Interesting output this morning. My gut feel is we'll end up with a period of drier and rather cold weather. Nonetheless, there is a chance of a potent easterly developing. 

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Seems the models are in a state of transition as the suggestion of an influence from the east grows.
How and if we get there, appears all models differ so we cannot even call if we may end up with something in between, there's too many variables.
So very interesting at the moment with a storm watch, followed hopefully by snow watch. Not a bad combination for those that like weather.

Not particularly convincing ecm ensembles for De Bilt, we hope its a case of the Op leading the way. 

 

https://meteoijsselmuiden.nl/knmipluim

 

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Ignore the ECM 00z

MH: 00Z EC is a distinct outlier when compared against the ENS, few members support it, but majority markedly milder. 00Z EC unlikely to verify.

Seems the models are in a state of transition as the suggestion of an influence from the east grows.
How and if we get there, appears all models differ so we cannot even call if we may end up with something in between, there's too many variables.
So very interesting at the moment with a storm watch, followed hopefully by snow watch. Not a bad combination for those that like weather.

Quite an amazing turnaround when you consider this time last week all we had was endless rain and wind with mild temperatures in FI.  As we have a potential easterly I expect wobbles on the output so at this stage it's the trend I am watching but as Brian said, certainly a chance of a very potent easterly and perhaps should it occur the most potent since 1991 arguably. 

Let's hope we get some even better runs at earlier and earlier time frames- 10 day pressure chart looks improved on yesterday in terms of northern blocking:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

Ignore the ECM 00z

MH: 00Z EC is a distinct outlier when compared against the ENS, few members support it, but majority markedly milder. 00Z EC unlikely to verify.

 

No doubt tomorrows 00z will be a mild outlier compared to the ENS with Matt suggesting that it won't verify and a stonking easterly is on the way. 

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Ignore the ECM 00z

MH: 00Z EC is a distinct outlier when compared against the ENS, few members support it, but majority markedly milder. 00Z EC unlikely to verify.

why on earth would you ignore it! I would follow a chart over what his thoughts are

Ignore the ECM 00z

MH: 00Z EC is a distinct outlier when compared against the ENS, few members support it, but majority markedly milder. 00Z EC unlikely to verify.

It may be a bit of an outlier in terms of surface temperature magnitude, but when you look at dewpoint...

and wind direction...

it looks to me that there is a cluster with good support for a decent easterly.

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The ECM 0z op (+control) may be on the colder end of the ensembles...but the ensemble suite as a whole have trended much colder in the last 24 hours. The 10 day mean says it all, and a massive change from a day or so ago.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

Of course there are no guarantees on anything....as Clint Eastwood said, "if you want a guarantee buy a toaster' ,

but the synoptic are perfectly poised for a cold/mild battle.

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The 00z ECM is a curious one because it sends a small but potent cold pool our way much earlier than we have been seeing on the output. The shape of the Scandinavian high is crucial as it can bottle up the cold to the east, send it south to the Balkans, or, once or twice a century, deliver a direct hit of the core of the cold to the UK.

The ingredients are there for a memorable easterly but to deliver it would require a large slice of luck.

Either way I think we will see forecasts start to alter towards a colder drier picture today or tomorrow. The raw output on my phone app has already shifted to give overnight frost as early as this Saturday, whereas a couple of days ago it was showing 8C minima.

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017020106/gfsnh-0-108.png?6

06z so far

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why on earth would you ignore it! I would follow a chart over what his thoughts are

Indeed ballamar. There's far too much divergence within the models to form any concrete opinion though in the case of MH when has this stopped him.

 

A Slight set back in the easterly!? Where is the Scandi HP?

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017020106/gfsnh-0-108.png?6

06z so far

The one thing that strikes me about this chart is all the cold upper air over the other side of the Atlantic from us. Is this good or bad from cold weather/snow point of view for the UK?

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GFS op really doesn't want to back down on the Easterly. By next Wednesday the cold uppers have started to arrive in the UK. All sorts of fun before that with several low pressures although it looks like France will get battered because strongest winds will be on the southern side of the lows.

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06z gfs brings the easterly in around 8th and 9th: - Only a week today!

 

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A Slight set back in the easterly!? Where is the Scandi HP?

 

That was the 00Z. It's not really a setback - thre Scandi high is still there but a bit far north on that run. The 06Z seems to have better alignment thus far.

 

Edit - in fact this is just about as perfect as it can get for us - direct hit!

 

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So this morning the output is more optimistic I think for cold. My continued neutral appraisal of the GFS ensembles for London :-

There are now, dare I call it several?, 3 or 4 pt's down to -10C towards the end of the run. Suddenly there are snow rows appearing with one of 7 for the 14th Feb. However on a more cautionary note there is still a very big spread either way after a week from now although there is a main cluster around the 0C mark. Of course were it to turn out to be and easterly the 850C 's don't need to be that low as we have already seen this winter. With more support from ECM (although I can't put a great deal of stock on a single operational run a week away) I think the chances of cold and snow for somewhere in the second half of the month are currently on  the rise.

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That's the 00Z. It's not really a setback - thre Scandi high is still there but a bit far north on that run. The 06Z seems to have better alignment thus far.

Yes realised that - This looks better for 10th:

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That was the 00Z. It's not really a setback - thre Scandi high is still there but a bit far north on that run. The 06Z seems to have better alignment thus far.

 

Edit - in fact this is just about as perfect as it can get for us - direct hit!

 

Just hope this holds for us this time! 🙂 - Notice how cold it's becoming in eastern Europe and Baltics again!"?

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