Run out of time for a detailed post today so will try and add some detail to the thread tomorrow evening.
Please post your CET predictions for June in this thread. Entries can be made until 23:59 on the 2nd (Friday evening) without penalty.
Historic summary for June
1971-2000 14.1C
1981-2010 14.5C
1997-2016 14.7C
2014 and 2016 both saw the June CET just above 15C. 2011-2013 and 2015 were all below average but not by much. We have not had a really warm June since 2006 when we saw 15.9C. Not had a really cold June since 1987 when it was 12.8C. Since then the coldest was 13.6C in 1990 and 2013.
Current model output
850's looking generally fairly warm. T2m temperatures at De Bilt fairly average though with a handful of hot runs thrown in
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=205&bw=&lat=51.7522&lon=-1.2560&zip=
https://meteoijsselmuiden.nl/knmipluim
Met Office contingency planners outlook
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-jja-v1.pdf
Suggests an increased probability of a warmer than average June and summer overall. But that does not necessarily mean it will be hot or that we won't see cooler periods at times.
Pattern Matching - JFF
Looking at recent years where all the months from Feb to May were more than 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean we find the following for the June CET
2014 15.1C
2007 15.1C
1999 13.9C
1992 15.7C
Other years which were generally very warm from Jan to May but not necessarily more than 0.5C above the mean in all months prior to June:
2004 15.3C
2002 14.4C
2000 15.1C
1998 14.2C
1990 13.6C
So this would suggest at least a 50% chance of the June CET being 15C or more. The probability of the June CET being below average looks very low.
Couple that with the fact that 8 of the last 14 June's have been above 15C and there seems to be a strong signal for a warm June.
Edited by moderator
30 July 2017 14:18:16
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Reason: Not specified