Well spring will come calendar wise in a few days, the weather on the other hand looks a cool mess up here and just a messy picture generally across the UK. Pressure looks a bit higher to the north of the UK/Greenland region than recently leading to the risk of wintriness for/from the north as we head into March.

Yep, as spring arrives high pressure will no doubt slowly build to the north so by the time April arrives a stonking High will be ankered over Greenland with a southerly track jet stream.

Thus the scene will be set for a miserable summer with plenty of 'if only it were January charts'

Sooooo predictable.

Andy

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Monday and Tuesday look like my kind of days, with lots of heavy showers around - CAPE values even picking up a tad so maybe some hail and the odd rumble of thunder mixed in?  Along with a wintry mix for those more favoured.

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6z almost gets there... almost

 

could this now be the effects of the SSW that Cohen and Co forecast to hit end of Feb?

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Yep, as spring arrives high pressure will no doubt slowly build to the north so by the time April arrives a stonking High will be ankered over Greenland with a southerly track jet stream.

Thus the scene will be set for a miserable summer with plenty of 'if only it were January charts'

Sooooo predictable.

Andy

Is that the earliest ever Summer is over post

Because its early spring and not winter. It's a south easterly element and stronger solar effects as we approach the equinox. Would need to be a direct long fetch easterly or north easterly to be cold in March. Time to give up Tally and look for spring.

Well soon the MetO would have to update their forecast from the chance of 'prolonged colder weather later' to prolonged milder weather would they not? - They have been banging on about this for weeks on end now.

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Well soon the MetO would have to update their forecast from the chance of 'prolonged colder weather later' to prolonged milder weather would they not? - They have been banging on about this for weeks on end now.

Cue the subtle change in extended text. Now 'snow in places should a cold spell develop not just 'settled'.

 

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Coming up type the end of winter.So far Dec and Jan together have been dry and sunny for England with temp above average.Don't have wind speed data abut imagine that will be well below average.The NAO was 0.35 in Dec and 0.05 in Jan.So a mildly NAO + winter so far.The synoptics had a blocking anticyclone in the  wrong place shown clearly by the hugely positive pressure anomaly (below)

A frustrating winter with virtually no snow.Looking ahead winters can only get better as we head towards a maunder minimum on the solar cycle in 2020 this being associated with cold blocking in winter.

 

january has been colder than average in this corner

GFS and GEM are coming up with the idea of a Doris II-like runner low cutting through the UK at around the 3rd March - however at over a week away, it is a long way off in forecasting terms. I wonder if ECM will come up with the same idea as well. 

Either-or, it all paints a generally changeable picture as we go into the tail end of February and into the opening days of March.

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Coming up type the end of winter.So far Dec and Jan together have been dry and sunny for England with temp above average.Don't have wind speed data abut imagine that will be well below average.The NAO was 0.35 in Dec and 0.05 in Jan.So a mildly NAO + winter so far.The synoptics had a blocking anticyclone in the  wrong place shown clearly by the hugely positive pressure anomaly (below)

A frustrating winter with virtually no snow.Looking ahead winters can only get better as we head towards a maunder minimum on the solar cycle in 2020 this being associated with cold blocking in winter.

 

Sounds potentially interesting, Roger.

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Lack of comments on not just the previous run but also the one before that really does speak volumes about our rubbish climate.

Looking at the latest runs, it's going to feel like being at Ferengi (virtual points if you do get this obscure reference).

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Lack of comments on not just the previous run but also the one before that really does speak volumes about our rubbish climate.

Looking at the latest runs, it's going to feel like being at Ferengi (virtual points if you do get this obscure reference).

Yes, the ensemble data here are probably consistently cooler than at any time during the "winter" http://meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3. 

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Yep we have entered a non weather period not warm or cold a bit wet . V boring and zero chances of snow. The search for some Spring warmth is on now not much sign at the moment. Although ecm offers some hope at day 10 for temps to hit the mid teens.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

 

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Yep we have entered a non weather period not warm or cold a bit wet . V boring and zero chances of snow. The search for some Spring warmth is on now not much sign at the moment. Although ecm offers some hope at day 10 for temps to hit the mid teens.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

 

Sadly somewhat of an outlier http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/ecmwf/graphe_ens3.php?mode=0&x=&y=&run=0&lat=56.963562753036435&lon=-2.264150943396224&runpara=0 

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Sadly somewhat of an outlier http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/ecmwf/graphe_ens3.php?mode=0&x=&y=&run=0&lat=56.963562753036435&lon=-2.264150943396224&runpara=0 

Perhaps is better we don't get fully warm to hot Spring that often lead to poor summer so having Atlantic based weather systems while we in Feb and early March is best timing.  Will be boring for now and with the temps above 10C to low teens will need little heating, we stop the 24 hours heating last week before the warmest day last Monday. There will be some useable days when sun is out and they are stronger now that warm the house just enough.

I would say that Monday looks like bringing some interesting weather if convective activity floats your boat. GFS progs 300 to 400 j/kg CAPE under cyclonic conditions for some areas, which is not to be sniffed at for this time of year.

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looks like a very wet period ahead, with the block too far north to give an easterly so we get a direct hit from the atlantic lows

a repeating pattern from previous years

 

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is this the start of something that happened 4-5 years ago cant remember what year it was, where the jet stream dived way down south and opened the doors to LP systems coming in of the atlantic to give continuous rain and wind unsettled conditions for weeks on end.

last year it was unsettled up till june then there after it was hot and dry where HP dominated.

Scotlands Ski resorts look like they will do alright out of the next few weeks.

Seems like the charts want to try and get that snow line a little further south, but doesnt quite make it.

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is this the start of something that happened 4-5 years ago cant remember what year it was, where the jet stream dived way down south and opened the doors to LP systems coming in of the atlantic to give continuous rain and wind unsettled conditions for weeks on end.

last year it was unsettled up till june then there after it was hot and dry where HP dominated.

2012 that was - I hope this year doesn't repeat that.

 

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