By the same token then so is any given model run at any time, because that’s what they are created from

And we all know model runs aren’t forecasts 

I've heard that said, however I would consider anything that predicts the weather to be a forecast and the models most certainly do that. Or do you only count human interpretation of model output to be a 'forecast'?

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Had a few more bursts of snow and now 8cm. Drizzling now but not thawing at 0.1c. 
Wonder if the next big batch will be snow or icy rain . 

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most pathetic covering… had so much potential. Initial grey inbound clouds like the good old days, but rather than whispy light snow was more of a snizzle and damp covering. Guess that it for this ‘spell’

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According to the Met we have heavy snow forecast from 8am until 5pm, I am equally not convinced

I was wrong not to be convinced.  The forecast was right and the rain turned to heavy snow that settled readily. We got a good depth in a short space of time.  Roads really bad and traffic at a standstill in places. It’s back to rain now, just as forecast but the snow’s clearing very slowly. 

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https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/snow-risk 

Some heavy snow for Scotland esp the NE through today and tomorrow. Some more hill snow for the west, as far south as the Lakes, on Mon 12th, then only in the Highlands and only occasionally until end of forecast Sat 24th.

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I suspect the snow up here will be confined to higher ground away from coastal areas.

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Looks like the possibility of a bit of snow in places Friday /Saturday.
​​​​​​Messy picture with the low sat over us but definitely an opportunity Friday morning as a band of rain, sleet and snow pushes north east with higher ground North Wales and Northern England at risk. 
 

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Looks like the possibility of a bit of snow in places Friday /Saturday.
​​​​​​Messy picture with the low sat over us but definitely an opportunity Friday morning as a band of rain, sleet and snow pushes north east with higher ground North Wales and Northern England at risk. 
 

Airmass isn't that cold so this is an evap cooling event.

Key factors:

Wind strength: Stronger = less snow since evap cooling potential reduced
Wind direction: Advection from land is colder, coastal regions may get rain if wind is coming off the sea
Precip intensity: Higher intensity = more evap cooling = greater propensity for snow
Frontal coherence: More coherent front = stronger precip (see above)
Orographic blocking: Mountain chains tend to break fronts up so the directio of 'attack' is important
 

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Looks like the possibility of a bit of snow in places Friday /Saturday.
​​​​​​Messy picture with the low sat over us but definitely an opportunity Friday morning as a band of rain, sleet and snow pushes north east with higher ground North Wales and Northern England at risk. 
 

Even if there was the chance of snow here in Edinburgh from that, this would be happening a bit too late in my books as we will then be into March which means that I would much rather just be getting on with spring by then.😡

Sadly though, that's not how our weather works.

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Looks like it may sweep rapidly across Scotland from a south-easterly direction, giving everything from low hills upwards a freshening-up.

Will be welcome at Glencoe Ski, I'd imagine, where they've had a few cracking days recently. Worth checking some of the photos on their website.

Looks like it may sweep rapidly across Scotland from a south-easterly direction, giving everything from low hills upwards a freshening-up.

Will be welcome at Glencoe Ski, I'd imagine, where they've had a few cracking days recently. Worth checking some of the photos on their website.

As a total aside, I travelled through Glencoe in summer 2022 and was awestruck. It instantly got a place in my top 10 favourite places on earth I've visited.

 

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Looks like the band might be a bit delayed which means Peak District/Buxton might be best placed, in this completely marginal situation arriving further North later in the morning will mean less chance of snow as it will have warmed up a bit .

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Risk of thundersnow on the south coast Friday night as CAPE gets unusually high under cold air.
 

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Looks like the band might be a bit delayed which means Peak District/Buxton might be best placed, in this completely marginal situation arriving further North later in the morning will mean less chance of snow as it will have warmed up a bit .

Equally though the air behind is not any warmer in this situ, in fact potentially the opposite so there could be heavy showers following; this could actually be the real story; not the dying occluded front.

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We need a Quantum map!

 

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We need a Quantum map!

 

Will do one after the 12zs. Its a very unusual snow patteren I think. Parts of the far south and SW could get some surprises on Friday afternoon!

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Equally though the air behind is not any warmer in this situ, in fact potentially the opposite so there could be heavy showers following; this could actually be the real story; not the dying occluded front.

Slow moving bands Friday night into Saturday on some models like NMM.  GFS 6z looks fairly intense precipitation from initial front too. 

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Will do one after the 12zs. It's esa very unusual snow patteren I think. Parts of the far south and SW could get some surprises on Friday afternoon!

Yes, am thinking 300m+ up on the Moor could do nicely out of this, maybe a snowy walk this weekend which would be nice.

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Equally though the air behind is not any warmer in this situ, in fact potentially the opposite so there could be heavy showers following; this could actually be the real story; not the dying occluded front.

I think any snow that falls will be little more than white water at lower levels. 

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My rough estimate at the snow risk tommorow to lower levels. Most of the snow will be from the heavy showers behind the front, not the front itself. Devon and the South west are at high risk in particular which makes this an odd map to draw.
https://snipboard.io/4L3M8z.jpg 

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