Slightly milder air in the far west Monday week

Yet, no other models shows this, so its fairly safe to ignore.

Generally, remaining very unsettled and quite chilly at times.

ECM turning a bit milder next week

Until then, we may have to put up with another widespread "inland" wind event over most of England and Wales on Wednesday night/Thursday morning:



At 30 mph sustained with up to 55 mph gusts for a good few hours, especially over exposed areas, it is unlikely to be anything like Doris but might loosen a few more roof tiles or fence panels already weakened by last week's wind storm.

Some cold ensembles today looking at the 06z run: - Looks like a good 8/10 of the ensembles are showing low pressure sinking south between 12th and 15th March to introduce a northerly or north easterly wind, but whether or not this will turn into a prolonged cold spell as the met office said could be a possibility is another story. - Time will tell.

If only it were December or January: -The delayed response to the SW /SSW end of Jan and beginning of Feb!? What do you think?

If only it were December or January: -The delayed response to the SW /SSW end of Jan and beginning of Feb!? What do you think?

 

I didn't see the 18z chart you were referring to, but the 0z chart looks pretty mundane and certainly not cold.  There's little point chasing 'rainbows' at this range in mid-winter, still less in March!

Ecm very different from previous runs and goes all scorchio by day 9. 11c 850s in the South 20c possible. Bring it on I say . Winter  has been a total bust!

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html

Ecm very different from previous runs and goes all scorchio by day 9. 11c 850s in the South 20c possible. Bring it on I say . Winter  has been a total bust!

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html

 

Yes - we were in for a cold snap mid month I thought! - It was persistent for several days and many runs now we see warmer and drier weather NO northerly or easterly.

 

Yes - we were in for a cold snap mid month I thought! - It was persistent for several days and many runs now we see warmer and drier weather NO northerly or easterly.

 

 

Yes - we were in for a cold snap mid month I thought! - It was persistent for several days and many runs now we see warmer and drier weather NO northerly or easterly.

 

At least we have the Greenland blocking back:

Waste of time sadly for here at any rate

Indeed - except that there remains a low possibility (10%) of a lobe of PV dropping south from the Arctic, bringing very low uppers and associated 850s. A few of the GEFS have suggested this in the last few days (circa -16 uppers into Scotland for instance).

It's not likely, but shouldn't be discounted all the time the GEFS illustrate the possibility.

 

Indeed - except that there remains a low possibility (10%) of a lobe of PV dropping south from the Arctic, bringing very low uppers and associated 850s. A few of the GEFS have suggested this in the last few days (circa -16 uppers into Scotland for instance).

It's not likely, but shouldn't be discounted all the time the GEFS illustrate the possibility.

If that materialises then maybe the Met Office's forecast/outlook for a possibility of a 'prolonged cold spell' could finally materialise - they have been flirting with this since end of January but it has never come about or materialised - we have only had colder snaps which were hardly cold anyway. Maybe they could finally be right. Just a bugger it's in March when we are all looking for some good spring warmth and we are now having a very unsettled start to Spring after what's been a dry winter.

Here is the mean pressure composite for Dec and Jan..It looks like the Azores HP had shifted NE to be just  south of the UK.Very high mean pressure.Be interesting to see how far the inclusion of Feb shifts the pattern.

Here is the mean pressure composite for Dec and Jan..It looks like the Azores HP had shifted NE to be just  south of the UK.Very high mean pressure.Be interesting to see how far the inclusion of Feb shifts the pattern.

Shows why the Alps were so short of snow!

 

Yes - we were in for a cold snap mid month I thought! - It was persistent for several days and many runs now we see warmer and drier weather NO northerly or easterly.

 

I'm guessing the 06z was, as it often is, rather different to the 00z and 12z op runs for that time point!

Having said that, at 2 weeks away what can you expect!

After a snowless winter for most of England, I would not be at all surprised if we don't get some in March.

Just as the tulips are about to burst into flower and my wife's camellias have come out, we will no doubt get some late frosts and snow to ruin the blooms.

Certainly not the most inspiring output if it's early spring warmth you're after.

Down here and it looks chilly/average occasionally mild in the reliable with rain common place. Not dissimilar up North although chillier, no real mild stuff and a chance of wintriness over higher ground and occasionally to lower levels.

The GFS12z ens continue to toy with colder options in FI.

ECM isn't too different - a few milder days before HP pulls in the Atlantic for a probably short but punchy Northerly, with cold uppers in to Scotland.

I daresay any quieter sunny days down here will feel pleasant given the rapidly increasing strength of the sun but any prolonged settled and warm weather is unlikely for the time being. Still early days and all that