This thread is best used for potential developments i.e. model outputs, while accounts of actual snowfall go in the 'reports' thread, now entitled 'December to February'.

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An interesting divergence in the forecasts for this neck of the woods. The Met Office are going for a full day of snow tomorrow, whereas the BBC are going for a full day of rain and sleet. It shows how marginal this is likely to be, and it looks like I'm going to be right on the borderline.

Met Office forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcw0vvk8p#?nearestTo=Blackrod%20(Wigan)&date=2024-02-08 
BBC forecast: https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2655454 

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An interesting divergence in the forecasts for this neck of the woods. The Met Office are going for a full day of snow tomorrow, 

Met Office forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcw0vvk8p#?nearestTo=Blackrod%20(Wigan)&date=2024-02-08 
BBC forecast: https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2655454 

I’m not sure they are? The forecast from the MetO on the page you’ve linked for your area reads:

”Thursday:
A chilly and frosty start. Winds will strengthen through the morning with outbreaks of rain arriving from the south, this likely turning to sleet and snow at times. Maximum temperature 4 °C”

If you mean the symbols? That’s not a forecast, it’s just one model run interpretation with zero human input. They’re pretty useless at the best of times

Scroll down the page for your actual human forecast 

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Amber warning for the  Southern Pennines, Bradford down to Leek. Shows there is the potential for some very heavy falls in places. 

5 Miles from the amber area, probably prefer that as could be overreaction and closing schools in advanced on low ground inside the amber warning area.    

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Amber warning for the  Southern Pennines, Bradford down to Leek. Shows there is the potential for some very heavy falls in places. 

5 Miles from the amber area, probably prefer that as could be overreaction and closing schools in advanced on low ground inside the amber warning area.

Nothing for the "Horseshoe round The Wash", sorry to say. 🙄

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I see that Edinburgh is under an official yellow warning for snow and ice between tomorrow evening and Friday afternoon.

I have no doubts though, that this is probably going to be yet another complete waste of time as these things generally never come to anything any more, especially here in the north Edinburgh where I am (the south of Edinburgh usually has a slightly better chance of getting something from that but it still wouldn't surprise me one bit there was very little or nothing at all there as well in the end).

I was watching Mark Vogan's video from yesterday (I haven't yet caught up with Gavin P.'s videos and I know that Gusty has also been doing a series of snow watch videos on his channel which I haven't yet caught up with), and the model output which Mark was showing at the time seemed to show that any snow coming up to Scotland would be more likely to just turn to rain before it gets here due to some milder air coming more into the mix, except for up over the hills and mountain.

That model output might have changed since then of course but based on that, the omens aren't exactly looking good for here as far as any snow or ice prospects are concerned.

 

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I agree John. The top of Arthur's Seat and The Braids may turn white. The Pentlands definitely will. In most areas of the city it will be wet stuff. 

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I’m not sure they are? The forecast from the MetO on the page you’ve linked for your area reads:

”Thursday:
A chilly and frosty start. Winds will strengthen through the morning with outbreaks of rain arriving from the south, this likely turning to sleet and snow at times. Maximum temperature 4 °C”

If you mean the symbols? That’s not a forecast, it’s just one model run interpretation with zero human input. They’re pretty useless at the best of times

Scroll down the page for your actual human forecast 

The symbols are a representation of what the Met Office considers the weather will do in that location over a period of time, so definately a 'forecast' in that respect. You may question their accuracy but that is another matter entirely as they are most definately a weather forecast.

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Tomorrow looking even more marginal now, some sleet symbols appearing on Met Office app even at 200m and NMM model shows much lower accumulations.  Not really able to say to anyone  with certainty whether it will snow significantly here tomorrow. 

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Tomorrow looking even more marginal now, some sleet symbols appearing on Met Office app even at 200m and NMM model shows much lower accumulations.  Not really able to say to anyone  with certainty whether it will snow significantly here tomorrow. 

sleet and then rain for me, thoroughly pointless !

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The symbols are a representation of what the Met Office considers the weather will do in that location over a period of time, so definately a 'forecast' in that respect. You may question their accuracy but that is another matter entirely as they are most definately a weather forecast.

Disagree, Col. They’re just whatever the model spits out from run to run. They change multiple times daily. There is no human intervention in these or tweaking and can often be completely at odds with the text forecast, particularly the further out you go in days 

It’s also why the various apps are so at odds with each other constantly as they use different models to spit out their info however many times per day 

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4c here with dewpoint around 3c. Can't see any snow falling here later despite most of the models suggesting that I will, if only for an hour or two before it turns back to rain. 

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I think most low level locations will only see rain or wet snow, however inland with elevation there could temporarily at least be some significant accumulations, especially in N England.

There may be some more showers up here until the front moves north bringing the milder air later on Friday. (Most of last night’s snow is still on the ground currently).

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A very dumbed down forecast from Darren Bett looks like rain for most just snow on hills now. 

Disagree, Col. They’re just whatever the model spits out from run to run. They change multiple times daily. There is no human intervention in these or tweaking and can often be completely at odds with the text forecast, particularly the further out you go in days 

It’s also why the various apps are so at odds with each other constantly as they use different models to spit out their info however many times per day 

As COl said, they may be rubbish but they are a forecast.

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As COl said, they may be rubbish but they are a forecast.

By the same token then so is any given model run at any time, because that’s what they are created from

And we all know model runs aren’t forecasts 

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Light rain has just started here but the Met Office phone app and radar show it’s due to turn to snow.  Any we do get isn’t likely to settle on wet ground unless it’s very heavy.  I’m still not convinced. 

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Judging from Meteireann, there does seem to be snow across Northern parts of RoI and presumably up into NI too. 

https://www.met.ie/latest-reports/observations 

So not a complete fail in terms of a forecast for snow on this side at least.

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Light rain has just started here but the Met Office phone app and radar show it’s due to turn to snow.  Any we do get isn’t likely to settle on wet ground unless it’s very heavy.  I’m still not convinced. 

According to the Met we have heavy snow forecast from 8am until 5pm, I am equally not convinced

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