Worst chart of the night

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

and the best....

...can't find one (although GEM +240 is quite tasty)

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Nothing remotely to get excited about but the ECM mean in the 8-10 day period is markedly lower on the 12z as compared to the 6z on de bilt with a fair cluster hovering around 0-2 degrees mark. I still think the tracking of our low to the south-west at T96 is going to have a fairly big impact on the subsequent positioning of our high pressure and the chances, slight that they are, of pressure falling over the south of France / Italy to facilitate a colder outlook towards the Christmas period.

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1947/Rrea00119470118.gif

This is the chart that is always trawled out to show how things can go from seemingly hopeless to stunning in a few short days....

or this one....

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1991/Rrea00119910120.gif

or this one...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120101116.gif

In fact the last one does look remarkable similar to the forecasted set up in a day or two :)

eg ECM http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm721.gif

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The Xmas day GEFS12z postage stamps are pretty interesting and worth watching in the coming days:

PS: Click through for almost full sized version

These were interesting as quite a few cold ones appearing. The 2m temps also indicate a dip at this time. May be hope for last few days of the month🤔😋

Martin

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1947/Rrea00119470118.gif

This is the chart that is always trawled out to show how things can go from seemingly hopeless to stunning in a few short days....

or this one....

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1991/Rrea00119910120.gif

or this one...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120101116.gif

In fact the last one does look remarkable similar to the forecasted set up in a day or two :)

eg ECM http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm721.gif

Very true Squish but the big difference between 2010 and today is that MetO were bullish about a change to much colder weather in their 30 dayers in 2010. No sign of this this time and that ECM 240 chart is one of the most horrendous I have ever seen in winter with the Euroslug stretching across the Atlantic right up to the Siberian steps and beyond.

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Very mild all the same Marcus with temps into the teens even on that chart. So in any brightness away from the rain you could still see 14/15 degrees.

The first teen number is thirteen.....anyway, GFS has eleven and twelves with the odd thirteen.

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Can the good old Pub Run offer us any festive cheer?

Or will it have donned a Salvation army uniform, forsaken the blessed nectar, and become a mealy-mouthed temperance bar?

 

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Can the good old Pub Run offer us any festive cheer?

Or will it have donned a Salvation army uniform, forsaken the blessed nectar, and become a mealy-mouthed temperance bar?

 

it does actually build a Scandi HP, but it doesn't help us I'm afraid because the Euroslug refuses to die.

Please administer some slug pellets pronto!

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Quite a change on the GFS run this evening from as early as T144.

Quite a change on the GFS run this evening from as early as T144.

The poor dear is trying its best, but unless we can get a trough digging into Europe, it will come to nought. We need heights to drop over France,Spain and central Europe. Let's see how the run progresses.

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Bah humbug to this model watching lark.😡

Here's an interesting graphic from NCEP which supports the trend towards higher pressure over Europe in the winter months.

 

This is from my archive from 1903. A comparison of Febs 1895 and 1903 with a normal Feb. Just look at the normal Feb chart from over 110 years ago

 

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No, the 18z fails - the Euroslug just won't budge and there is not undercut or trough disruption.

Kill the Euroslug!

P.S. Scotland may do OK out of it however.

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Further similar changes on subsequent runs could just change things sufficiently to improve the options for cold. Probably doesn't matter all that much what the run does from here but things are certainly more interesting than they were looking earlier in the day.

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Yes 18Z isn't looking as bad. NAO technically goes neg for a bit, jet is slightly further south thanks to a slightly weaker euro high and pressure rise way to the NW is stronger and a little more stable. Every chance it won't come to anything, but I prefer this run to 12Z! Fingers crossed for a slightly less dire set of ens.

No record warmth there ...................................thank god

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Yes 18Z isn't looking as bad. NAO technically goes neg for a bit, jet is slightly further south thanks to a slightly weaker euro high and pressure rise way to the NW is stronger and a little more stable. Every chance it won't come to anything, but I prefer this run to 12Z! Fingers crossed for a slightly less dire set of ens.

I agree

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12z ECM ensemble shows how the 12z GFS op was a real mild outlier. The ECM op itself was on the milder side too. Plenty of rather cooler ensemble members on offer this time next week

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12z ECM ensemble shows how the 12z GFS op was a real mild outlier. The ECM op itself was on the milder side too. Plenty of rather cooler ensemble members on offer this time next week

I still think a few more runs at least are needed from the big three before we can be anywhere near sure about developments early next week and what follows on from there.

Before anyone gets the wrong idea, I'm not saying a change to cold will happen, merely that the remainder of December may not end up being the mild & zonal write-off that some have put it down as.

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I still think a few more runs at least are needed from the big three before we can be anywhere near sure about developments early next week and what follows on from there.

Before anyone gets the wrong idea, I'm not saying a change to cold will happen, merely that the remainder of December may not end up being the mild & zonal write-off that some have put it down as.

Bingo - some of the mild-ramping yesterday was way over the top. Writing off the rest of December and (in one case) January too, marvellous stuff. If you could accurately predict the weather three weeks out like that you wouldn't be posting on a weather forum, you'd be a millionaire!

Yes, there is a chance we might get a record-warm month. There's also a chance I'll win Euromillions tomorrow!

Yesterday's 12z ECM control run showed a typical zonal setup, with warm sectors alternating with colder periods, not exactly record-breaking stuff but again a nice change (IMO) from the mild gunk of late. The ensembles continue to show a colder cluster and as long as that's the case you (not you, David, a more general "you") simply cannot say with any certainty that it looks mild forever and a day.

 

 

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