It's that time of year again where we deserve a winter moaning thread of some sort, do you think!?

So we had two minor snow events during the final two weeks of November as far south as the SW moors - albeit over higher ground!? I had the feeling that these HP would sink and we would end up with flat westerly/zonal weather and get 'stuck in the rut'.

We are a few days into winter and I am already frustrated with the models and runs - which don't seem to show anything inspiring or eventful in terms of cold or snow!? Bare in mind a colder than average first half of the winter is being forecasted!? - If this is the case then we really do need to see some colder model runs coming in at least during the final week of December or beginning of January 2017.

There doesn't seem to be anything cold, wintry or exciting for the next 3 weeks let alone week and beyond. Just 12 to 13c with a south to south westerly wind. I don't know how the Met Office keep forecasting below average temperatures in their 6 - 30 day outlooks!?

Just nothing stormy, which in some cases will be good but due to the position of the high pressure it looks like it could be mild or overcast and damp with drizzle which is boring. There will be little if any frost either.

This chart couldn't get any worse even if it tried, if you're looking for cold wintry weather.

At least last year we had some weather and occasional north westerly's - this just shows 12c, 13 & 14c with HP over Iberia, Spain, Portugal into France and central Europe. This will only give the south of the UK damp and perhaps drizzly conditions - maybe just overcast and boring!

Run the CFS V2 charts up until Christmas and beyond!? - Where is the blocking pattern that was due to set in or return mid month!?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=174&mode=0&carte=0&run=0

Feel free to place your winter thoughts, opinions, rants or moans here.

Am I being too negative...!?

Otherwise I look forward to hearing your thoughts, especially Richard's in Aberdeen.

 

 

---

I feel this place will be the in place to be over the winter months. I'm not seeing anything all that cold on the horizon no matter what signals or models you use, slightly below average at best with a few frosts thrown in for good measure, all standard winter fayre really.

When does Gav start his look at spring videos, I've a feeling that maybe a March 2013 type could be in the cards again. 😎

Yes, Solar very poor output this morning, and for the 'front loaded' winter theory, do or die over the coming days I feel.

If only there had been no modern era, when seemingly getting a cold spell was much more simple than the baffling array of hurdles that apparently need to be jumped in order to get HLB to impact on the UK.

At least Tamara isn't promising any jam tomorrow. Or even the day after that.

 

---

 

At least Tamara isn't promising any jam tomorrow. Or even the day after that.

 

You know the game is up when even Tamara accepts things have changed

I doubt we will see any low level snow in southern England this season. We are in a run of very mild winters. Its not nice, but there are more important things in life

---

How about moaning that people have written off three months of a season on day 4?

---

How about moaning that people have written off three months of a season on day 4?

 

You can understand Beast's frustration Doc, promise of a front loaded winter that is about to descend into a zonal pattern with Low fuelling energy spilling off the Eastern Seaboard.

South easterners like Beast want to see an easterly - as Retron has said it is now 20 years since there was a mid-winter Beast; a shocking indictment of the changes we have seen in our weather patterns.

 

---

 

 

You can understand Beast's frustration Doc, promise of a front loaded winter that is about to descend into a zonal pattern with Low fuelling energy spilling off the Eastern Seaboard.

South easterners like Beast want to see an easterly - as Retron has said it is now 20 years since there was a mid-winter Beast; a shocking indictment of the changes we have seen in our weather patterns.

 

Actually I don't understand how anyone can be frustrated about winter 4 days into the season.

---

 

Actually I don't understand how anyone can be frustrated about winter 4 days into the season.

I think the frustration is because of the very unusual Autumn patterns and lack of zonality plus the METO outlooks, comments from IF, etc..

If it had and was currently zonal then the chase would be on for a pattern change with possibilities later in the winter, which would be more typical.

But instead the promise is coming to nought with zonality coming and everyone having the 6-7 week shelf life of this pattern so common in the modern era at the back of their minds.

This year is rather like having a great pre-season but finding yourself 1-0 down after 5 minutes in the first match.

---

 

Actually I don't understand how anyone can be frustrated about winter 4 days into the season.

Well the models are showing nothing of substance regarding deep cold up to around day 10, so technically, I think the first 14 days can be written off.

---

Are we allowed to gloat as well? 

Another gorgeous day here after a nice frosty start.   I think if we include the last week of November there have been more good winters days here than last year already

All downhill from here then .....

---

Worth noting to all of those coldies who are already reaching for the prozac, many of the famous cold winters never properly got going until near Christmas. Winters 1978-79, 1985-86, 2009-10 and even the beloved 1962-63, plus many others, never started right at the beginning of December.

---

Well the models are showing nothing of substance regarding deep cold up to around day 10, so technically, I think the first 14 days can be written off.

I'd agree there, which means a sixth of the season is safely written off. Typically the next thing is people posting how 62/3 didn't kick off until late winter, how 1947 started even later... but that's already started, I see!

Thankfully there remain signs of a general cool-down after midmonth, but by gum the next week is going to stink... there's just something inherently wrong with going to work at 6 AM in June temperatures when it's December!

Incidentally I was chatting to the new lady who's joined the department at work. She's 21, fresh out of Uni, and likes snow. She's lived in north Kent all her life, including her Uni years. It dawned on me that she's never actually seen proper cold weather, the highs of -2C, powder snow and icicles and the rest. You know, the sort of thing we had a couple of times a decade (or more) until 1996. Well, she has seen them but as a baby she wouldn't remember any of it.

So on a whim when we in the office were discussing whether it'd snow this year or not, I looked up the Feb 91 forecast that's on YouTube. She couldn't believe that it could get so cold here. She was even more incredulous when I mentioned that we used to get subzero days where the snow didn't melt at least a couple of times a decade, if not more (ie in the 80s). We really are very much overdue a proper easterly. I just hope to goodness we get one, if only so people like my colleague can see what our winters are capable of!

 

---

Worth noting to all of those coldies who are already reaching for the prozac, many of the famous cold winters never properly got going until near Christmas. Winters 1978-79, 1985-86, 2009-10 and even the beloved 1962-63, plus many others, never started right at the beginning of December.

Yes indeed.  Plus winter extends well into March with the right conditions. 

No need to take a chill pill though, with time let the chill become the pill.

---

 

I'd agree there, which means a sixth of the season is safely written off. Typically the next thing is people posting how 62/3 didn't kick off until late winter, how 1947 started even later... but that's already started, I see!

Thankfully there remain signs of a general cool-down after midmonth, but by gum the next week is going to stink... there's just something inherently wrong with going to work at 6 AM in June temperatures when it's December!

Incidentally I was chatting to the new lady who's joined the department at work. She's 21, fresh out of Uni, and likes snow. She's lived in north Kent all her life, including her Uni years. It dawned on me that she's never actually seen proper cold weather, the highs of -2C, powder snow and icicles and the rest. You know, the sort of thing we had a couple of times a decade (or more) until 1996. Well, she has seen them but as a baby she wouldn't remember any of it.

So on a whim when we in the office were discussing whether it'd snow this year or not, I looked up the Feb 91 forecast that's on YouTube. She couldn't believe that it could get so cold here. She was even more incredulous when I mentioned that we used to get subzero days where the snow didn't melt at least a couple of times a decade, if not more (ie in the 80s). We really are very much overdue a proper easterly. I just hope to goodness we get one, if only so people like my colleague can see what our winters are capable of!

 

The last great icy spell here in Ireland was back in December 2010 when temps over much of the country, including here locally, did not rise above freezing for 16 solid days with night time lows peaking between -15 to -18c here in the west of the country. We tend to do better for snow and coldness during northerly or north-easterly flows, which Nov/Dec 2010 largely consisted of. The winter of 2009/2010, was quite cold also and though more prolonged than the cold spell in the following winter, was less extreme in terms of temps.

(A snip of a RTE TV forecast from Dec 2010)

I agree with you that true easterlies have become virtually non-existent on this side of the world. I think the last real continental sourced winter easterly occurred in January 2008, but it was very shortlived. If I remember correctly. it did bring a short spell of heavy snow here as it broke down from the west as fronts moved in from the Atlantic. I would be surprised if you didn't see some cold temps during that spell in the SE of England Retron?

---

The last great icy spell here in Ireland was back in December 2010 when temps over much of the country, including here locally, did not rise above freezing for 16 solid days with night time lows peaking between -15 to -18c here in the west of the country. (A snip of a RTE TV forecast from Dec 2010)

I remember looking enviously at the forecast minima over Northern Ireland back in 2010 - Castlederg saw several minus double-digit temperatures, something which I doubt has happened here more than a handful of times in the last 100 years. I'm not surprised that the Republic of Ireland saw similarly cold temperatures - over here, for 97% of the UK, it was an utterly remarkable spell. Just my luck I lived in the 3%!

...January 2008, ...I would be surprised if you didn't see some cold temps during that spell in the SE of England Retron?

Nothing of note - the coldest max at nearby Manston in 2008 was 3.8C.

http://en.tutiempo.net/climate/01-2008/ws-37970.html

This underlies what I mean when I say deep cold is needed here. 850s in that Jan 2008 spell didn't even fall below -5C, let alone the -10C benchmark!

 

---

This underlies what I mean when I say deep cold is needed here. 850s in that Jan 2008 spell didn't even fall below -5C, let alone the -10C benchmark!

Too true Retron. I really hope we do get a proper shot at a real easterly this winter. No doubt it would bring you plenty of snow! Such easterlies are usually very dry here but I don't mind that because there is nothing as exhilarating as being out in a strong, ultra dry and ultra cold breeze.

---

Imagine if it was the 4th if June and there was no sign of a 30c+ heatwave on the horizon    Why, summer is over .....

---

It is rare that anyone setup is classic for everyone. I would consider these classic easterly setups. Ok not perfect for all but evidence great synoptics can still occur

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120090202.gif 
Ok so this was a 24 -36 hour spell only but it was very cold. The Sunday evening I remember it was -4c across parts of Eastern England (Leeds, Luton etc) . Was a classic easterly day with snow grains turning to heavy convection as the cold uppers moved in . Overnight loads of heavy snow showers giving significant accumulations . Granted it didn't last long with a front from the SE bringing more snow here but rain near coast.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120101130.gif 
Classic easterly setup. Storm of the century for parts of NE Midlands . Appreciate the uppers are not cold enough for the SE coast but perhaps it was too early in the season.

---

I wonder if this thread will reach 50 pages by the end of February!

Got to say the 'extended winter' has got of the a great start here with the coldest November in Cumbria since 1993 easily beating 2010 due to the cold first half, the month was characterised by frequent frost, (4 nights below -5c) sunny days and even a few snow showers. Very unlike most of the Novembers of the last 20 years.

So no moaning from me 'just yet'.

Andy

---

I'm sure it wont take Andy too long to get into his stride...  Meanwhile, my moaning is reserved for the fact that we are still in astronomical (real) autumn, and winter commences on the winter solstice on December 21st.  With the exception of 2010 and 1981, all recent severe winter spells have occurred in the period 26 December - 23 March, with the incredible March 2013 being the most impressive incarnation recently, laying waste as it did to transport and school for a day or two here on the south coast.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/34970218

 

---