Not without interest for some, I would say.

Thats the point, it is showing snow because the parameters are there. That’s the way the models work, it’s not as if they think for themselves!

Cherry picking is not really sensible in these setups at this range (IMO)

Yes you are right Neil and my point is not that the last couple of ECM runs showing snow is the likely option merely that is an option. 

It will be an interesting few days coming up. 

If after all these years you still cant read a chart & understand what it shows then there is no point in even helping you.

UKMO raw would have an area of snow from London / essex up through to the midlands. All north of the boundry.

GFS 0z with a differentish evolution as we move into FI, with a GH ridging southwards into the mid-Atlantic, and a huge area of slack low pressure over Scandinavia. Gives us a coldish northerly flow followed by a messy breakdown that gives an outside chance of snow around Xmas (but the Op is one of the coldest evolutions and tge GEFS snow rows are poor). Its an unsettled picture throughout, even in the south.

ECM tries to get energy sliding SE'wards twice in the run but doesn't really manage it and it's messy throughout. But there is a lot blocking to our north, strengthening as the run progresses, which will hopefully extend southwards to affect more and more of the UK, with lows forced onto a more southerly path.

All in all not very festive in the run up to Xmas, but not actually a million miles away and, if like Steve Murr and some others believe, the outcome evolves only a bit differently and energy does move SE'wards instead of driving away the fledgling block to our E/NE, we could get much better conditions.

Have to say, fascinating model watching. Next week still far from decided and further out much to be excited about with upper atmosphere events. This is going to be a great winter for model watching me thinks Short term trend for me tho is edging back to white from wet but what a forecasting nightmare lol.

So, the cold air hasn't made it to the UK, and heavy rain is spreading East on Thursday morning, the flow has turned SWerley -

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.gif

GFS raw ppt type has some sleety snow over Ireland which fits in with this profile.

ICON 6z also shows the cold air failing to get into the east. Personally I wouldn't totally discount the possibility of a snow event away from northern high ground next Thursday but think you'd need to be barking to put your last £ on it happening.

Very mild and wet next Saturday morning on the GFS -

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.gif

A messy but finely balanced picture once again on the GFS op run.

Was Steve talking about the (06z) GFS op output? I thought he was referring to the UKMO and ECM? 

FWIW here is the ECM snow line chart for Thursday evening

18Z Thursday - snow line at no more than 200ft for some eastern areas

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/snow-line/20181213-1800z.html

Freezing level is around 800ft at best

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/freezing-level-feet/20181213-1800z.html

3 hour precipitation chart for the same time

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/precipitation-total-3h-in/20181213-1800z.html

Very marginal but worth keeping an eye on. Could be a covering of snow to higher ground. But would only be temporary.

  - flooding becoming an issue if this run comes off, a really dreadful pattern and as shown on the ECM, signs of a West based NAO with pressure rising over Europe by day 10.

Here is the snow depth chart (for England) for Saturday morning on the same run https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/snow-depth/20181215-1200z.html 

Its called selective filtering...

Why anyone would continually follow the GFS in this scenario as opposed to the UKMET or ECM which both show snow events is beyond me-

Time & time over the GFS gets it wrong...

S

So many pizza slices here in the UK so far this winter - we need a break from pizza it's not healthy!

All 1 week of it?

Whilst there is nothing noteworthy of any cold coming - keep an eye out over the Stratosphere from the Siberian Side:

We eventually push the oranges and red's into the Arctic region and onto the n. Pole now. This has been quite consistent. It's a long way off and of course can change but it does fit into a potential cold blocked start to January if this comes off and the HP block sets up right over Scandinavia  2-3 weeks down the line. During the last major SSW it was 15 days until we saw beast from the east. The warming was around 9th - 12th Feb 2018 and the easterly hit us from 25th Feb 2018. 

So if this comes off between 19th and 21st December then we are looking at a much colder or fingers crossed). - Bitterly cold 1st/2nd week of January 2019. Fingers crossed but all depends on the blocking and where the HP sits.

This major SSW is forming from the same side of the Arctic and into the N. Pole similar to the warming last time - so many the block will be in same position or does it depend. Another question...i wanted to ask?

Has there ever been a case where a SSW has been so great that it's got above -5c in stratosphere? The temperatures look like they are off the scale here on this model output? Have we ever seen 0c or +5c before in strat over Arctic? and is it the case that the more significant the SSW/ MORE WARMER it is the bigger and more extensive the blocking? anyone?