ECM builds a nice scandi high. Obviously not cold enough for snow, but it will feel like winter again

 

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The lack of model commentary speaks volumes.

The lack of model commentary speaks volumes.

Yes there's no interesting weather coming up... 

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Think we are all a bit shocked that this potentially damaging storm has appeared so quickly with 20cm of snow and 80mph winds possible!

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Think we are all a bit shocked that this potentially damaging storm has appeared so quickly with 20cm of snow and 80mph winds possible!

Very much looking forward to it, it appears that a tiny northwards shift is possible and that should bring more snow my way 

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Colder Ensembles in FI - JUST FOR FUN:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Again, a small cluster of GFS ENS members (inc. the control) take the low road from day 6. Those that go down this route appear to allow a 'bubble' of heights to breakaway north to Greenland sending the jet south.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

E.g.

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2017022300/gens-0-1-144.png

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typical as we end winter, we see an Icelandic block on many GEFS

ECM op  doesn't build it though so still high levels of uncertainty

 

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Colder Ensembles in FI - JUST FOR FUN:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think you should post a chart to back it up though 

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Perhaps us cold fans get a bit too hooked on the Atlantic having a say. Take this current storm. Interesting weather and transient blizzards in the north. I am old enough to remember storms such as these giving temporary blizzards in the south and south west. It wouldn't take much. Plus we often get a pattern reset. The blocking hasn't delivered this winter - I say give the enemy a chance now and again! 

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Bah humbug, bring on spring.

I'm impressed by the cool and unsettled outlook on the 05z ensemble data for up here.

http://meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3 

Hopefully the 12z set will be better.

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Very unsettled Met/o 12z run, ending cold to.

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The GFS goes mild once again as well:

 

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The GFS goes mild once again as well:

 

Out of context that chart is of limited value as would every individual chart at day 11 in isolation. The 12z GEFS ensemble mean for this location bumps around at -5°C for t850s on the short ensemble set so not much sign of mildness in the realistic time period. 

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To be fair the idea of useful HLB is being largely dropped now, with just a scatter of 'cold' charts on offer (except on Ben Nevis 😉)

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To be fair the idea of useful HLB is being largely dropped now, with just a scatter of 'cold' charts on offer (except on Ben Nevis 😉)

Very snowy for the hills* up here which is good. Cool and damp at lower levels which is just unpleasant. 

*(That's 1000ft plus for you southerners not 4000ft plus )

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Still a few colder ensembles in FI:

Fast forward a day and HP moves up toward Greenland and allows northerly winds with snow.

 

 

 

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I saw this GFS 18Z @+384z showing a scandi HP and easterly albeit weak but why is it so mild!?

 

 

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I saw this GFS 18Z @+384z showing a scandi HP and easterly albeit weak but why is it so mild!?

 

 

Because its early spring and not winter. It's a south easterly element and stronger solar effects as we approach the equinox. Would need to be a direct long fetch easterly or north easterly to be cold in March. Time to give up Tally and look for spring.

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Well spring will come calendar wise in a few days, the weather on the other hand looks a cool mess up here and just a messy picture generally across the UK. Pressure looks a bit higher to the north of the UK/Greenland region than recently leading to the risk of wintriness for/from the north as we head into March.

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