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ECM builds a nice scandi high. Obviously not cold enough for snow, but it will feel like winter again
The lack of model commentary speaks volumes.
Yes there's no interesting weather coming up...
Think we are all a bit shocked that this potentially damaging storm has appeared so quickly with 20cm of snow and 80mph winds possible!
Very much looking forward to it, it appears that a tiny northwards shift is possible and that should bring more snow my way
Colder Ensembles in FI - JUST FOR FUN:
Again, a small cluster of GFS ENS members (inc. the control) take the low road from day 6. Those that go down this route appear to allow a 'bubble' of heights to breakaway north to Greenland sending the jet south.
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
E.g.
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2017022300/gens-0-1-144.png
typical as we end winter, we see an Icelandic block on many GEFS
ECM op doesn't build it though so still high levels of uncertainty
I think you should post a chart to back it up though
Perhaps us cold fans get a bit too hooked on the Atlantic having a say. Take this current storm. Interesting weather and transient blizzards in the north. I am old enough to remember storms such as these giving temporary blizzards in the south and south west. It wouldn't take much. Plus we often get a pattern reset. The blocking hasn't delivered this winter - I say give the enemy a chance now and again!
Very unsettled Met/o 12z run, ending cold to.
The GFS goes mild once again as well:
Out of context that chart is of limited value as would every individual chart at day 11 in isolation. The 12z GEFS ensemble mean for this location bumps around at -5°C for t850s on the short ensemble set so not much sign of mildness in the realistic time period.
To be fair the idea of useful HLB is being largely dropped now, with just a scatter of 'cold' charts on offer (except on Ben Nevis 😉)
Very snowy for the hills* up here which is good. Cool and damp at lower levels which is just unpleasant.
*(That's 1000ft plus for you southerners not 4000ft plus )
Still a few colder ensembles in FI:
Fast forward a day and HP moves up toward Greenland and allows northerly winds with snow.
I saw this GFS 18Z @+384z showing a scandi HP and easterly albeit weak but why is it so mild!?