The Weather Outlook

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ballamar
11 December 2018 09:45:56
Part of me still thinks the high could hold haha

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_48_1.png 

Gandalf The White
11 December 2018 10:04:57

Part of me still thinks the high could hold haha
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_48_1.png

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

The 06z delays things a little more but there's a rise of pressure from the south-west that effectively cuts off any chance of energy slipping SE at the weekend.  It also fizzles the first frontal system in the south.

 

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



ballamar
11 December 2018 10:08:06

 

The 06z delays things a little more but there's a rise of pressure from the south-west that effectively cuts off any chance of energy slipping SE at the weekend.  It also fizzles the first frontal system in the south.

 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

 

indeed ideally that little low would deepen in Biscay and sink that high to the south - close this time but promising repeating attern hopefully 

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
11 December 2018 10:24:49

 

The anomaly over eastern Europe next week is between 0 and 2c; hardly significant or dramatic surely?

The charts haven’t ever really suggested either an extended cold spell or a particularly cold one.  

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

That's what comes of looking at early morning charts. It was around +8C anywhere east of Poland at 7am GMT, and, yes, it's now back down as you say. The deep reds NE of the Urals were much further west. Just illustrates the variability in forecasts that we're seeing at the moment.

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

The Beast from the East
11 December 2018 10:44:03

I guess one positive is that we cant yet rule out a White Xmas. Normally by this time it is all over for another year, but there is still enough uncertainty to cling to

 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Gandalf The White
11 December 2018 10:44:43

 

That's what comes of looking at early morning charts. It was around +8C anywhere east of Poland at 7am GMT, and, yes, it's now back down as you say. The deep reds NE of the Urals were much further west. Just illustrates the variability in forecasts that we're seeing at the moment.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Yes, sometimes I wonder why we bother....

 

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



ballamar
11 December 2018 10:48:46
Messy outlook from this GFS run, at this time of year can lead to surprise snowfalls
Gandalf The White
11 December 2018 10:56:09

Messy outlook from this GFS run, at this time of year can lead to surprise snowfalls

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

The 06z throws up another push of WAA in time to give a seasonal feel to Christmas but everything is further east due to more energy in the jetstream pushing out of North America.  Just another variation on a theme, of course, at this range.

One thing is clear: there's no evidence of proper mobile zonality returning.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Rob K
11 December 2018 11:08:11

 

One thing is clear: there's no evidence of proper mobile zonality returning.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

 

Um...

 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Gandalf The White
11 December 2018 11:17:45

 

 

Um...

 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

 

Eh?? That's one LP system, not mobile zonality. It's also just one snapshot when you need to see the movie.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



JOHN NI
11 December 2018 12:14:49

 

 

Eh?? That's one LP system, not mobile zonality. It's also just one snapshot when you need to see the movie.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Thats true - but more important again is to identity the trends over time and that pressure pattern (or something similar to it) has been appearing quite a lot over the last few days.  It has Positive phase of the NAO written all over it which in turn is supported by the emerging MJO. At the moment, the evidence is pointing towards a mobile, changeable and rather mild Christmas. Of course, if we just happen to tap into a short period of Pm air to the rear of a low pressure system...who knows. Two weeks out - its just too early to say. I wouldn't even be overly confident about this weekend.....though an Atlantic storm of some sort seems possible.....

John.

The orange County of Armagh.

JACKO4EVER
11 December 2018 12:23:16

 

Thats true - but more important again is to identity the trends over time and that pressure pattern (or something similar to it) has been appearing quite a lot over the last few days.  It has Positive phase of the NAO written all over it which in turn is supported by the emerging MJO. At the moment, the evidence is pointing towards a mobile, changeable and rather mild Christmas. Of course, if we just happen to tap into a short period of Pm air to the rear of a low pressure system...who knows. Two weeks out - its just too early to say. I wouldn't even be overly confident about this weekend.....though an Atlantic storm of some sort seems possible.....

Originally Posted by: JOHN NI 

very reasoned post John. A more mobile and changeable pattern could be the form horse towards Christmas, nothing overly mild though I wouldn’t have thought. A few eyes will be watching water levels as i wouldn’t be at all surprised if it turned quite wet. 

Ally Pally Snowman
11 December 2018 12:33:18

 

Snow rows up to 9 on the 14th. Very poor after that though . looking very average fairly wet all the way to Christmas. 

 

 

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gandalf The White
11 December 2018 12:33:21

 

Thats true - but more important again is to identity the trends over time and that pressure pattern (or something similar to it) has been appearing quite a lot over the last few days.  It has Positive phase of the NAO written all over it which in turn is supported by the emerging MJO. At the moment, the evidence is pointing towards a mobile, changeable and rather mild Christmas. Of course, if we just happen to tap into a short period of Pm air to the rear of a low pressure system...who knows. Two weeks out - its just too early to say. I wouldn't even be overly confident about this weekend.....though an Atlantic storm of some sort seems possible.....

Originally Posted by: JOHN NI 

My point was that on the recent runs there have been very few LP systems running across the Atlantic.  On the 06z there are two in 10 days, which to me is nothing like a mobile pattern.

As for a positive NAO, you may be right but the modesl are not showing that as translating into typical zonality yet.  As it stands we're not looking at feeding off scraps of transient Pm air just yet.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Russwirral
11 December 2018 12:46:26

 

Snow rows up to 9 on the 14th. Very poor after that though . looking very average fairly wet all the way to Christmas. 

 

 

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

 

GEFS isnt hinting at it, but i feel like weve been here before... I think theres a blind chance we maybe heading towards a more prolonged easterly.   Each run the atlantic seems to be forced a little more south, and the pressure to the north a little more pronounced.

Even the LP in the med seems a little more "Pepped up " which seems to beckon the LP tracks towards it.

 

My idea just isnt present in the charts yet.

 

it feels like we are heading towards a tipping point where the floodgates will open to the idea...

 

Shoot me down - but im sure weve seen this before.

Weather station:

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 

Ally Pally Snowman
11 December 2018 12:51:39

 

 

GEFS isnt hinting at it, but i feel like weve been here before... I think theres a blind chance we maybe heading towards a more prolonged easterly.   Each run the atlantic seems to be forced a little more south, and the pressure to the north a little more pronounced.

Even the LP in the med seems a little more "Pepped up " which seems to beckon the LP tracks towards it.

 

My idea just isnt present in the charts yet.

 

it feels like we are heading towards a tipping point where the floodgates will open to the idea...

 

Shoot me down - but im sure weve seen this before.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

 

I tend to agree with you but think we will have to wait to about New Years day ish before it kicks in. Decent update from the Met Office today would suggest about then as well.

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
11 December 2018 12:52:29

 

 

GEFS isnt hinting at it, but i feel like weve been here before... I think theres a blind chance we maybe heading towards a more prolonged easterly.   Each run the atlantic seems to be forced a little more south, and the pressure to the north a little more pronounced.

Even the LP in the med seems a little more "Pepped up " which seems to beckon the LP tracks towards it.

 

My idea just isnt present in the charts yet.

 

it feels like we are heading towards a tipping point where the floodgates will open to the idea...

 

Shoot me down - but im sure weve seen this before.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

 

The Liverpool GEFS isn't even as good as that London one, and it's a similar tale in Sheffield & Birmingham. Norwich looks good, though (19 snow rows on Friday/Saturday!).

It's why I struggle to get excited about easterlies. Unless they're from a high to our N or NE, they rarely deliver for this part of the world. Far better blocking to our NW and a big whopping Scandi/north North Sea Low.

 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Rob K
11 December 2018 12:54:21

 

 

Eh?? That's one LP system, not mobile zonality. It's also just one snapshot when you need to see the movie.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

One LP system, but symptomatic of a pretty zonal pattern around the northern hemisphere. Look at the shape of the PFJ - it basically traces a roundabout, rather than the rollercoaster of peaks and troughs that would produce more chance of something interesting from the north or east.

 

 

Until that big purple blob gets squeezed or bisected and stops looking basically circular, it's going to be yawnsville as far as our weather is concerned. Hopefully that will begin to happen towards the end of the month. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

ballamar
11 December 2018 13:34:49

 

 

GEFS isnt hinting at it, but i feel like weve been here before... I think theres a blind chance we maybe heading towards a more prolonged easterly.   Each run the atlantic seems to be forced a little more south, and the pressure to the north a little more pronounced.

Even the LP in the med seems a little more "Pepped up " which seems to beckon the LP tracks towards it.

 

My idea just isnt present in the charts yet.

 

it feels like we are heading towards a tipping point where the floodgates will open to the idea...

 

Shoot me down - but im sure weve seen this before.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

 

Very low chance below 5% but it would fascinate me if it did happen like when fronts used to get pushed back west unexpectedly and the analysis of what happened. Until the high is gone an SW winds in place I hold out hope but that’s all it is!!

tallyho_83
11 December 2018 14:33:57

Has anyone taken a look at the met Office Global long range seasonal probability forecast maps from Jan, Feb to March? If not then Look at pressure... they seem very confident about blocking over Iceland and Greenland.

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Russwirral
11 December 2018 14:40:11

Has anyone taken a look at the met Office Global long range seasonal probability forecast maps from Jan, Feb to March? If not then Look at pressure... they seem very confident about blocking over Iceland and Greenland.

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

 

Link please?

Weather station:

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 

Brian Gaze
11 December 2018 14:40:17

FYI NCEP have reported extra latency on some of their data sets during the last 24 hours. That means some GFS/GEFS/CFS charts could appear later than usual regardless of the site you view them on. 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Retron
11 December 2018 15:59:55

Link please?

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/public-sector/contingency-planners

 

Leysdown, north Kent
Roonie
11 December 2018 16:18:56
Arpege worth a look at 114 hours...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=114&mode=45&map=300 

Still Lurking.......

North Worcestershire

Rob K
11 December 2018 16:21:34

Arpege worth a look at 114 hours...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=114&mode=45&map=300

Originally Posted by: Roonie 

Amazing how the snow sweeps right down to the coast in northern France, but misses all of southern England!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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