Whilst there is nothing noteworthy of any cold coming - keep an eye out over the Stratosphere from the Siberian Side:
We eventually push the oranges and red's into the Arctic region and onto the n. Pole now. This has been quite consistent. It's a long way off and of course can change but it does fit into a potential cold blocked start to January if this comes off and the HP block sets up right over Scandinavia 2-3 weeks down the line. During the last major SSW it was 15 days until we saw beast from the east. The warming was around 9th - 12th Feb 2018 and the easterly hit us from 25th Feb 2018.
So if this comes off between 19th and 21st December then we are looking at a much colder or fingers crossed). - Bitterly cold 1st/2nd week of January 2019. Fingers crossed but all depends on the blocking and where the HP sits.
This major SSW is forming from the same side of the Arctic and into the N. Pole similar to the warming last time - so many the block will be in same position or does it depend. Another question...i wanted to ask?
Has there ever been a case where a SSW has been so great that it's got above -5c in stratosphere? The temperatures look like they are off the scale here on this model output? Have we ever seen 0c or +5c before in strat over Arctic? and is it the case that the more significant the SSW/ MORE WARMER it is the bigger and more extensive the blocking? anyone?
Originally Posted by: tallyho_83