A reasonable synopsis that appears to have been lost amongst the toys heaping up underneath the prams

06GFS  - it's an easterly, don't knock it LOL

 

People are too fixated on getting another 2010.

 

Let winter do what it wants.

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Not being funny but that was for the SW and he said any prolonged or significant cold weather, how often does the SW get that ???

 

Surely he was talking about the country as a whole when looking into January ? How would they be able to determine North/South splits when looking a month ahead, it would be impossible.

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Morning all, a bit cooler up north this weekend and thereafter anyone's guess. In the meantime another fantastic day's weather here with sunshine and light winds- very acceptable for the time of year

December still looking a total write off then? Who would have thought that? Record December CET very much on the cards now. Just feel sorry for the flood hit areas as the charts show no solace. Anyone would take a cold high over this now. Shockingly bad charts again. Can start thinking January could follow suit too before long. Never has a pattern change been more sought after.

December & January are likely to be mild and zonal given all current indications.

As we know things can and do change within 5 days but el nino does not favour this until the end of winter. We could be waiting til late Feb early March like recent years, by which time I'll be looking forward to spring sunshine and and end to relentless Autumnal greyness & gales. 

 

 

Surely he was talking about the country as a whole when looking into January ? How would they be able to determine North/South splits when looking a month ahead, it would be impossible.

 

W COUNTRY OUTLOOK Probability of any significant or prolonged cold weather rest of Dec-early Jan is low; models agree often mild & unsettled

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First Xmas day chart

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First Xmas day chart

I'm dreaming of a mild green Christmas.

Just like every other year.

With old Jacko smiling and Moomin moaning,

And Gooner posting just for fun.

I'm dreaming of a mild green Christmas

With every Christmas card I write,

May your days been gloomy and damp,

And may Gooner have another ramp! 

 

😊

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I'm dreaming of a mild green Christmas.

Just like every other year.

With old Jacko smiling and Moomin moaning,

And Gooner posting just for fun.

I'm dreaming of a mild green Christmas

With every Christmas card I write,

May your days been gloomy and damp,

And may Gooner have another ramp! 

 

😊

Very good

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TomC's post earlier was worth reading for those who feel a mild rest of December is inevitable!

Meanwhile, here are the ECM ensembles - there is still a cold cluster, albeit it has fewer members than recently. The op run was one of the mildest again. This sort of thing is to be expected as the models flipflop around with their handling of the upstream pattern.

The GEFS ensembles also show a (minority) cold cluster:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=6&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

The only thing that's certain is the outlook isn't nailed-on in any way, shape or form!

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First Xmas day chart

Sub zero 850s under a ridge of HP would at least be chilly and frosty though - not the green and mild of song ;-)

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I know weather is a hobby for most that post on here and surely we all know the default pattern for Winter in the UK is SW winds and rain, heaviest in the usual parts of the North and West. Any change in this rule of thumb are less likely than anything else and weather like the Winter of 2010 is as rare as they come however having said the above I concede that the current level of mildness both here and in other parts of the Northern hemisphere is unprecedented so far this Winter and it's going to take some major pattern shift to move it, something which looks as far away as ever from any output I have seen this morning.

I suggest we all observe the outputs from a distance and don't become paranoid by a phantom Northerly or Easterly shown at t360 or the like and let the season take it's course. There will likely be some surprises along the way between now and March but I for one won't be counting the chickens before they are hatched.

Incidentally for those that follow statistics and verification figures and diss the 10 day mean charts supplied by ECM should take note that it is the only model at that range that has not deviated much from the current pattern for nearly a month now and for me that suggests it has been on the money all along and I wouldn't mind betting it's current showings for 10 days time will continue to be not far off come the day.  

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I know weather is a hobby for most that post on here and surely we all know the default pattern for Winter in the UK is SW winds and rain, heaviest in the usual parts of the North and West. Any change in this rule of thumb are less likely than anything else and weather like the Winter of 2010 is as rare as they come however having said the above I concede that the current level of mildness both here and in other parts of the Northern hemisphere is unprecedented so far this Winter and it's going to take some major pattern shift to move it, something which looks as far away as ever from any output I have seen this morning.

Most also know the default December CET isn't 6C above average.

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TomC's post earlier was worth reading for those who feel a mild rest of December is inevitable!

Meanwhile, here are the ECM ensembles - there is still a cold cluster, albeit it has fewer members than recently. The op run was one of the mildest again. This sort of thing is to be expected as the models flipflop around with their handling of the upstream pattern.

The GEFS ensembles also show a (minority) cold cluster:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=6&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

The only thing that's certain is the outlook isn't nailed-on in any way, shape or form!

Sorry Darren. With utmost respect to you as one of the most knowledgeable posters here, but a mild rest of December is absolutely inevitable. You need look no further than the exceedingly bullish Met Office update and the general state of all the NWP. It is unrelenting dross for the rest of December and I daresay January will turn out exactly the same. This pattern is locked into place and we are in my view definitely in need of something major in 2016 to get us out of this. No doubt that will arrive at the end of February to give us a cold and thoroughly depressing start to spring before northern blocking returns to ruin summer 2016. That is sadly the climate we live in. 

And even if we get a brief cold snap which is highly unlikely in my view, the December CET WILL come out well above the average. There can't be any doubt left in that.

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Sorry Darren. With utmost respect to you as one of the most knowledgeable posters here, but a mild rest of December is absolutely inevitable. You need look no further than the exceedingly bullish Met Office update and the general state of all the NWP. It is unrelenting dross for the rest of December and I daresay January will turn out exactly the same. This pattern is locked into place and we are in my view definitely in need of something major in 2016 to get us out of this. No doubt that will arrive at the end of February to give us a cold and thoroughly depressing start to spring before northern blocking returns to ruin summer 2016. That is sadly the climate we live in. 

And even if we get a brief cold snap which is highly unlikely in my view, the December CET WILL come out well above the average. There can't be any doubt left in that.

If it is as absolute and inevitable as you say, why are bothering to view this thread and post here? 😉

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Can someone wrestle Moomin away from the keyboard for his own sake please! He's disappearing in to an abyss of depression!

Get outside and enjoy the spring sunshine!

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What a lovely festive chart to see as we near Christmas. Dear me.

ECM ens mean

The 06h GEFs at 180h (Next Wednesday) has a 65:35 split for cold:mild.The cold number of ENS are the result of HP over or near to the UK which should at least supply a frost or two.Moving forward zonal is back 85:15 by 240h and 384h far off is 60:40 mild.

 

 

If it is as absolute and inevitable as you say, why are bothering to view this thread and post here? 😉

Good question Neil!

The MetO updates in themselves have altered at least a couple of times in the past week. For a few days at the end of last week they mentioned about the possibility of a colder & drier spell later in December, and only yesterday the 16-30 day update mentioned that there was quite a lot of uncertainty wrt late December. I would find it hard to imagine that they could go from being somewhat unsure yesterday to being 100% sure today.

I must say I'm starting to get somewhat tired of these posts in which some seem to speak as if they have some kind of a crystal ball. Now I read that January is likely to be a write-off as well. What are some people, Mystic Meg?

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Can someone wrestle Moomin away from the keyboard for his own sake please! He's disappearing in to an abyss of depression!

Get outside and enjoy the spring sunshine!

There's a fine line between depressing and trolling.. I've already been told off so I'll keep it as nice as possible.. but the moderation on this forum need to curtail the useless and uninformative posts. Very misleading for new viewers.

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Can someone wrestle Moomin away from the keyboard for his own sake please! He's disappearing in to an abyss of depression!

Get outside and enjoy the spring sunshine!

I have absolutely nothing to be depressed about believe me. For more reasons than one I am on the contrary very much the opposite to depressed.

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