Everything is chopping and changing so much wrt the Bank Holiday weekend, it makes things very difficult for anyone hosting or planning to attend an outdoor event.

Despite the chaotic nature of the model runs lately, it is possible to pick out an overall tendency to increase the frequency and extent of ridges over NW. Europe. I read an interesting contribution from Tamara on the other site last week which suggested that the models are erroneously trying to take the atmosphere toward an El Nino-type pattern, which causes them to give the jet stream too much shove and therefore underestimate the staying power of Euro ridges and their ability to extend north to the UK.

When the MJO plots finally updated yesterday, I think it was telling that a progression across the Pacific (phases 5-6-7) had been dropped in favour of a re-cycle to the Indian Ocean. Now while it's true that the responses do alter between the seasons a bit, it was IO activity that kept inflating Euro ridges and undoing the modelled cold spells last winter so it may well be that the models are displaying the same incorrect tendencies that they did back then.

If so, that bodes well for warm weather in the near-future at least - perhaps often dry too if the ridges can gain as much influence compared to original projections as was the case with the week just gone.

Of course, there will probably be some mighty heat plumes about at times given some good pre-conditioning across NW Africa and Spain over the past month, which bring the threat of instability but of course some will be very pleased to hear of such prospects 

This is all just potential, but at least it's positive potential 

What happened to last night's predicted storms? Not a single "bang" here - and very little rain either.

What happened to last night's predicted storms? Not a single "bang" here - and very little rain either.

they happened in sussex and kent thats for sure amazing display

Updated comment on the wishful forecast for wishing and predicting no thundery showers on Saturday and Sunday, Saturday brought a very heavy shower that lasted 3 and half hours Sunday was dry, but by 0100 Monday of Sunday Night I got part of the big Thunderstorms shower that gave a spell of heavy rain and some CG's tststm's with loud bangs and thunder rumbles. I recorded one in the middle of the MCS storm.

Large parts of SE England were on the receiving end of it last night. It cleared by about 2:55 a.m.

😀.

This being the 11th post today, with no imminent heatwave: I would say that's good for end of May. There's no dam on posts in here- keep it coming Two-ers. An interesting point is the muddle over our lats & longs with successive noses of highs being projected, and lows squidging in from the ocean. Makes for uncertain, & interesting, times.

I've been watching for signs of an adjustment toward more in the way of ridging in our vicinity as has been a tendency of recent times. This may be the models reeling back in their enthusiasm for a surge of Pacific trade winds to set in motion a boost to the Atlantic jet; the results will hopefully be less dramatic than some recent runs (GFS 18z, ECM 12z and 00z) have shown.

Yes... the ECM 00z.

Still a bit vicious from this model, but given that even GEM is looking less autumnal than it was, I'm inclined to feel that ECM is just being a right old *line aborted* 

Not enjoying the look of the latest output at all. Looks extremely unsettled with plenty of low pressure around.

Is it the curse of recent summers where everything falls apart as we hit summer proper?

I'm going to Glastonbury towards the end of June.. after last year I'm desperately hoping for a better time of it. 

Not enjoying the look of the latest output at all. Looks extremely unsettled with plenty of low pressure around.

Is it the curse of recent summers where everything falls apart as we hit summer proper?

Doubt it - early June is known as the "European Monsoon" as it more often than not involves an unsettled and cooler spell.

 

Doubt it - early June is known as the "European Monsoon" as it more often than not involves an unsettled and cooler spell.

 

 

Good! Hope it's just a blip. :-) 

Summer is nearly here, Oh no, rain is forecast in the next 10 days . Summer is over. Roll on Winter 

Looking at the 12z's, no real surprise to see the continuation of an Atlantic themed outlook from the weekend onwards. GFS probably the pick of the bunch as the SE escapes the worst of it with high pressure never truly relinquishing here, and temperatures hanging around the 20-22C max, perhaps warmer given its tendency to underestimate maximum temperatures.

ECM looks a little more Atlantic driven but again the SE has the best of it, which is pretty expected really given the pattern. In fact, on the 8th June a small low pressure system drags up some pretty warm air off the continent to heat up the SE - probably would see 25C and thundery showers if that came off.

GEM keeps it cool and unsettled for the most part but it's low pressures are pretty feeble and so is the model 

All in all, nothing out of the ordinary for late May. Best to get to the SE if you want to keep the warmth, though 

Watching with interest on GFS ensembles for London as they upgraded the warmth to 10C and lot of lines going for 15-20C and one 1 going for 22C.  There will be a short lived unsettled spell early next week so need more few days runs to see this firming up for another period of warm to hot weather.

To my eye, and my recollections, the Pattern from Sunday onwards currently is backing Low Pressure and strong breezy winds occasionally windy some days but at the moment it looks like the GFS is playing a cat and mouse game chasing off any extended Low Pressure, while from 120-144 hours the East and SE UK is being shown to see showers and West SW winds and cooler even at the 144hr mark, and what we have over next 72 hours is Azores High ridge and very warm weather in East SW and SE and Central UK plus South UK with increasing amount of sunshine, and dry with it.

At the moment it needs a saying that we shall wait further UKMO and GFS plus ECMWF runs needed to show what influence and effect the next Low Pressure has on UK as the Low at 120-144 cross us and move off East NE.

The GFS is sticking to it's guns with the consistent Low vs High setup showing up later Tuesday and during the Wednesday.

But I think the Atlantic PV Low Pressure has a very good indeed chance of gripping us - with chance of heavy rain and warm mild sector strong winds and then cooler fresher with numerous scattered blustery or squally showers with hail and thunderstorms in good measure.  

But you never know come GFS, UKMO and ECMWF 12z today and tomorrow to see if which wins.  If I compare to January this year and November last year - then I say the GFS will follow the ECMWF and UKMO and back the wet and windy Low Pressure.

A repetitive pattern is in charge but it has broken up this March-May to allow some very warm and sunny Sceuro W Europe Azores High combo to also play a role that does differ from what we had from the March to early July period of last year 2016. It generally improved from mid Feb of this year as it became less cold, but the dry period for mid spring this year allowed the thundery breakdowns that we have seen from about 11-12 May this year which was followed by another 8 days when the changeable often very warm and dry weather resumed with another bout or two of heavy showers some prolonged for my area.

This years weather pattern is much nicer than compared to same times last year so actually we have a mixture of both!.

😎☀️⛈☔️😅.

Stay on topic. Less of the histrionics, more of the analysis. 

12z GFS looks just lovely! 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif

FI, but still...