No snow all winter, but starts falling on the first day of spring. 

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No snow all winter, but starts falling on the first day of spring. 

But it is still winter if you don't think of the metrological timelines for the seasons.

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Front looking more active than expected, this should increase the snow risk.

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My rough estimate at the snow risk tommorow to lower levels. Most of the snow will be from the heavy showers behind the front, not the front itself. Devon and the South west are at high risk in particular which makes this an odd map to draw.
https://snipboard.io/4L3M8z.jpg 

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I was in Q's 60 % range, and those in the 80% range are seeing the snow settle. Good call for Ireland at least

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The short term maps always seem to get a good reception so might do one for tommorow later which I don't expect to be much easier. Evap cooling dominated events seldom are.

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My rough estimate at the snow risk tommorow to lower levels. Most of the snow will be from the heavy showers behind the front, not the front itself. Devon and the South west are at high risk in particular which makes this an odd map to draw.
https://snipboard.io/4L3M8z.jpg 

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

I'm on the boundary of the 40% and 60%. 

Plenty of rain so far but no snow.


Edit - the Pennine M62 no snow. Flash Bar Store and Cat & Fiddle both got lying snow (https://www.maccinfo.com/Flash/ )

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I'm on the boundary of the 40% and 60%. 

Plenty of rain so far but no snow.


Edit - the Pennine M62 no snow. Flash Bar Store and Cat & Fiddle both got lying snow (https://www.maccinfo.com/Flash/ )

Coming down pretty thickly here. Not sure where this occluded front is currently positioned but don't rule out a few surprises later for yourself as it swings closer. 

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I'm on the boundary of the 40% and 60%. 

Plenty of rain so far but no snow.


Edit - the Pennine M62 no snow. Flash Bar Store and Cat & Fiddle both got lying snow (https://www.maccinfo.com/Flash/ )

Tbh I think most of that coin flip is going to be in the showers later rather than the front. Look out for heavy showers later that turn to big sticky flakes when they get heavy enough. Intensity really will be key with marginal freezing levels.

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The short term maps always seem to get a good reception so might do one for tommorow later which I don't expect to be much easier. Evap cooling dominated events seldom are.

Q - am I right in thinking our proximity to the center of the Low, will also be a factor? as in temperatures required and DPs?

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Q - am I right in thinking our proximity to the center of the Low, will also be a factor? as in temperatures required and DPs?

Yes, the closer to the centre the slacker the wind which should increase the effectiveness of evap cooling and bring the temperature down more efficiently. The wind direction also matters. Chunky is seeing snow from the front while saint is not largelly because he is downstream of the evap cooling. Evap cooling is occuring over the entire front and that cold air is being advected westward, so the further west you are, the better you are going to do in this setup.

However for people like Saint, the wind direction is going to change later to become less easterly and more southerly which should increase the risk of snow since it will put him more downstream of the evap cooling effect.

I should add we are fairly lucky the centre of the low has formed over land and not the sea. Occluded LPs generally form something called a 'warm seclusion' which is almost like a warm core characturistic when they spin over open water. That would kill off any snow potential pretty quickly.

 

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Rain here and 3.2c, the front lost its intensity. A few days back it looked like a covering was possible from the band but there have been downgrades in the last 48 hours. 

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Rain here and 3.2c, the front lost its intensity. A few days back it looked like a covering was possible from the band but there have been downgrades in the last 48 hours. 

You could still get a covering, some of these showers later will be really quite heavy. Get the right shower and you could drop alot of snow pretty quickly. Though I expect this to more apply to places like Bristol than Leeds.
 

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The wind direction also matters. Chunky is seeing snow from the front while saint is not largelly because he is downstream of the evap cooling. 

 

For what it is worth, wind direction here is NNW. Wind about 5 knots mean (light), with steady pressure (987mb) 

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For what it is worth, wind direction here is NNW. Wind about 5 knots mean (light), with steady pressure (987mb) 

https://xcweather.co.uk/

Overall though its  still downstream, I'm guessing you are in the part where it starts to curl back, if you follow the arrows back you can see how far the air has had to travel; even if we assume some warming up over the Irish sea. By contrast in Northern England there is a fairly quick direct route from the north sea.

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Thick snow instantly turned to light rain. Not even a gradual transition. Very messy. sloppy front. 

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Thick snow instantly turned to light rain. Not even a gradual transition. Very messy. sloppy front. 

Slight change in wind direction may push the cold air elsewhere!

The last snow event (in my sig) went the opposite direction I saw rain to snow within about 15 minutes. Evap cooling events can be downright wierd as you can end up with very local pockets of cold air. For example if there is a very big shower later that generates its own downdraught and then advects that cold air somewhere else it could turn another light shower to snow unexpectedly. Usually this doesn't happen because winds are too strong and blown directly from the sea. However today we have the really quite rare combination of 'cold enough' uppers under a slack low.

When evap cooling is involved it also shows how pointless uppers become; its all about wind speed, direction, and humidity.

EDIT: you'll notice on my map I put literally the entire british isles (except the far SW of Ireland, channel islands, scily and the far SE) under the 20% or above zone. I don't usually do this and its deliberate, I expect basically anywhere could see snow today and it will be very local depending on where these little pockets of cold air are.

 

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I should add that the showers will not also entirely rely on evap cooling. There is also a 'brute force, so heavy that it literally drags cold air down' element.
 

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Slight change in wind direction may push the cold air elsewhere!


 

Spot on. Changed from NNW to NNE. 

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Spot on. Changed from NNW to NNE. 

Your bubble of cold is on its way to cornwall and devon now.

Its time to look South west for the snow risk. Its not often plymouth and exetor are in the firing line!
 

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Dewpoint trend over the last hour here. Sudden and steady rise upon slight windshift. 

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