Welcome Guest! To enable all features please Login. New Registrations are disabled.

Notification

Icon
Error

49 Pages«<3738394041>»
Options
Go to last post Go to first unread
Offline Russwirral  
#761 Posted : 22 October 2019 10:35:54(UTC)
Russwirral

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 21/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 3,009
Location: Wirral

Originally Posted by: idj20 Go to Quoted Post



Unfortunately in turn that would deliver strong south west gales to the far South East, including Kent.

How depressing - and it's not even deep Autumn yet

 

Autumn is already half way done.  We're only just over a month away from Winter.

Offline idj20  
#762 Posted : 22 October 2019 12:56:07(UTC)
idj20

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 28,422
Man
Location: Folkestone (near the coast)

Originally Posted by: Russwirral Go to Quoted Post

 

 

Autumn is already half way done.  We're only just over a month away from Winter.



Yes, but this is Kent we're talking about where it is basically one long Autumn between October and April. 

Back on topic, GFS seems bullish about a compact but rapidly developing "runner" low zipping ENE-wards across Southern England on Friday. It's unlikely to be another Oct '87 or St Judes '13 but may be enough to give me the first proper blow of the season, along with bringing yet more unwanted rain to central parts. 

However, the other models are much less keen on it so it's either GFS overcooking things or may end up being right on the money, like it usually is when it comes to this kind of set up from afar. 


Offline Bolty  
#763 Posted : 22 October 2019 12:57:17(UTC)
Bolty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/06/2016(UTC)
Posts: 3,728
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m asl

06Z continues the trend: cold air undercutting the rain band and turning it to snow over higher ground. Looks to me like evaporative cooling will also play a part with this, if of course the GFS has it right.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Offline Saint Snow  
#764 Posted : 22 October 2019 13:17:08(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 51,195
Man
Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: idj20 Go to Quoted Post

Yes, but this is Kent we're talking about where it is basically one long Autumn between October and April. 

 

It's different up here.

Autumn lasts between October and October.

 

 

"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Tim A  
#765 Posted : 22 October 2019 13:41:30(UTC)
Tim A

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 09/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 14,693
Man
Location: Leeds

Originally Posted by: Bolty Go to Quoted Post

06Z continues the trend: cold air undercutting the rain band and turning it to snow over higher ground. Looks to me like evaporative cooling will also play a part with this, if of course the GFS has it right.

 

Lots of spread on the GFS ensembles for Friday night. Most don't show any snow.  Other models such as ECM are not entertaining the idea.  The Met Office automated data is nowhere near snow conditions at any point *(8-9c).

 

 

Tim

NW Leeds (1 mile east of LBA)

187m asl

Offline Russwirral  
#766 Posted : 22 October 2019 14:06:56(UTC)
Russwirral

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 21/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 3,009
Location: Wirral

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

 

 

It's different up here.

Autumn lasts between October and October.

 

 



London and the south east enjoy drier and warmer conditions by default.  Us up north can experience Autumn at any part of the year, but only have the opportunity of some summer weather sometime around June.

 

youd think that would give us access to decent winter weather, but the south east does better again at that too. :(

Offline tallyho_83  
#767 Posted : 22 October 2019 17:49:55(UTC)
tallyho_83

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 15/07/2009(UTC)
Posts: 11,064
Location: Devon

This little feature coming in from the SW meeting the Northerly winds on Friday could have been a big snow event if this occurred in winter!??

Look at the huge temp gradient/contrast!? I think the GFS Op is going a bit OTT though!?

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (10m asl)

--------------------------------------

Winter 20/21 stats for Exeter of far:

Coldest temp recorded -5.0c on 31/12/2020 - 01/01/2021

Coldest Daytime maxes recorded: +2.0c 09/01/2021 +1.5c 09/02/2021

Mildest daytime max recorded: 15.0c 28/01/21, 02/02/2021

No of morning frosts: 22

No of days with snow falling: 5 - 24/01/2021 (Slushy deposit), Light snow flurries/snow grains 08/02/2021, Snow flurry 09/02/2021. A dusting of 0.5-1.0cm on the morning of 11/02/2021. Light snow/ice pellets 13/02/2021

No of days with sleet falling: 6

No of days with rain/cold rain: = Lost count.

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Offline LA2B MeridFlowEuro09  
#768 Posted : 22 October 2019 19:23:49(UTC)
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 29/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 2,965
Man
Location: Forest Gate London

There is good agreement to 144hrs which is good, with the forecast and pattern agreed up to that point if you look at the ECMWF and UKMO Model.

There could be rain and snow in Scotland for Friday and Saturday.  And Friday has heavy rain for S SE and ESE England on this coming Friday.

Chilly for much of the UK on Saturday to Monday (3 days with winds blowing in from the NW then North.

What the Models do for after T144 is up in the air at the moment.  Wintry showers for Scotland on Saturday as well quite possible mixed with rain at lower levels.

Will the Eastern Mid North Atlantic High stay over the Western UK on Monday to Wednesday next week- GFS says No, but ECMWF says yes.  Will this forecast upgrade or downgrade for cold weather fans.  The 12z ECMWF and 12z UKMO has a blocked out Low Pressure for the Midwest North Atlantic to our WSW and South southwest with UK and NE Atlantic High Pressure hold firmly- to T144 at Monday next week- ECMWF has cold Northerly over UK even on Wednesday/ Thursday next week while today’s 12z GFS brings the Low P NE across the UK for same time period, then drags the cold Northerly as it passes SW to ENE.

We live in a very active part of the North Atlantic indeed. It reduces the size and extent and duration of low temperatures and winter snow, and it reduces the length of very warm and hot sunny weather.

Our weather breaks down often after we get some either cold and wintry weather or get dry and sunny weather. Brief and also longer lasting Unsettled and wet weather with mild winter weather or cool chilly and cloudy conditions in summer's. It used to be colder and snowier and frostier both day and night, but nowadays we often see above average temperatures both day and night as our Planet Earth is entered into a warm human induced Global Warming Phase. Long fetch of warm air SW winds over longer distances- reduce the chances for the UK to be affected by cold plunges and spells, living on the NW Europe part fully exposed to Atlantic mildness.

Laiq B.

Home: East London

Location around 61m ASL.

Offline ballamar  
#769 Posted : 23 October 2019 06:53:17(UTC)
ballamar

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 1,846
Location: Essex

Way off in terms of any accuracy but a very interesting chart

http://www.wetterzentral...maps/GFSOPNH00_384_1.png

Offline DEW  
#770 Posted : 23 October 2019 06:53:32(UTC)
DEW

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 15,677
Man
Location: Chichester 12m. asl

Get the current LP out of the way this weekend, then HP for a while until about 31st when both GFS and ECM have LP coming in from SW and linking up with cold LP over Scandi. GFS has an impressive N plunge on the 8th but that's a long way off and GFS' record isn't good.

GEFS consistent with this but better agreement than yesterday on temps below average

His Majestie asked me whether that weather was usual in our Island. I told him that in 40 years I never knew the like before. (Charles II talking to his jailer in Carisbrooke, Isle of Wight (the 'Island'))
Offline Heavy Weather 2013  
#771 Posted : 23 October 2019 07:03:24(UTC)
Heavy Weather 2013

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 16/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 5,115
Location: Muswell Hill, North London

The output at the moment is fascinating. Cool to cold at times for this time of year.

 

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Offline nsrobins  
#772 Posted : 23 October 2019 07:36:12(UTC)
nsrobins

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 18,595
Location: South Hampshire

High res GFS still keen on the ‘zippy’ low Friday afternoon - risk severe gales S UK. The persistence of this feature lends some credibility to it so one to watch.
Neil

Wickham, Hampshire 25m ASL (on river)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Offline idj20  
#773 Posted : 23 October 2019 08:27:27(UTC)
idj20

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 28,422
Man
Location: Folkestone (near the coast)

Originally Posted by: nsrobins Go to Quoted Post
High res GFS still keen on the ‘zippy’ low Friday afternoon - risk severe gales S UK. The persistence of this feature lends some credibility to it so one to watch.


Although it looks like Southern coasts and the far South East actually missing out on the bulk of the general rain with Wales and the Midlands getting the brunt of that (possibly some wintry stuff over the Pennines) while here at Kent it'll be a windy but mostly dry night - at least until the squally-like cold front passes over us in the small hours of Saturday morning. 
Either or, it should do a good job in keeping the local nightclub drunks holed up indoors. 

Offline Saint Snow  
#774 Posted : 23 October 2019 09:40:56(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 51,195
Man
Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: idj20 Go to Quoted Post

Either or, it should do a good job in keeping the local nightclub drunks holed up indoors. 

 

Nah, thy'll just wear a slightly thicker skin-tight t-shirt 

 

 

"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline idj20  
#775 Posted : 23 October 2019 15:30:34(UTC)
idj20

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 28,422
Man
Location: Folkestone (near the coast)

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

 

 

Nah, thy'll just wear a slightly thicker skin-tight t-shirt 

 

 



 Or just drink an extra couple of shots so that they are even more drunk to notice the rain and wind after closing time. 

Anyway, back on course.

GFS seems keen on a quieter settled week next week with HP taking control, but ECM less so with another LP popping up out of nowhere in 2nd half of week. Here's hoping for more of an agreement on the quieter theme in the 12z updates.

Offline Russwirral  
#776 Posted : 23 October 2019 17:46:27(UTC)
Russwirral

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 21/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 3,009
Location: Wirral

Forecast rapidly going downhill for friday into saturday for central uk. Torrential rain from 3pm friday til midday saturday

Could be widespread flooding with alot of places seeing 80mm+

Offline Brian Gaze  
#777 Posted : 23 October 2019 17:51:35(UTC)
Brian Gaze

Rank: Administration

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 55,798

Yes. This morning I flagged up the possibility of a very wet Saturday. Definitely something to watch. All in all it continues to be a very interesting period of weather.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Offline idj20  
#778 Posted : 23 October 2019 19:38:00(UTC)
idj20

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 28,422
Man
Location: Folkestone (near the coast)

Originally Posted by: Russwirral Go to Quoted Post
Forecast rapidly going downhill for friday into saturday for central uk. Torrential rain from 3pm friday til midday saturday

Could be widespread flooding with alot of places seeing 80mm+



And yet  only 7 mm by the end of the weekend forecast for Kent, and that's the top end of predictions.

The Kent Rain Deflector still has some life in it.  

Offline fairweather  
#779 Posted : 23 October 2019 23:28:17(UTC)
fairweather

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/01/2017(UTC)
Posts: 6,363
Location: S.Essex

From the beginning of November there appears to be a lot of cold weather moving in to Eastern and Northern Europe, hardly surprising for the start of November but was seriously lacking last year.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Online CreweCold  
#780 Posted : 24 October 2019 00:28:17(UTC)
CreweCold

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/02/2008(UTC)
Posts: 1,230
Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Originally Posted by: Russwirral Go to Quoted Post
Forecast rapidly going downhill for friday into saturday for central uk. Torrential rain from 3pm friday til midday saturday

Could be widespread flooding with alot of places seeing 80mm+

The ground is already sopping wet around these parts from well above average summer rainfall and then further bouts of heavy rain so far this autumn. 

There will be big issues with flooding around the Midlands, Wales and N England if this turns out to be a wet winter.

Crewe, Cheshire

55 metres above sea level

Users browsing this topic
49 Pages«<3738394041>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Code of conduct

× FORUM Settings Posting League USER PHOTOS Sky Eye Camera Sky Eye Live Sky Eye Gallery MODEL CHARTS Arome Arpege ECM ECM ENS GEM GEFS GFS HIRLAM Icon Met Office UM Fax CFS GFSP