theweatheroutlook

johncs2016
05 January 2022 22:35:58

Originally Posted by: dagspot 

Mild and cloudy/wet for Scotland next week by all accounts. No wonder Hugi Bear is bored.


Looks like a case of normal service resumed for next week then, especially going by what this winter has been like so far.


 

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
tallyho_83
06 January 2022 12:08:34

BBC outlook looks rather dire:


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook


 





Monthly Outlook


 Last updated 








Summary


Unsettled, mostly mild. No sustained cold expected




This week will see a changeable pattern with a series of fronts crossing the United Kingdom. By the middle of next week a more settled pattern is expected for most areas. We expect this to continue to the end of January with no signals yet towards a cold winter pattern.





 


to – 


Changeable with some cooler days




Wednesday starts fair except in eastern coastal areas where some isolated showers are possible. A band of rain will move over Northern Ireland and Scotland from early on Thursday, before moving across all parts through the day. Winds should pick up and some showers may be wintry over northern Britain. Showers should slowly clear before more rain moves over Northern Ireland and the Western Isles later Friday. Temperatures will be 1-2C below average.
On Saturday a further band of rain will move in from the west to affect most areas through the day as it becomes breezy. Sunday will bring more of the same although it may stay dry in south east Britain. Temperatures over the weekend should be around 1-2C above average for the time of year.






to – 


More settled by mid-week but wetter in the north.




By mid-week, high pressure could shift further to the north and may centre itself near the Bay of Biscay and Western Europe, bringing a mild pattern with drier weather over the south of the UK.
Monday will see wetter weather over Northern Ireland and Scotland and then possibly Northern England later in the day, with other areas remaining dry and mild. All regions apart from Scotland become drier through Tuesday. Conditions remain settled into Wednesday, but western Scotland may still see some light rain at times. This could remain the pattern into the following weekend, with temperatures expected to be around 2-3C above average overall.
However, if the high pressure fails to build across Europe, it would allow the Atlantic storm track to move further south across Northwest Europe bringing wetter and windier conditions. We estimate this possibility at 35%.






to – 


Wind & rain at times. No sustained cold periods




Into the third week of January, ¬ confidence starts to get lower with the weather models performing poorly so far. Low pressure is favoured from Northwest to Eastern Europe with high-pressure west of Iberia. This would bring most of us a wet and windy pattern with near seasonal temperatures.


Uncertainty persists in to the last week of the forecast. However, high pressure is favoured over the Central North Atlantic extending to Iberia with low pressure over Northwest Europe and Scandinavia. This would maintain average temperatures over Northern Ireland and Scotland and keep it mild for England and Wales. This pattern would bring more wind and rain.


Should the high become stationed over Western Europe we could see a drier, less windy pattern. We currently estimate this as a 40% chance. The Polar vortex remains strong, which maintains the milder winter conditions and so it is hard to see any sustained cold over the next few weeks.






Further ahead


The next update will look ahead into the first week of February. A sustained cold spell is still possible in late winter so we will see if we get any indication of a change in the pattern.





Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Gavin D
06 January 2022 15:16:32

Tuesday 11 Jan - Thursday 20 Jan


Cloudy with some light rain or drizzle and light winds in the south on Tuesday, but clearer conditions and sunny spells spreading to most, if not all, areas through the day. From Wednesday, high pressure is expected to build in the south, bringing settled conditions and mostly light winds. Temperatures trending near average to mild, although there is still a risk of some overnight frost and fog. The north is likely to continue to see spells of cloud and rain, with some stronger winds. Confidence decreases through the period, but a return to generally more unsettled conditions across the UK is likely later on, with western and northwestern parts expected to continue to see the wettest and windiest weather. Temperatures likely to remain around average.


Friday 21 Jan - Friday 4 Feb


Conditions expected to remain broadly unsettled and changeable through this period with occasional spells of wet and windy weather moving across from the Atlantic. Western and northwestern parts likely to see the wettest and windiest conditions overall whilst eastern and southeastern parts probably seeing the most of any drier spells. Temperatures likely to be slightly above average overall throughout but there remains a possibility of short-lived colder spells. Colder spells likely to bring a risk of snow at times, though mostly over high ground in the north.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/


 

Gavin D
06 January 2022 20:24:42

Next week



  • Driest in the south

  • Rain at times in the north

  • Temperatures close to average


 


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/59897540


 

dagspot
07 January 2022 08:29:17
Cars stuck on M8 M74 and M77 motorways around Glasgow
Not heaviest falls of snow Ive ever seen but with most ignoring ‘work from home’ and noone really used to snow on roads its unsurprising…


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-59906385 
Neilston 600ft ASL
Gavin D
08 January 2022 20:34:12

BBC monthly outlook


Summary


Changeable, mostly seasonal to mild temperatures


 


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook


 

Gandalf The White
08 January 2022 20:45:16
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jan/07/lightning-high-arctic-rise-scientists-worried 


Well spotted; that’s a quite extraordinary development.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


nsrobins
08 January 2022 22:44:42

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


BBC monthly outlook


Summary


Changeable, mostly seasonal to mild temperatures


 


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook


 



That’s all settled and decided then 😂

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gavin D
09 January 2022 19:36:36

Friday 14 Jan - Sunday 23 Jan


A continuation of largely settled conditions is most likely as we head into the middle of January with high pressure in charge across the south of the country. Most areas will be dry with any spells of rain and stronger winds likely to be restricted to northern parts of the country. The settled weather will bring widespread overnight frost as well as fog patches, these sometimes freezing. Amounts of sunshine are uncertain with areas of fog and low cloud potentially lingering all day in places, especially in the south. How long the predominantly settled conditions persist is uncertain with an increasing chance of some unsettled spells returning to many parts as we head towards the end of the period.


Monday 24 Jan - Monday 7 Feb


A more unsettled regime is most likely during late January and into early February with spells of wet and windy weather followed by brighter but showery interludes. Northwestern areas are likely to be wettest with southern and eastern areas seeing the best of any drier interludes. Overall temperatures are most likely to be near or a little above average though some colder interludes are possible. Snow could fall to lower levels at times in any colder interludes but is most likely over higher ground in the north.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/


 

Gavin D
12 January 2022 18:53:38

BBC monthly outlook


Summary


A more unsettled pattern from late January


____________________


 


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

tallyho_83
12 January 2022 22:36:57

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


BBC monthly outlook


Summary


A more unsettled pattern from late January


____________________


 


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook



No change then as has been the case last week and week before's update all they did was state the obvious is about models performing poorly. On the plus side they did change the date stamp - A very uninspiring outlook indeed for mid winter, especially given the fact the monthly outlook never mentions frost either let alone sleet or snow for the North. Gosh! Even in winter 15/16 and milder zonal winter with the PV of doom of 19/2020 we had frost in the forecast and experienced it and the north had transient snow from colder north westerly incursions!


 


I can't instinctively and intuitively understand how we could go through a whole winter month without any air frost or snow even for the north? A bit odd eh?

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


dagspot
14 January 2022 18:34:46

Seems someone knows something we don’t…


Glasgow Live Weather

Neilston 600ft ASL
nsrobins
16 January 2022 00:14:48

Originally Posted by: dagspot 


Seems someone knows something we don’t…


Glasgow Live Weather



Highlighting this drivel is becoming tiresome.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gandalf The White
16 January 2022 00:38:10

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


 


Highlighting this drivel is becoming tiresome.



Ah, AccuWeather; that US operation that seems to use, even in the post-Joe Bastar** era, hyperbolic language to dress up their generally woeful predictions.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


dagspot
17 January 2022 22:00:38

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


 


Highlighting this drivel is becoming tiresome.



You’ll know what to avoid then… 

Neilston 600ft ASL
nsrobins
17 January 2022 22:44:11

Originally Posted by: dagspot 


 


You’ll know what to avoid then… 



It’s difficult to avoid when it’s referenced on social media and discussion groups. They survive touting their lies because people endow them with hits. 

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gandalf The White
17 January 2022 23:04:51

Originally Posted by: dagspot 


 


You’ll know what to avoid then… 



It’s just click bait and anyone who falls for it is adding to their supposed ‘relevance’.  But ‘relevance’ doesn’t necessarily correlate with ‘validity’ or ‘accuracy’; certainly not in the case of Accuweather’s often feeble efforts about UK weather.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gavin D
20 January 2022 09:58:19

BBC monthly outlook


Summary


A more unsettled pattern from later this month


 


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

tallyho_83
20 January 2022 10:26:30

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


BBC monthly outlook


Summary


A more unsettled pattern from later this month


 


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook



So after a milder December and and exceptionally mild start to January and a mild month we are expecting another mild February? - Great then! - So IOW - no change!?


This is a tweet from Matt Hugo:











 




 



 





 








 










Matt Hugo

 



@MattHugo81




·


 






"Increasing evidence now that the strat and trop will properly 'connect' into Feb, to me, there really is only one primary outcome and that is a zonal +NAO end to winter. Few analogs for winter to date as well reinforce this. This could end up being a winterless winter..."



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


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