last night't week ahead forecast did mention the possibility of a brief milder period in the second week of February before the cold returns towards mid-month.