http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2017022512/ECM1-192.GIF?25-0

a bit of a washout

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Unsettled sums up the outlook and with pressure high to the north it means the cold is never far away from northern parts.

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'Springlike' sums it up (not temps, but convective potential).

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In the 12z runs, UKMO retains the idea of a compact runner low making a bee line for the UK by next weekend, however, unusually the normally progressive GFS and GEM aren't showing that much interest. Over to you now, ECM.

Hopefully the general idea of rising pressure as we go into the second week of March does bear fruit as that would encourage spring-like weather to take a hold - but that's a long, long way off in forecasting terms at this point.

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The 00z ECM ensemble was about as nondescript as you could get. The small number of members showing frosts over the next fortnight matched by the similarly low numbers showing temperatures reaching the teens.

Been wondering whether to plant a couple of blackcurrant bushes in the garden this early in the year. Looking at that diagram, I might as well go ahead.

 

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In the 12z runs, UKMO retains the idea of a compact runner low making a bee line for the UK by next weekend, however, unusually the normally progressive GFS and GEM aren't showing that much interest. Over to you now, ECM.

Hopefully the general idea of rising pressure as we go into the second week of March does bear fruit as that would encourage spring-like weather to take a hold - but that's a long, long way off in forecasting terms at this point.

Easterly muck up here on the ECM and generally unsettled. If E L James did model output. 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif 

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Some very mild weather from the middle of next week looking at tonight's 18z gfs:

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Both ECM and GFS showing some relative warmth for the latter half of next week again.  Roll on two months of northern blocking to follow.

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Yet again we have HP trying to build over Greenland and western Russia but this get's pushed away and Azores HP seems to live buggering things up all the bloody timey: - Time to give up me thinks!

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scene's like this look good but we need the backup  upgrades from now on:

Ensembles:

 

 

 

 

 

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Nothing good about those Tally - Certainly not in mid-March!

Nothing good about those Tally - Certainly not in mid-March!

For delivering cold and snow? - as the LP moves east it will bring notherly winds.

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Nothing good about those Tally - Certainly not in mid-March!

How about these ones?

 

 

 

 

 

 

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For delivering cold and snow? - as the LP moves east it will bring notherly winds.

give it up tally... It will be near on mid March! For your location and most of lowland southern UK it will take something exceptional for laying snow.

 

give it up tally... It will be near on mid March! For your location and most of lowland southern UK it will take something exceptional for laying snow.

 

more Snow falls at Easter... yada yada yada...

 

I wouldnt rule out a decent snowfall event somewhere in the less snow prone areas of Englad/Wales over the next couple of weeks.  Seen some decent snowfalls in the past in March. (06 springs to mind)

 

That strong sun will mean unless it remains cloudy - that drip drip will be present from latye morning and snow remaining in shadey parts by end of day.

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A quick scan through the ECM weeklies

Week 2 a touch above average but wetter

Week 4 Chiller but drier

GEM shows it turning gradually milder through next week

Yet, no other models shows this, so its fairly safe to ignore.

Generally, remaining very unsettled and quite chilly at times.

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So chilly for the next week then?

A generally cool (moreso in the north) outlook and a rather unsettled and at times windy/showery week ahead. Some snow around but that would be mainly on northern hills, albeit with a risk of transient wintriness in other places. Must be the start of spring with an outlook like that! There are signs of things getting a bit milder but at a week out there is time for things to change.

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Not feeling overly mild in that IMO.

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