Some bursts of convection in the med after an extremely quiet few weeks.

http://en.sat24.com/en/eu/infraPolair

 

Thank you- succinct. Does the tropospheric latitudinal gradient keep pace with changes at the surface- if it's slower, as I suspect (not opining strongly here- I don't know but the Med is relatively landlocked compared to the open Atlantic), won't the vertical thermal gradient be reduced, especially say, in mid-autumn, when the Med region has lost all that late summer heat?

It takes a surprisingly long time before the Med is too cold for medicanes, they have been seen even as late as March! Although the unofficial season of September-January is pretty much what I would expect would happen if the mediteranian got an actual season.

Diagram from this paper: http://www.hvonstorch.de/klima/pdf/medicanes_clim.pdf

There really is a lot of fascinating research out there about medicanes. Anyway activity doesn't really drop off until February.

There is a pretty brief window where medicane formation may be possible

There is a cold cutoff low to the north; if that was sitting over the med it would be ideal conditions for medicane formation. As it is, conditions are less good but still the best for several weeks. high pressure is set to build later in the med which will completely kill off any potential for medicane formation.

Finally there is something worth reporting. Models are going for a high probability of medicane development at around 60 hours. The cyclone is expected to follow an unusual track moving south westward towards Africa, possibly Impacting Tunisia or Sicily later.

Simulated radar image from the WRF

Cyclone phase space map from the GFS.

Note the track is highly uncertain, the longer it stays away from land the more time it has to undergo tropical like transition. The GFS has it developing a symmetrical warm core before hitting Africa.

Note, FI for medicanes is pretty much 60 hours, the models are terrible at handling these systems so the uncertainty is still very high. This is interesting though.

Finally there is something worth reporting. Models are going for a high probability of medicane development at around 60 hours. The cyclone is expected to follow an unusual track moving south westward towards Africa, possibly Impacting Tunisia or Sicily later.

 

Simulated radar image from the WRF

Cyclone phase space map from the GFS.

Note the track is highly uncertain, the longer it stays away from land the more time it has to undergo tropical like transition. The GFS has it developing a symmetrical warm core before hitting Africa.

Note, FI for medicanes is pretty much 60 hours, the models are terrible at handling these systems so the uncertainty is still very high. This is interesting though.

That's a stunning-looking storm. You mention that it's an unusual direction it appears to be heading in. One thing I haven't picked up from your posts is the frequency of trajectories. Are there enough each year for you to make any statements about those Q?

 

That's a stunning-looking storm. You mention that it's an unusual direction it appears to be heading in. One thing I haven't picked up from your posts is the frequency of trajectories. Are there enough each year for you to make any statements about those Q?

Yes. Medicanes typically form in the western part of the basin (near the balearic islands) and then more on a generally eastward or north eastward trajectory typically making landfall in either France or Italy. This one is slightly more unusual as it seems to want to track southwards and possibly westwards.

 

Yes. Medicanes typically form in the western part of the basin (near the balearic islands) and then more on a generally eastward or north eastward trajectory typically making landfall in either France or Italy. This one is slightly more unusual as it seems to want to track southwards and possibly westwards.

 

Could it be in any way related to - and this sounds ludicrous- what's happening at higher latitude, with the current tendency for an Easterly set up? Maybe a displaced LP belt over Europe?

 

Could it be in any way related to - and this sounds ludicrous- what's happening at higher latitude, with the current tendency for an Easterly set up? Maybe a displaced LP belt over Europe?

Yeh it seems possible, although I'm by no means an expert on this.

Models seem to have downgraded the medicane potential largely due to a strong interaction of the LP with Sicily giving it less time to undergo a tropical like transition. Although many models try to develop it after it has moved to the south, although it won't be easy as the air is quite dry.

Note the eyewall type feature on the ICON.

Yes I can still see its structure, but it's a far cry from the ballerina-like image from off of Italy.

WOW massive upgrade on the 12Z WRF. Truly amazing intensification.

Unfortunately the key hides it, but the system really develops after its interaction with scicly. Strong symmetrical warm core development. Chance that this could be a really strong medicane.

UKMO phase space map is pretty amazing.

Unambiguously warm cored system. I think we might be about to witness something quite special if this comes off.

So it begins....

Well, since it found a second kick-start near Sicily- how about Messina for a girl or Palermo for a boy?

Well, since it found a second kick-start near Sicily- how about Messina for a girl or Palermo for a boy?

If it gets big enough, you could call it The Godfather?

 

If it gets big enough, you could call it The Godfather?

 Or just Marlon; except in keeping with the hurricane tradition since the September one was Stephanie, perhaps a female name. Marlene?

Rolls off the tongue nicely- Medicane Marlene.

Convection already starting to appear round the central LP. Its not tropical like yet, but is showing the first signs of transitioning.

However before it does, it will weaken dramatically when it interacts with Scicily, it will only complete transition after it has passed to the south of the Island.

Convection already starting to appear round the central LP. Its not tropical like yet, but is showing the first signs of transitioning.

However before it does, it will weaken dramatically when it interacts with Scicily, it will only complete transition after it has passed to the south of the Island.

 

 

OK sorry, I missed the point in post #31; so South of Sicily, we have Malta- maybe Valletta is too obvious but one of its suburbs- Tarxien- although odd, would at least be true to the alphabetical sequencing of Atlantic storms. Or, I notice all the roads on Malta being called 'triq' in Maltese; so what about Trixie (or even Triqsy?).

The one thing that makes me think that this event could really be special is that it actually passes into waters warm enough for full on tropical cyclones to form. It completes transition in waters as warm as 26C; for a medicane this is ridiculously warm and may produce something as strong as the 1996 storm.

 

OK sorry, I missed the point in post #31; so South of Sicily, we have Malta- maybe Valletta is too obvious but one of its suburbs- Tarxien- although odd, would at least be true to the alphabetical sequencing of Atlantic storms. Or, I notice all the roads on Malta being called 'triq' in Maltese; so what about Trixie (or even Triqsy?).

Thanks for the suggestions, I've put it to a twitter poll.

This is the track of the storm. The first impacts will be southern Italy and Scicily tonight. However it will not be a full on medicane by then. It could hit Tunisia though as a full on Medicane. They will not be used to this kind of severe weather.

 Another point to briefly make is that Medicanes in the 'eastern subbasin' are rare, comprising only 10% of all medicanes. Totally bizarre that so far this season we have had an extremely rare Biscay storm, and now we are going to get a medicane in a part of the med that doesn't usually see them.