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doctormog
09 April 2024 16:29:37

Looking for warmth? We're about 4C above the April mean!

Originally Posted by: GezM 



I think we are a little below the April mean here with very little in the Way of warmth (or dry weather). On the plus side Thursday and Friday both look decent enough and pleasantly warm. I would settle for warm or dry but the latter is definitely more needed.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
10 April 2024 07:51:47
WX temp chart shows only a small patch of freezing weather over N Russia, but a cool lobe extending quite a long way south from this; in week 1 over NW Europe but in week 2 further east displacing the very warm weather near the Urals (see snowmelt problem in 'Unusual weather' thread). For Britain, on the edge of the cooler weather in week 1, temps at first near norm, but a hint that some milder weather from Spain will approach the south in week 2.

GFS Op - winds going round to a brisk SW-ly under the direction of 1030mb HP over France, declining after Sat 13th as LP runs SE-wards over the Northern Isles and into the N Sea with brief N-lies to follow. By Wed 17th HP has re-asserted itself and becomes centred over Britain 1025mb, only to give way to a shallow LP from the north 1005mb Tue 23rd covering Britain, followed by a weak pressure rise.

ECM - similar to GFS though the LP Sat 13th promotes a deeper trough over Britain as it passes by. The last frame (Sat 20th) suggests that the HP may give way to a milder LP from the west, not north.

GEFS - Quite generally mild/very mild to Sun 14th, when a sudden drop to cool with very good ens agreement, followed by a few days a little below norm with moderate agreement, and from Fri 19th mean stays near norm amidst increasing disagreement (op & control cool later on). Very little rain in the S, not much more in the north after a a wet couple of days around the 14th, also bits and pieces cropping up in far NW.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
GezM
  • GezM
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10 April 2024 07:59:26

I think we are a little below the April mean here with very little in the Way of warmth (or dry weather). On the plus side Thursday and Friday both look decent enough and pleasantly warm. I would settle for warm or dry but the latter is definitely more needed.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Apologies for the NIMBY post. I was referring to Fairweather's area (South Essex) along with the CET. Of course, further north I realise that it has been much colder and particularly miserable in eastern Scotland 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
+1
Retron
10 April 2024 10:12:36

Apologies for the NIMBY post. I was referring to Fairweather's area (South Essex) along with the CET. Of course, further north I realise that it has been much colder and particularly miserable in eastern Scotland 

Originally Posted by: GezM 


Likewise - my post about how warm it's been relates to down here (again, replying to Fairweather's mention of how cold it's been). While acknowledging how cold it's been in much of Scotland (they pinched our easterlies! 😉), I do wonder how much moaning would ensue if we had even an average spring month for once down here, let alone a cold one!

...and the wildlife certainly isn't suffering down here. At least 2 pairs of pigeons are nesting in the old plum tree in my garden, and when I was mowing the lawn earlier the garden was buzzing with bees, hoverflies, normal flies and a few butterflies. It's been so warm, in fact, that everything seems ahead of itself!

 
Leysdown, north Kent
doctormog
10 April 2024 10:41:50

Apologies for the NIMBY post. I was referring to Fairweather's area (South Essex) along with the CET. Of course, further north I realise that it has been much colder and particularly miserable in eastern Scotland 

Originally Posted by: GezM 



No apologies needed and you are quite right to highlight the warmth. 

Slightly off-topic, but I wonder how much the SWW(s) have caused this spring’s unsettled conditions (southerly tracking low pressure). Hopefully there are tentative signs that this pattern may be ending or at least easing.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Retron
10 April 2024 11:03:22


Slightly off-topic, but I wonder how much the SWW(s) have caused this spring’s unsettled conditions (southerly tracking low pressure). Hopefully there are tentative signs that this pattern may be ending or at least easing.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Hmm... IIRC we'd been having those southerly-tracking lows since last autumn, a long time before the SSWs happened. It's why it's been the stormiest winter for many years down here and is why it's been so wet.

It could be that the recent prolonged SSW has prolonged the pattern beyond its natural ending, but we'll never know for sure! What I do know is that zonal winds at 10hPa/60N rebounded and are, for the first time in months, a fair bit stronger than normal. The "final warming" will be a fortnight late this year which, in theory, means the "European monsoon" would be pushed back further into June than normal... but who knows these days, the old rules no longer seem to apply.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202404090000 
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
doctormog
10 April 2024 11:13:50

Hmm... IIRC we'd been having those southerly-tracking lows since last autumn, a long time before the SSWs happened. It's why it's been the stormiest winter for many years down here and is why it's been so wet.

It could be that the recent prolonged SSW has prolonged the pattern beyond its natural ending, but we'll never know for sure! What I do know is that zonal winds at 10hPa/60N rebounded and are, for the first time in months, a fair bit stronger than normal. The "final warming" will be a fortnight late this year which, in theory, means the "European monsoon" would be pushed back further into June than normal... but who knows these days, the old rules no longer seem to apply.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202404090000 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Yes, you’re probably right, perhaps it just exacerbated the issue.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
Chunky Pea
10 April 2024 11:19:08

Hmm... IIRC we'd been having those southerly-tracking lows since last autumn, a long time before the SSWs happened. It's why it's been the stormiest winter for many years down here and is why it's been so wet.

It could be that the recent prolonged SSW has prolonged the pattern beyond its natural ending, but we'll never know for sure! What I do know is that zonal winds at 10hPa/60N rebounded and are, for the first time in months, a fair bit stronger than normal. The "final warming" will be a fortnight late this year which, in theory, means the "European monsoon" would be pushed back further into June than normal... but who knows these days, the old rules no longer seem to apply.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202404090000 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



I sometimes think that broader scale weather patterns become locked in their own momentum. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
GezM
  • GezM
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10 April 2024 12:37:38
Well the GFS Ops 6z shows a rare thing these days. An anticyclone which moves steadily west to east across the UK next week before declining and moving into the continent. If it pans out it will allow for the classic gradual transition from cool/cold to mild/warm then back to cool/cold. 

I'll believe it when it is much closer in the timeframe ..... 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Jiries
10 April 2024 17:39:44

Well the GFS Ops 6z shows a rare thing these days. An anticyclone which moves steadily west to east across the UK next week before declining and moving into the continent. If it pans out it will allow for the classic gradual transition from cool/cold to mild/warm then back to cool/cold. 

I'll believe it when it is much closer in the timeframe ..... 

Originally Posted by: GezM 



Perhaps won't happen at all or if does will be not enough recovery to restore to normal state which require severeal months so not possible anymre with the stupid global warming making UK climate more colder, wetter and duller than average.
Retron
10 April 2024 17:44:08

Perhaps won't happen at all or if does will be not enough recovery to restore to normal state which require severeal months so not possible anymre with the stupid global warming making UK climate more colder, wetter and duller than average.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


You really shouldn't have moved north... it's been another dry day down here, washing dried and the lawns mowed in the sunshine - before it got too strong.

And the UK's climate is getting warmer, of course, not colder, as the lack of snow and repeated heat records show... YOUR view of it is colder, as you're comparing it to the SE. 😉

Anyway, the models continue to show high pressure having more of an influence... at this rate, could well be a drier than average month quite widely down here (turns out the 7mm from the storms the other day was very localised, less than a mm just a few miles east or west).
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
Jiries
10 April 2024 18:09:07

You really shouldn't have moved north... it's been another dry day down here, washing dried and the lawns mowed in the sunshine - before it got too strong.

And the UK's climate is getting warmer, of course, not colder, as the lack of snow and repeated heat records show... YOUR view of it is colder, as you're comparing it to the SE. 😉

Anyway, the models continue to show high pressure having more of an influence... at this rate, could well be a drier than average month quite widely down here (turns out the 7mm from the storms the other day was very localised, less than a mm just a few miles east or west).

Originally Posted by: Retron 



No difference from here to the south coast as I read alot on NW south coast posters also saying how duller, colder and wetter as everywhere in the UK.  Only get warmer with false warm night temps to use to cheat and claim UK getting warmer when actually not true.  
+1
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
10 April 2024 19:45:43

No difference from here to the south coast as I read alot on NW south coast posters also saying how duller, colder and wetter as everywhere in the UK.  Only get warmer with false warm night tmeps to use to cheat and claim UK getting warmer when actually not true.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

I don’t live in the South, I’m East Midlands and we’ve had some days in the high teens recently, up to 19c.  Yes we’ve had mild nights too, no frosts for quite a while.  So I certainly wouldn’t say it’s been colder here.
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
+1
Spring Sun Winter Dread
10 April 2024 22:54:22
The last 7 months or so, starting with that remarkable heatwave in September, have been staggeringly warm. There can't be many warmer like for like periods in the record .
But it's been accompanied mostly by abnormally grey skies and high rainfall plus a lack of individual very warm days which makes it much less noticed and tabloid friendly ! 
 
+2
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
11 April 2024 07:15:49
WX temps continue the theme of a lobe of cooler air pushing south between something warmer moving north, both to the west (over Spain) and east (over the Caspian). The difference from yesterday is that this 'lobe', currently over Germany/ Poland moves westwards in week 2 to affect Britain/ France/  Germany, rather than eastwards. To match this, the warmth in Spain makes no progress but east of the Caspian it is insanely hot for April. The Atlantic and nearby areas are fairly dry (bar N Scotland) and the the Caspian area extremely dry. In between there are patches of rain over various parts of continental Europe with the heaviest in week 2 in S France.

GFS Op - Current HP over France moves W to mid-Atlantic with wind direction for Britain going round from SW to W to NW to N by Wed 17th. Pressure remains high to the W of Britain through to Wed 24th while LP develops over Belarus, so some chilly winds off the N Sea. The HP then retreats to Greenland and an extended trough develops from Norway to S France between that and HP intensifying over Russia. Hence strong NE-lies for all of Britain after the 24th.

ECM - begins to differ from GFS at the end of its run with HP after Wed 17th moving in from the Atlantic, rather than standing off,  to become centred 1035mb Irish Sea Sun 21st, and significantly deeper LP over Belarus.

GEFS - temps dropping sharply from mild to cool Sun 14th (min ca 4C below norm on 17th), and only recovering slowly, slower than shown yesterday and indeed the mean never quite gets above norm through to Sun 27th. At that time the op run is coldest and about 8C below norm, and supported also by the control run in the N. Dry for the most part throughout the period esp in SW, occasional small rainfall peaks further N and W.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
Rob K
11 April 2024 09:32:17
Is it spring yet?

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2024041100/gfs-2-312.png?0 

Looks like April 1981 all over again.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
picturesareme
11 April 2024 10:04:43

You really shouldn't have moved north... it's been another dry day down here, washing dried and the lawns mowed in the sunshine - before it got too strong.

And the UK's climate is getting warmer, of course, not colder, as the lack of snow and repeated heat records show... YOUR view of it is colder, as you're comparing it to the SE. 😉

Anyway, the models continue to show high pressure having more of an influence... at this rate, could well be a drier than average month quite widely down here (turns out the 7mm from the storms the other day was very localised, less than a mm just a few miles east or west).

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Must be a localised thing for Kent as we're already approaching the monthly rainfall average here. Temperature wise it's been fairly nondescript for April.. some chilly nights but a couple of warm days in the mix. Sunshine has been lacking just like most of the year so far.
The Dub Version
11 April 2024 12:08:00
Hows the back loaded winter going?

Any chance of lowland southern england snow?

or is everything still day 10?
 
Berkshire
Gandalf The White
11 April 2024 12:15:35

Hows the back loaded winter going?

Any chance of lowland southern england snow?

or is everything still day 10?
 

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 



Did you somehow forget to hit ‘Post’ when you were last here 3 weeks ago?
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Taylor1740
11 April 2024 13:33:46
Finally seeing some solid support for a switch to a colder and drier pattern after 9 months of this awful mild and extremely wet pattern we have been stuck in.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
The Dub Version
11 April 2024 14:21:02

Did you somehow forget to hit ‘Post’ when you were last here 3 weeks ago?

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



It snowed 3 years to the day ,today.

Whats the issue?

April is the snowiest month in southern england

Winter only ended march 21 😉
 
Berkshire
David M Porter
11 April 2024 16:27:41

Finally seeing some solid support for a switch to a colder and drier pattern after 9 months of this awful mild and extremely wet pattern we have been stuck in.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



👍👍👍

Certainly not before time either. The wet period we have had since last summer/autumn has at times been like 2012 all over again, and the very wet period we had then lasted a similar length of time from what I remember.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
11 April 2024 18:51:48
A dry spell now may just come in time for some farmers.  Over the past few days, we have finally seen flooded fields starting to dry out.
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
White Meadows
11 April 2024 20:56:43
Still dull and not at all spring like on the south coast. Seems like we’re stuck in a forever November. Very wet, often windy, the sun only appears for brief spells, lots of low cloud and mist. 
Still holding out for the first high teens Celsius, let alone 20!
pretty astonishing for mid April in these ‘modern times’.
And the Beeb long ranger alludes to an unusual polar vortex. 
 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
12 April 2024 07:34:17
WX temp summary: after a few days in which a broad area of cooler weather has pushed well south across NW Europe, there is some relaxation. Week 1 as before with that cooler weather in place, and some warmth to east and west of it; week 2 milder weather begins an advance from the SE on a broad front, albeit modest and patchy, reaching Austria and Poland. Spain is cooler but the Caspian still ridiculously hot. Rainfall over much of Europe in week 1, Spain and England excepted; in week 2 the focus is on France and the western Med, some spilling over into England while Scotland is drier. (The rather cold weather noted under GEFS later on does not show up distinctly , Britain just staying cool)

GFS Op - as yesterday, HP over France moving out into the Atlantic with winds backing from SW round to N by Wed 17th with Britain on the edge of LP covering much of NW Europe. The Atlantic HP then moves E-wards across Britain to cover all but the far NE 1020mb Sat 20th but declines leaving Britain in a col between LPs in Baltic and Biscay. The Baltic end of this trough takes over, at first projecting NE-lies into Britain and then moving SW-wards to reach Holland 1005mb Fri 26th and sticking their with its imported cooler air affecting England while HP south of Iceland offers fine weather for Scotland.

ECM - something like GFS until Wed 17th though the concluding N-lies for this period are stronger under the influence of a better-defined LP moving from Faeroes to Denmark Mon 15th/Tue 16th. The subsequent HP remains further to the west of Britain to Sat 20th with a N-ly cast to the weather, and only at end of run Mon 22nd does the HP begin to move E-wards with the LP then setting up over Ukraine rather than the Baltic.

GEFS - mild dropping to cool Sun 14th and slowly recovering to just below norm in the SE Sat 20th even somewhat above elsewhere, esp in the N, after which the modest amount of agreement between ens members disappears. The mean then stays a couple of degrees below norm throughout. By Fri 26th both op and control are the coldest at about 7C below having been milder earlier. Small amounts of rain at any time generally.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5

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