Here's an interesting graphic from NCEP which supports the trend towards higher pressure over Europe in the winter months.

Not a trend any of us coldies would have wanted to see. It is one thing to identify such a trend, but it is another thing to explain why it has happened. Is it just yet another multi-decadel ossilation? Clearly we have lived in the wrong period for enjoying UK winters.

Is it irreversible or can we get rid of the Euroslug when we vote for Brexit?

 

 

You might well get your wish with charts like this! That's about as crap as you can possibly get for coldies.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

 

Bloody hell. That's the worst yet. Absolutely horrendous for winter.

I'm not even looking - don't want the horrors of 2013-14 to haunt my dreams.

 

 

You might well get your wish with charts like this! That's about as crap as you can possibly get for coldies.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

 

Ugh  I can see more record breaking rainfall totals if this pattern continues. Being overly mild is fine by me, but given how much rain has fallen, we really do need a pattern change to colder/drier 

 

I'm not even looking - don't want the horrors of 2013-14 to haunt my dreams.

I actually enjoyed that winter. The more lively the better for me

Incredible ECM, surely some favoured parts could see 17/18C next Thursday if that comes off ?

 

 

You might well get your wish with charts like this! That's about as crap as you can possibly get for coldies.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

 

Hopefully not another bartlett xmas like 2011. That was just awful - very mild SW winds temps up to 14C here  it couldn't have been more different to the previous one with a max of -3C & snow on ground. Then of course we saw big changes after boxing day.

 

Not a trend any of us coldies would have wanted to see. It is one thing to identify such a trend, but it is another thing to explain why it has happened. Is it just yet another multi-decadel ossilation? Clearly we have lived in the wrong period for enjoying UK winters.

Is it irreversible or can we get rid of the Euroslug when we vote for Brexit?

I fear they won't send us their easterlies when we leave - not that they send them now anyway 

I would agree that ECM is impressive if you like a mild set up.

What is interesting is the lack of Northern Blocking on most output as well as the seemingly relentless jet which explains why the latest GEFS ensembles are not fantastic either for cold.

Incredible ECM, surely some favoured parts could see 17/18C next Thursday if that comes off ?

Incredible ECM, surely some favoured parts could see 17/18C next Thursday if that comes off ?

I don't want to drag this too far off-topic, but what's the December temperature record? Any chance we're in with a shout of breaking it? 

 

I don't want to drag this too far off-topic, but what's the December temperature record? Any chance we're in with a shout of breaking it? 

December 2nd 18.3C in the Highlands 1948.

Would be truly exceptional to break that record now we are heading towards the middle of the month but wouldn't rule it out. 

Incredible ECM, surely some favoured parts could see 17/18C next Thursday if that comes off ?

Quite different to GFS , dont get sucked in by one model, miles too far off

 

Quite different to GFS , dont get sucked in by one model, miles too far off

Here's an interesting graphic from NCEP which supports the trend towards higher pressure over Europe in the winter months.

Brian thanks for this.Yesterday a friend of mine said he felt that the winter weather was increasingly demonstrating a NW/SE split and were their any statistics that demonstrated such  a trend.I guess this is pretty good example of such a trend on the  pressure front.

From MetO website.

December 2nd 18.3C in the Highlands 1948.

Would be truly exceptional to break that record now we are heading towards the middle of the month but wouldn't rule it out. 

Thanks 

You never know. Chances are it won't be broken, but it's not impossible looking at some charts this evening 

I do think that METO have done a good job in their forecasting so far this Autumn/Winter.They have had the big picture right- NAO + for November and so far December.In the shorter term they have flagged up possible interruptions to the zonal flow ie cold snaps but have put appropriate caveats/probabilities on these.

I think METO do an excellent job on the  whole and we should give them more credit.( Beware Mr Osborne is seeking to sell off whatever he can and that could include the Met Office)

Time to get real now..abandon hope of a pre Christmas cold spell and ramp up the possibility of a record mild December..we sensed a pattern change was due..we were correct..it could get even milder ! 

It does still feel like September or October. If we are going to stay mild, then let it be very mild to warm but sunny

What a disaster. This must be the worst outlook I have seen since the internet era. Perhaps  on a par 98/99