Met Office Hadley          16.0c.         Anomaly       2.1c.  Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                       16.51c.       Anomaly       2.36c.

Netweather                    16.88c.       Anomaly       2.79c.

Peasedown St John     17.4c.          Anomaly        1.2c.

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If June is at 16.0 or above, it will be interesting to see to see how December turns out. Only two Junes with CETs of 16 or above have been followed by Decembers above 5C

There are a lot of such Junes followed by cold Decembers.

Merry Christmas!

 

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My latest calculations have the CET peaking at 16.42C on Thursday before steadily drifting down to 16.15C.

Still looks like it will be slightly below average for the final few days of the month. So a real change from what we have now. Nevertheless my 16.2C prediction is looking rather good at the moment. But I rather suspect it may not cool down as much as the models are showing.

We nearly set a CET date record yesterday. A return of 21.9C just below the 22.1C set in 2005. Tomorrow the CET could hit 21.6C but this is below the date record of 22.7C.

Met Office Hadley           16.2c.        Anomaly        2.3c.    Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                        16.59c.       Anomaly          2.45c.

Netweather                     17.08c.       Anomaly          2.99c.

Peasedown St John        17.8c.         Anomaly         1.6c.    

 

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Met Office Hadley           16.2c.        Anomaly        2.3c.    Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                        16.59c.       Anomaly          2.45c.

Netweather                     17.08c.       Anomaly          2.99c.

Peasedown St John        17.8c.         Anomaly         1.6c.    

 

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A CET of 16.0C or more for June is a wonderful start too the summer. Just wonder what July and August will bring.

 

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My latest calculations have the CET peaking at 16.42C on Thursday before steadily drifting down to 16.15C.

Still looks like it will be slightly below average for the final few days of the month. So a real change from what we have now. Nevertheless my 16.2C prediction is looking rather good at the moment. But I rather suspect it may not cool down as much as the models are showing.

We nearly set a CET date record yesterday. A return of 21.9C just below the 22.1C set in 2005. Tomorrow the CET could hit 21.6C but this is below the date record of 22.7C.

 A few days ago I said I thought your 6.2 would be closer than my 5.5c. I too have a feeling it won't cool down as much as the models suggest because we've seen a lot of above average temps this year and it seems to be the pattern - hopefully for the rest of the summer too. I'm loving it!  

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Met Office Hadley          16.5c.       Anomaly       2.5c.  Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                       16.87c.     Anomaly       2.73c.

Netweather                    17.32c.     Anomaly       3.23c.

Peasedown St John     18.1c         Anomaly        1.9c.

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Plugging in raw numbers from the latest GFS run, I get a mean for 22nd-30th of 14.5*C, which is pretty naff for late June, and this drags the monthly CET down to 15.9*C.

There is a good chance this is at least a little overdone for the evolution of weather patterns that it produces, as the model has a problem with dropping temps too far at night and quite often doesn't bring them up enough by day either; just look at today for example which has plenty of 19s and even a few 20s across central parts of England compared to GFS' 16s and 17s.

On the other hand, ECM positions the low further east and sets up just about the coolest airflow that could be achieved over a multi-day period at this time of year, so if anything the CET mean for the period could be lower if that model was on the money. Thankfully ECM's over-amplification tendencies are working against locking-in the trough in such a position for so many days.

 

Overall this will surely* be remembered as Roller-coaster June, having swung from unusually windy (and wet up north) to very warm or (depending on location) exceptionally hot (and very dry down south at least) and then - after a few mixed/changeable days - back toward cooler, generally windier and probably wetter than average (for the northwest at least) conditions for the final few days.

It's fascinating from a meteorological perspective, but it does leave some people feeling very unlikely should they have missed the mid-month window of wonders.

 

 * Presuming the models aren't completely off on one with respect to next week!

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Met Office Hadley        16.6c.       Anomaly        2.6c.   Provisional to 22nd.

Metcheck                     16.86c.      Anomaly          2.71c.

Netweather                  17.38c.      Anomaly          3.29c.

Peasedown St John     18.1c.        Anomaly         1.9c.     

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The latest adjustments in the position of the main low mean that nights may be warmer than expected:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_87_uk2mtmpmin.png?cb=459

and a week of CETs near 15 this late in the month (say, 11s and 19s) will perhaps only bring the CET down half a degree.

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Met Office Hadley          16.5c.          Anomaly          2.6c.   Provisional to 23rd. 

Metcheck                       16.89c.         Anomaly           2.74c.

Netweather                    17.36c.         Anomaly           3.27c.

Peasedown St John      18.1c.           Anomaly          1.9c.

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Met Office Hadley            16.5c.         Anomaly         2.5c    Provisional to 24th

Metcheck                         16.89c.        Anomaly          2.74c.

Netweather                      17.38c.        Anomaly          3.29c.

Peasedown St John      18.1c              Anomaly          1.9c

   

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Still looking like a chilly week to come, so I make the final number somewhere between 15.9 and 16.0C. Would be nice to get a 16 for the first time in ages.

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Agreed. Below average temperatures from today for the rest of the month, although not that much below average.

Current estimate is for the CET to finish at 16.02C.

Handy that the weekend saw some higher temps than GFS predicted - in fact much higher in places on Saturday (Pershore reached 24.2*C!) - but we have also seen the upcoming low become cloudier in the model projections, with less of a diurnal convective element; longer spells of rain instead becoming favoured.

So the best chance to still finish above 16.0*C will be if the nights can be plenty mild, and with the trough drawing in plenty of warm air from the near continent, we should have a good chance of that. In fact any breaks in the cloud - which models like GFS will likely be unable to resolve - could see temps jumping up into the high teens or low twenties in places, even if only for a short time.

Breaks do look few and far between though - but of course this helps keep the night temps up so either way there's some gain to be had 

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Met Office Hadley          16.5c.     Anomaly       2.5c. Provisional to 25th.

Metcheck                       16.81c.   Anomaly       2.66c.

Netweather                    17.33c.   Anomaly       3.24c.

Peasedown St John     18.0c.     Anomaly       1.8c

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I doubt we'll see it fall below 16c now. With only five days left it would have to fall by 1c every day, notwithstanding final downward adjustments,   That would mean some pretty cold daily means. 

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I doubt we'll see it fall below 16c now. With only five days left it would have to fall by 1c every day, notwithstanding final downward adjustments,   That would mean some pretty cold daily means. 

Agreed, another mild night last night and the coming nights certainly won't be cold though daytime maxes are nothing to get excited about...

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Met Office Hadley           16.4c.        Anomaly       2.4c.  Provisional to 26th.

Metcheck                        16.78c.       Anomaly        2.63c.

Netweather                     17.29c.       Anomaly        3.2c.

Peasedown St John      18.1c.        Anomaly         1.9c.

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