I know this is going to wind people up by I'm going to say it anyway because synoptically I feel I need to! :-P
Great charts but with a most likely dry, contintental, SE'ly source (as it stands) snow *would* be at a premium IMHO..
*EDIT* The further it goes the more disturbances that could occur..
Great 18z.

I know this is going to wind people up by I'm going to say it anyway because synoptically I feel I need to! :-P
Great charts but with a most likely dry, contintental, SE'ly source (as it stands) snow *would* be at a premium IMHO..
*EDIT* The further it goes the more disturbances that could occur..
Great 18z.

Yes mate.

The word snow has very wisely not been mentioned too much yet. Its a very dry feed but eastern coastal locations from Norfolk north would benefit from this in the form of convective stuff.

SW England are also prone to blizzards in this setup too.

 

Yes mate.

The word snow has very wisely not been mentioned too much yet. Its a very dry feed but eastern coastal locations from Norfolk north would benefit from this in the form of convective stuff.

SW England are also prone to blizzards in this setup too.

Porn 

I know this is going to wind people up by I'm going to say it anyway because synoptically I feel I need to! :-P
Great charts but with a most likely dry, contintental, SE'ly source (as it stands) snow *would* be at a premium IMHO..
*EDIT* The further it goes the more disturbances that could occur..
Great 18z.

It looks like quite a stable easterly to me at the moment... however with such cold uppers I think disturbances will emerge in the flow at short notice....

What I particularly like is the fact that the cold is across much of the UK even earlier which will work in our favour. Would like the others to come into agreement though.... and a weakening of that mild sector on Tuesday would be nice. However I digress... great output this evening which would make up for the disappointing December .

Porn 

turning to rain for you - theta E @+22c....

This is getting closer now.

Just 138 hours until the first flurries start gracing the eastern coasts.

Can it, will it ? Exciting times.

We've seen monumental collapses at 72 hours before. Surely not this time.

 

turning to rain for you - theta E @+22c....

Agreed re East Kent..plenty of opportunity there for the SW..all too far away but what a great synoptic setup.

Much better alignment on the 18z with all of the U.K. under cold uppers!
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017020218/gfs-0-186.png?18
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017020218/gfs-1-186.png?18
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017020218/gfs-2-186.png?18

And with the Met expecting a cloudy high, flurries a real possibility

 

Agreed re East Kent..plenty of opportunity there for the SW..all too far away but what a great synoptic setup.

yeah - who cares anyway- 200 miles east & the 0c isotherm never gets close...

The coldest air is T114 away- this time tomorrow if the models are the same we will be T90....

oh so close....

 

yeah - who cares anyway- 200 miles east & the 0c isotherm never gets close...

The coldest air is T114 away- this time tomorrow if the models are the same we will be T90....

oh so close....

Its going to happen, might not be deep and crisp and even, but that ol east wind is gonna blow.

Pretty classic GFS pub run although people thankfully are a bit more measured and curbing their enthusiasm. 😉 I will stick to my philosophy of waiting for the ensembles but it is going well generally I would say for cold fans.

Can't help reminding myself how the prospect of a cold Feb contrasts greatly with Met office DJF outlook all those weeks ago. Just adds more egg to the pie.

Sometimes the model output and the weather itself both make fools out of even the best educated and most skilled forecasters.

Can't post charts on this device but from what I've seen tonight I'm not going to dust the sleigh off yet. IMO we'll end up with a slack continental drift into principally Eastern and NE areas with nothing more than a flurry of snow from low stratus type cloud while the South and West remain on the periphery of milder Atlantic air encroachment. I will add that I don't see that encroachment as a major battleground scenario as I feel pressure will be too high to the SW forcing the Jet Stream to be pushed NE to the NW of Britain and not allowing enough energy under the ridge or undercutting as is the term used here. So rather cold and principally dry is the overall message. Not saying I'm right but taking all models and output as a whole on tonight's 12zs I think that's where this will end up by the end of next week.

ECM 12z ensemble for London:

A sharp swing towards a cold outlook and it kicks in within 48 hours (followed by a brief milder interlude).  Remarkably solid agreement on maxima falling away to between 0 and 6C around days 8-10.  Thereafter by far the largest cluster shows maxima of 3C amd sharp frosts overnight.  A limited amount of scatter - as is inevitable - towards the end, with a cluster returning us to near-normal temperatures.

The rainfall ensemble shows less precipitation than was the case a day or so ago - but still a couple of wet spells to get through.

ENS are more than interesting tonight