Nice image from the WRF of model radar, note the very clear eye.

That will be interesting to watch over the next 48 hours or so. Interestingly, the 'big 3' forecast maps don't seem to make a lot of it, with central pressure only falling to about 1011mb or so. Is that because these forecasts understate these uncertain phenomenon? Or is the central pressure not as significant as, say, the symmetrical warm core you mention? (I did note the 60-hour FI timescale).

Fascinating stuff Quantum - please keep us updated on the progress of this storm.

Fascinating stuff Quantum - please keep us updated on the progress of this storm.

 

Couldn't agree more MM; arguably the most fascinating topic on TWO currently.

That will be interesting to watch over the next 48 hours or so. Interestingly, the 'big 3' forecast maps don't seem to make a lot of it, with central pressure only falling to about 1011mb or so. Is that because these forecasts understate these uncertain phenomenon? Or is the central pressure not as significant as, say, the symmetrical warm core you mention? (I did note the 60-hour FI timescale).

For some reason the GFS/ECM/UKMO never seems to show medicanes well on surface level pressure maps. I've noticed something similar with actual tropical storms in the Atlantic only showing them well after they have begun to transition to midlatitude storms. I think it may well be because the storms are so small, you just can't appreciate the gradient without a zoomed in view.

Although I think in general these models just do not handle meso level systems well at all. The WRF is on the other hand really good at it.

 

For some reason the GFS/ECM/UKMO never seems to show medicanes well on surface level pressure maps. I've noticed something similar with actual tropical storms in the Atlantic only showing them well after they have begun to transition to midlatitude storms. I think it may well be because the storms are so small, you just can't appreciate the gradient without a zoomed in view.

Although I think in general these models just do not handle meso level systems well at all. The WRF is on the other hand really good at it.

 

That seems higher resolution- a bit like the Arpege- what's WRF (so I can investigate it)?

 

That seems higher resolution- a bit like the Arpege- what's WRF (so I can investigate it)?

High resolution American open source model.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_Research_and_Forecasting_Model

Things look pretty hairy by Saturday on the northern eye wall! Approaching cat 1 strength. Also a medicane that lasts 2 days is a very long lifespan. That's like 20 days for a normal hurricane.

The low has moved over land and deteriorated as expected. The interesting part starts now, once the low moves back over ocean rapid intensification will begin. Already some convection is evident to the south of the Island.

Storm looking quite sheered and disorganised.

Hints though of an eye wall trying to develop; still most convection is decoupled from the centre.

Every time I see 'Medicane', I still think of a topical pain relief.

Convection still very disorganized with most to the north of the LP centre. System pretty much stationary at the moment, although it should now begin to turn eastward.

Incidentally I'm naming the storm Trixie; that's the one that won the poll.

Track has changed again, these things are so unpredictable even when you are forecasting them a day in advance! Tunisia now looks unlikely to be hit. Malta may get hammered though. More updates shortly.

Holy crap. This could actually be the 2nd strongest Medicane on record if this is right. Peaking at a catogary 1 strength storm. There has only been one storm to ever do this, the 1995 Monster which made cat 2.

Also development of Medicanes tends to be fast and over fast like a flash in the fire. This is the opposite, very slow to develop; in many ways far more typical of normal tropical storms than medicanes.

The WRF projection. I think this is probably an exaggeration; its really quite unbelievable.

Trixie first turns west and hits Malta

Turns back eastward and intensifies.

As it nears Greece, there is sudden rapid intensification as wind speeds hit Cat 1 strength

Further intensification near Greek Islands. This could be pretty damaging.

Interaction with land causes some weakening

But then some reintensification of system as it transitions back to a extratropical style system. And undergoes bombogenesis

If it comes off, pretty devastating floods For Turkey?

Lower resolution models starting to pick it up now!

Warm core shows up particularly well on anomaly charts. Note the +4C circle

Lower resolution models starting to pick it up now!

 

 

 

Warm core shows up particularly well on anomaly charts. Note the +4C circle

 

Yes now you see, that's the detail I would've missed had you not pointed it out. So it's moving east again by Monday- and that will be- what- a 4 day lifespan? How long did the 95 beast last?

 

Yes now you see, that's the detail I would've missed had you not pointed it out. So it's moving east again by Monday- and that will be- what- a 4 day lifespan? How long did the 95 beast last?

Only 2 days, which is still a long time for a Medicane.

Storm seems to have fully transitioned.

Still 'medistorm' level strength (<39mph) but I'm satisfied that this is not a only a baroclinic system anymore

Clear eye visible on the 18Z +60hr; at this point it is still intensifying.