A steady rise now and I have a feeling the month will end above my 15.5c guess. 

My latest estimate is 15.60C by the 28th. So your prediction is looking good at the moment. The CET actually falls very slightly in the final few days as temperatures return close to average for the end of the month.

I need the hot weather to stick around longer through next week if we are to get close to my guess of 16.2C. Not out of the question by any means though at this stage. I would say anything from 15.4C to 16.2C is possible at the moment.

Metcheck               15.03c.           Anomaly    0.88c.
Netweather            15.52c.           Anomaly    1.43c.

Met office Hadley    14.9c.            Anomaly    1.2c. provisional to 14th.

Met Office Hadley             14.9c.        Anomaly   1.2c.

Metcheck                          15.04c.       Anomaly   0.90c.

Netweather                       15.52c.       Anomaly    1.43c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather   15.1c.        Anomaly    1.9c.

Clevedon Weather           15.9c.        Anomaly    0.5c.

Mount Sorrel Weather      15.6c.        Anomaly    1.5.  

Peasedown St John      15.9c.        Anomaly     -0.3c.      

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Met Office Hadley            15.0c.        Anomaly        1.2c.    Provisional to 15th.

Metcheck                         15.03c.       Anomaly         0.98c.

Netweather                      15.63c.       Anomaly         1.54c.

Peasedown St John        16.0c.        Anomaly       -0.2c.

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I reckon we might get to 16C.

 

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Met Office Hadley       15.1c.       Anomaly   1.3c.    Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                    15.35c.     Anomaly    1.21c.

Netweather                 15.73c.     Anomaly    1.64c.

Peasedown St John  16.1c.        Anomaly     -0.1c.

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Surprisingly small increases in the last week. I think we'll leap up over the next 7 days as it's going to be warm in the West and NW, where most of the CET stations are. Also warmer nights.

Looking like a 16C+ unless the last week of the month turns chilly again.

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I now expect the CET to reach 16.25C by next Friday. After that it turns much cooler but the CET still finishes above 16C. If the heat sticks around until the end of the month then a CET of 16.5C is quite possible.

Anything above 16.1C makes it the warmest June since 1976. If we reach 16.5C then it will be the second warmest June since 1878 (after 1976 which was 17.0C).

CET tracker 1

CET tracker 2

As GW says we could well finish with another well above average month. this must be becoming unprecedented. I thought we were going to crash to average this month after such a run of months.

Here is the list of the years with the warmest first 6 months in the CET series. 

Looks like 2017 will finish somewhere between 2nd and 5th place in this list.

2007  9.70C
2017  9.55C EST (if June CET finishes at 16.5C. 9.50C if it finishes at 16.2C)
2014  9.52C
1846  9.52C
1822  9.48C
1990  9.38C
1686  9.33C
1834  9.32C
1775  9.28C
2002  9.27C
1998  9.23C
1733  9.20C
1868  9.12C

I think yours was a pretty good call this month GW. I'm sure your 6.2c will be closer than my 5.5c guess!  

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So the warmest June since 2003 is looking very likely at this stage, with the chance of the warmest June since 1976 increasing by the day. A notably warm start to the summer is certainly the case this year.

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17 Junes in the CET record had a CET of 16.2C or more. 1976 comes in only 5th and 2003 18th, A shot at the top 20 is certainly on the cards.

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Met Office Hadley         15.4c.     Anomaly        1.5c. Provisional to   17th. 

Metcheck                      15.71c.   Anomaly        1.57c.

Netweather                   16.07c.   Anomaly         1.98c.

Peasedown St John    16.4c.      Anomaly        0.2c. 

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I now expect the CET to reach 16.25C by next Friday. After that it turns much cooler but the CET still finishes above 16C. If the heat sticks around until the end of the month then a CET of 16.5C is quite possible.

Anything above 16.1C makes it the warmest June since 1976. If we reach 16.5C then it will be the second warmest June since 1878 (after 1976 which was 17.0C).

CET tracker 1

CET tracker 2

 

Trevor Harley says that June 1976 had a CET of 16.5C:

http://www.trevorharley.com/weather_web_pages/1976_weather.htm

 

 

Trevor Harley says that June 1976 had a CET of 16.5C:

http://www.trevorharley.com/weather_web_pages/1976_weather.htm

The Met Office Hadley Centre is the official owner and maintainer of the CET series. They say 17.0C and that is the only official number.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

 

The Met Office Hadley Centre is the official owner and maintainer of the CET series. They say 17.0C and that is the only official number.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

I second that; there are some things that are opinions, some that are facts, and for those in between, there are protocols.

Now here's an opinion that shouldn't be taken as more than an opinion: (sorry GW- for the post you quoted, not you); I lived in Southampton at the time of the 35.6 and I remember it (PM me and I'll drown you in anecdotes because I was at age not-quite-11 obsessed with the weather); I remember that it was a roaster there for weeks on end- nothing like the 16s of 2003 or 2006. Different.

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Met Office  Hadley        15.6c.        Anomaly          1.8c.   Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                      16.15c.      Anomaly          2.00c.

Netweather                   14.47c.      Anomaly          2.37c.

Peasedown St John    16.9c.        Anomaly         0.7c.      

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Met Office  Hadley        15.6c.        Anomaly          1.8c.   Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                      16.15c.      Anomaly          2.00c.

Netweather                   14.47c.      Anomaly          2.37c.

Peasedown St John    16.9c.        Anomaly         0.7c.      

plenty of time to get to 16C - doubt its possible to hit 17C though.

 

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I second that; there are some things that are opinions, some that are facts, and for those in between, there are protocols.

Now here's an opinion that shouldn't be taken as more than an opinion: (sorry GW- for the post you quoted, not you); I lived in Southampton at the time of the 35.6 and I remember it (PM me and I'll drown you in anecdotes because I was at age not-quite-11 obsessed with the weather); I remember that it was a roaster there for weeks on end- nothing like the 16s of 2003 or 2006. Different.

Your recollections are spot on 19th June to 6th July, with 35.6 the peak at Southampton. 1976 remains The benchmark by which all heatwaves are measured.

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