Donate to browse the TWO website without adverts until 31st December 2024. You'll also get access to extra features and supporting our ongoing development.
For full details please see Advert free access on our website.
I'd say the rest of the data today will indicate whether the output such as the ECM op run is a blip or the start of (another) trend away from an impending easterly. More runs needed.
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1442.gif
A fair bit of snow around according to GFS too - and bear in mind that it really doesn't handle convective stuff off the North Sea very well!
It's only the operational ECM which is a bit rubbishy this morning, although at 144 even that shows some cold air over the UK.
It's entirely expected that there will be wobbles and I wouldn't be surprised if we see G(E)FS flop around a bit today as well.
(And I'll also use that old catchphrase from my daily rundowns... "as ever, more runs are needed!" )
GEFS looks to have firmed up on a fairly short cold incursion next week. Reminds me a little of the cold snap we had in 200(2,3,4,5???). Can't remember the year but know I was in the French Alps at the time and there was a decent covering of snowl in Berkhamsted which didn't last long.
A fair bit of snow around according to GFS too - and bear in mind that it really doesn't handle convective stuff off the North Sea very well!It's only the operational ECM which is a bit rubbishy this morning, although at 144 even that shows some cold air over the UK.It's entirely expected that there will be wobbles and I wouldn't be surprised if we see G(E)FS flop around a bit today as well.(And I'll also use that old catchphrase from my daily rundowns... "as ever, more runs are needed!" )
I didn't want to plagiarise your catchphrase .
I am always rather cautious about easterlies in the models and agree it is really just the ECM having a blip but based on recent events sometimes that is how a rapid backtrack can start. It is however far too early to suggest that is what is happening currently (and I think you could highlight the fact it won't be bone dry with every post and some may still ignore it).
Not bad output this morning but the Atlantic does appear to have more oomph which being optimistic could produce better battleground scenarios if we can get the cold air in. Sadly the ecm is the worst of the bunch and never really gets the cold in then smashes the block away in fi. Have to wait for the ensembles but we don't want this
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html
This is one occasion when those mean ensemble charts could be quite useful - there were enough easterlies in the mix yesterday to give easterlies and ESE'lies across the majority of the UK by 192, for example:
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.gif
It's perhaps not surprising then that today's operational 192 is very similar!
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif
However by 240 the 12z mean is just a col over the UK, as some members keep the easterly going and others, like the op today, bring in westerlies or SW'lies.
ECM op disappointing this morning with northern arm of the jet pushing away what is never more than a brief continental waft. Gfs Op is better but it seems after a brief Easterly/south Easterly the HP is pushed back by advancing Lp from the Atlantic and in the case of ECM the battle is lost then, GFS offers a second bite in fantasy land where the cold always lives.
Good summary of the ops.In the words of Frankie Valli "so close yet so far away"
There is better news from the GEFS 0h.Ratios of easterly Ens to mild are:
144h 60:40
180h 85:15
240h 70:30
360h 40:60
Lets hope ops get back on track.At least METO at 144h is a good start.
Why, is that a sneaky dump of snow heading for the Aberdeen area on that chart? :P
Interesting little "blip" over East Anglia too, although all very academic at this stage anyway!
Well a step back from the 0zs from winter proper, indeed BBC weather on Breakfast at 7.15 just hinted at a little cooler and quieter weather next week. GFS still has some interest, but overall it looks like another bust.
That's purely a presenter thing Jacko
Some will play it down as you know, others would ramp it through the roof
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
ECM 10 Day Mean a bit better than last night suggesting cold continental air from the ESE is the favoured option late next week and weekend with slightly milder conditions in the NW. What I can't see from any reliable output is snow on a major scale. Just cold and dry sums it up to my eyes.
Stunning day 7 mean hopefully means we can forget the Op.
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1682.html
The ECM 00z 850 ensembles are colder than yesterday's 12z for my neck of the woods, with the Op a clear mild outlier in the longer term
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/ecmwf/graphe_ens3.php?mode=0&x=282&y=2&run=0&runpara=0
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gifECM 10 Day Mean a bit better than last night suggesting cold continental air from the ESE is the favoured option late next week and weekend with slightly milder conditions in the NW. What I can't see from any reliable output is snow on a major scale. Just cold and dry sums it up to my eyes.
Coldest set of ecm means for 4 years simply stunning this morning.
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1442.html
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1922.html