The outlook seems quite mixed. I'd not be surprised to see significant snowfall over the Scottish Highlands at times and there's a low chance of a a longer cold period developing in early March.

---

Indeed Brian, although the signal seems weaker for any March cold this evening than it did this morning (thankfully!)

That could of course change again in the next set of runs. It does look rather unsettled in the medium term though and as you say quite a strong signal for hill snow in the Highlands at times.

---

BBC Scotland at 7pm had Thursdays Low moving E across Cumbria and Northumberland. Rain and gales to the south and snow across the southern uplands. Snow showers further north.

---

Plenty of hill snow in prospect in the range of possibilities offered in the ensembles.

However, for this flatlander the thoughts are now, especially after today's offering, firmly in the spring channel.

---

backdoor easterly looking possible to start "spring"

ECM doesn't quite make it but quite a lot of interest in the GEFS.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2017022012/ECM1-72.GIF?20-0

before that, a potentially nasty little low showing up for thursday

 

---

 

 

---

After yesterday's interesting charts seems to be a bit of a downgrade (story of this Winter!) so ECM having none of the height rises now so we have GFS @ 192:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=0

Vs ECM

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

Quite a difference there though both will feel a lot colder than it has been, maybe later runs will bring back the blocking to the north of the UK but if we get the high pressure further south and to the east, we might end up with quite a potent warm spell in March as we have had in February.  Early days yet and the way the models have been this Winter I wouldn't rule anything out at this stage.

The ECM weeklies issued yesterday going out to March 19th show temps always at or a bit above average (the signal by week 4 is weaker for parts of the south)

As for rain weeks, 1 and 3 look to be the wettest

These seem to be having none of the HLB into March as proposed by some and seen recently at times by a minority of the NWP on the strength of favourable background signals (final warming SSW, QBO going COD, etc, etc). 

---

 

These seem to be having none of the HLB into March as proposed by some and seen recently at times by a minority of the NWP on the strength of favourable background signals (final warming SSW, QBO going COD, etc, etc). 

The signal with the greatest correlation is probably persistence. It isn't fashionable and rarely gets a mention in here. 

---

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2017022106/gens-17-1-276.png

plenty of interest in the GEFS again, a typical example

 

---

06z Op on the warm side for the 1st week of March

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/ecm/192_mslp850.png?cb=816

ECM has the low dropping SE across us, but it then loses identity at 192 and fails to maintain the northerly.

---

 

Some Wintry possibilities end of next week!? 00z ensembles: - Look north and East!!

 

 

 

 

 

---

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017022206/gfs-0-222.png?6

06z op

Winter arrives at last!

---

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017022206/gfs-0-222.png?6

06z op

Winter arrives at last!

Yes - a proper easterly from eastern Scandinavia and western Russia with low pressure over the med- not that slack 2 day event earlier in Jan and Feb when we had the HP over the Baltics and Denmark then sinking giving us milder S easterly airflow. - WIll have to wait a few more days to see if this materialises. - Also with Low pressure over the med - means it shouldn't be a sinker or collapser.

---

Quite a battle here but 1040mb is quite a bblock - cold air very near - hopefully this will not sink due to the LP over med:

---

Not many members going below -5 now for next week mean peaks at a low of around -3 after which a steady rise till the 7th

The 12z GFS is a crock of poo in showing a very lively Atlantic.

One run, etc, of course.

---

It isn't indeed Ian and rather chilly throughout the high res section up here unfortunately. Nothing especially wintry away from the hills much of the time but enough to be nuisance value.

---